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Power Rankings: Valspar Championship
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April 26, 2021
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM
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Corey Conners enters the Valspar Championship 9th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
Editor's Note: Tyrrell Hatton has withdrawn after a positive COVID-19 test.
Early within the lineup of tentpole stops from March through July is a subset of something for everyone. It starts pre-Florida Swing with a World Golf Championship/additional event doubleheader, continues with another a month later – except the WGC is a Match Play – and lingers all the way to last week’s team event in New Orleans. It’s a harrowing stretch of competition, er, opportunity.
The Valspar Championship represents the other side of it, but it’s not for the weary.
Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club’s Copperhead Course perennially ranks among the most challenging courses every season. Scroll past the projected contenders for more on the brief history of the tournament, what’s new this year – other than its position on the schedule – and mre.
RELATED: The First Look | How the field qualified
POWER RANKINGS: VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP
RANK PLAYER COMMENT 15 
Keegan Bradley Maybe this is the year. Profiles well on paper given tee-to-green proficiency, but inconsistent putting has limited him to a 2-for-5 slate without a top 30. In 2021, he’s 7-for-7 with four top 25s.Maybe this is the year. Profiles well on paper given tee-to-green proficiency, but inconsistent putting has limited him to a 2-for-5 slate without a top 30. In 2021, he’s 7-for-7 with four top 25s.
14 
Charl Schwartzel Sunday’s playoff loss wasn’t entirely without its reward. He moved into position to strike for a berth into the PGA Championship. Won here in 2016 and answered with a solo sixth in 2017.
Sunday’s playoff loss wasn’t entirely without its reward. He moved into position to strike for a berth into the PGA Championship. Won here in 2016 and answered with a solo sixth in 2017.
13 
Viktor Hovland A curious fit in his debut because of the smaller greens. His worthy irons will be pressured to find the targets so that he’s not scrambling for pars. It’s been two months since his last top 20.
A curious fit in his debut because of the smaller greens. His worthy irons will be pressured to find the targets so that he’s not scrambling for pars. It’s been two months since his last top 20.
12 
Scottie Scheffler He fits everywhere on paper but this is his first go at Copperhead and its Snake Pit. He’s proven to adapt nicely at a young age (24), despite inexperience and on challenging tracks.
He fits everywhere on paper but this is his first go at Copperhead and its Snake Pit. He’s proven to adapt nicely at a young age (24), despite inexperience and on challenging tracks.
11 
Ryan Palmer In his title defense with Jon Rahm at the Zurich, he settled for solo seventh, thus extending consistently strong form. Palmer has been a semi-regular at Copperhead where he’s 4-for-4 since 2011.
In his title defense with Jon Rahm at the Zurich, he settled for solo seventh, thus extending consistently strong form. Palmer has been a semi-regular at Copperhead where he’s 4-for-4 since 2011.
10 
Tyrrell Hatton Editor's Note: Tyrrell Hatton has withdrawn after a positive COVID-19 test. Fourth straight start since a T18 at the Masters. Teamed with Danny Willett for a T8 in NOLA. Hatton is a superb fit for tough tracks. Seeking a reversal here after a second-round 81 in 2019.
Editor's Note: Tyrrell Hatton has withdrawn after a positive COVID-19 test. Fourth straight start since a T18 at the Masters. Teamed with Danny Willett for a T8 in NOLA. Hatton is a superb fit for tough tracks. Seeking a reversal here after a second-round 81 in 2019.
9 
Charley Hoffman The 44-year-old is sizzling. Since a T7 at Pebble Beach in mid-February, he’s 8-for-8 with three top 10s among six top 20s. Also 8-for-13 with five top 25s at Copperhead; T18 in 2019.
The 44-year-old is sizzling. Since a T7 at Pebble Beach in mid-February, he’s 8-for-8 with three top 10s among six top 20s. Also 8-for-13 with five top 25s at Copperhead; T18 in 2019.
8 
Jason Kokrak Hoss for the moss. In the last six Valspar Championships, he has four top 15s, including a co-runner-up in 2019. Recently connected top 10s at Concession, Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass.
Hoss for the moss. In the last six Valspar Championships, he has four top 15s, including a co-runner-up in 2019. Recently connected top 10s at Concession, Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass.
7 
Louis Oosthuizen His tee ball in the playoff on Sunday proves that no one is immune to pressure no matter his strength. Now it’s time for redemption. He’s gone T7-T16-T2 at Copperhead since 2016.
His tee ball in the playoff on Sunday proves that no one is immune to pressure no matter his strength. Now it’s time for redemption. He’s gone T7-T16-T2 at Copperhead since 2016.
6 
Patrick Reed Rested since a T8 at the Masters. Just 137th on TOUR in greens hit but first in putting: birdies-or-better and second in Strokes Gained: Putting. Twice a co-runner-up at Copperhead (2015, 2018).
Rested since a T8 at the Masters. Just 137th on TOUR in greens hit but first in putting: birdies-or-better and second in Strokes Gained: Putting. Twice a co-runner-up at Copperhead (2015, 2018).
5 
Dustin Johnson This is his fourth appearance but just in second of the last 10 editions. He sat one off the 54-hole lead here in 2019 and drifted to finish T6. Inconsistent of late but among the best tee to green.
This is his fourth appearance but just in second of the last 10 editions. He sat one off the 54-hole lead here in 2019 and drifted to finish T6. Inconsistent of late but among the best tee to green.
4 
Justin Rose Returned from a sore lower back for a seventh at the Masters and a T11 (with Henrik Stenson) in NOLA. Three top 10s among seven top 25s at Copperhead, including in his last trip in 2018 (T5).
Returned from a sore lower back for a seventh at the Masters and a T11 (with Henrik Stenson) in NOLA. Three top 10s among seven top 25s at Copperhead, including in his last trip in 2018 (T5).
3 
Justin Thomas A threat everywhere he tees it up for obvious reasons. THE PLAYERS’ title is his only top 10 in seven starts, but he was playing through adversity. T10 (2015) and a T18 (2016) in three Valspars.
A threat everywhere he tees it up for obvious reasons. THE PLAYERS’ title is his only top 10 in seven starts, but he was playing through adversity. T10 (2015) and a T18 (2016) in three Valspars.
2 
Paul Casey Seeking to become the first to win the same event in three consecutive editions since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic (2009-2011). The steady Casey opened 2021 with a win in Dubai.
Seeking to become the first to win the same event in three consecutive editions since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic (2009-2011). The steady Casey opened 2021 with a win in Dubai.
1 
Corey Conners The tee-to-green machine checks all the boxes, emphatically. Led outright after each of the first three rounds in his only prior trip in 2018 (T16). Four top 10s and a T14 in his last six starts.
The tee-to-green machine checks all the boxes, emphatically. Led outright after each of the first three rounds in his only prior trip in 2018 (T16). Four top 10s and a T14 in his last six starts.
Sungjae Im, Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer and Henrik Stenson will be among the notables reviewed in Tuesday’s Fantasy Insider.
As a nascent event from 2000-2006, the Valspar Championship was contested later in the calendar year. It then transitioned into a fixture of the Florida Swing when the FedExCup was introduced in 2007. Like many other tournaments, it was canceled in 2020 due to the pandemic and repositioned this season by more than a month later than when it was accustomed.
Thanks to extended daylight hours at this time of year, the 2021 edition will host 156 golfers for just the third time in its history (2002, 2013). It’s the first of a dozen tournaments extending through the Wyndham Championship in which reservations are made for the maximum. The only individual event staged on one course with as many golfers earlier in the season was the Safeway Open in early September of 2020.
As it concerns the test itself, Copperhead is unchanged. It’s a par 36-35—71 that tips at 7,340 yards. It has the full complement of four par 5s, and they’re challenging, but it has five par 3s, which are just as daunting. However, what’s primarily different this year is that there’s no overseed on the Celebration bermudagrass fairways. Overseed still exists elsewhere, including on the TifEagle bermuda greens. Where it’s transitional won’t be an issue.
Because the greens average just over 5,800 square feet, golfers who are stronger tee to green than they are wielding the flat stick have the inside lane. Two-time defending champion Paul Casey proved this in 2019. He led the field in total driving and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, but he finished a pedestrian 43rd in Strokes Gained: Putting. Sharpen the focus and you’ll find a winner who performed like any in a shootout, which this tournament most definitely is not. Casey ranked T5 in greens hit and second in converting those chances into par breakers. He also paced the field in par-5 scoring. All of that compensated for finishing T55 in par-4 scoring en route to his one-stroke title at 8-under 276.
Leave it to the grizzled Englishman with the million-dollar smile to make it look easy. Copperhead averaged 71.981 in 2019, highest among all par 71s in non-majors that season. It was the third time in four season that it claimed that distinction.
Moderate winds will contribute to the high scores again this week. They’ll start from a southerly direction early in the tournament before pushing in from the north on the weekend. A threat of inclement weather mid-tournament could cool the air, but daytime highs will reach the low- to mid-80s.
The primary rough exceeds three inches and the putting surfaces can race to 12-and-a-half feet on the Stimpmeter.
If you’re new to the tournament, you’ll be learning how unrelenting The Snake Pit can be. It consists of the closing par 4-3-4. In 2019, Nos. 16, 17 and 18 ranked a respective first, eighth and third in terms of difficulty on the course. Collectively, they averaged 0.611 strokes over par for the week. Casey scored 1-over on the trio during both victories. His only birdie on the stretch in 2019 occurred on the par-4 16th in the opening round.
ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE
PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled.
MONDAY: Power Rankings
TUESDAY*: Sleepers; Fantasy Insider
SUNDAY: Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Rookie Watch
* - Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.
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