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Power Rankings: TOUR Championship
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September 19, 2016
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM
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Jason Day and Rory McIlroy are on form entering the TOUR Championship at East Lake. (Chris Condon/PGA TOUR)
Boring golf is rewarded no greater than at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta where the FedExCup champion lays claim to $10 million. But what was once an exercise in tee-to-cup proficiency has been injected with a literal and figurative plot reversal.
East Lake hosts the TOUR Championship for the 16th time, including in all 10 years as the finale of the FedExCup Playoffs. The par 70 has undergone typical upgrades throughout its tenure. The most influential modification preceded the 2008 edition when MiniVerde bermudagrass replaced bentgrass on the greens. That is, until now. And it has nothing to do with putting surfaces or aesthetics.
It was announced seven months ago that the nines would be reversed for the culmination of the 2015-16 season. So, instead of a par 3 to conclude the round – there has never been a hole-in-one in the tournament at what is now the par-3 ninth – the field will do battle with a 600-yard par 5 before posting a score. The objective is simple and clear, to generate excitement and the opportunity for a hero shot. Don’t rule it out. In each of the last three TOUR Championships, there has been exactly one eagle on the hole, each with a putt of some length.
The narrative will focus on the potential shift in momentum at the finish line, but there are visual and physical changes that are just as relevant. New back tees at the 16th and 17th holes – both par 4s – add 58 yards to the test. The yardage on six holes was altered, resulting in an aggregate increase of 78 yards to a tournament-high 7,385, second-longest among all par 70s in non-majors this season. Also included in that subset is the par-4 12th (389 yards) where the target off the tee now includes an encroaching bunker, and the par-3 15th where the water hazard left of the hole is bigger.
All of the updates feed into what’s always worked as the aforementioned strategy at East Lake: split fairways, hit greens and sink putts, the equitable balance of which matters here more than most sites. Still, the emphasis is on the latter, as illustrated by defending champion Jordan Spieth. He led last year’s field in strokes gained: putting, average distance of putts made and scrambling.
However, with rough prepared to stand a fair two-and-a-half inches, keeping the ball in play as often as possible is all but a prerequisite. Reviewing proximities to the hole from 50-125 yards, 125-150 yards and 150-175 yards from lies in both the fairway and rough, East Lake yielded one of the shortest measurements upon approaches from the fairway last year, but it was one of the stingiest from the rough. In fact, distances were doubled or greater based on lie alone. Greens average 6,200 square feet, but they’re expected to run 12-12.5 on the Stimpmeter, which helps explain why they repel incoming shots without any bite. En route to his four-stroke title last year, Spieth ranked seventh in fairways hit, T9 in GIR and fourth in overall proximity.
Mother Nature may trigger the SubAir systems installed at every green this week, but probably stop short of working them overtime. A mild risk for rain exists throughout the tournament. Heat and humidity will overstay its welcome as the first day of autumn aligns with the opening round. Gradually increasing daytime highs into the upper 80s will not be accompanied by any breezy relief, which means that yardages will be pure, so execution must be pinpoint.
POWER RANKINGS: TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP
RANK PLAYER COMMENT 1 
Jason Day Rested and recharged after WD (sore back) at BMW. TOUR’s best putter has three top 10s here with an actual scoring average of 68.875 in last 16 rounds.
2 
Dustin Johnson Resumed top spot in points with BMW victory. Averaged 68.50 in last eight rounds at East Lake, fueling fifth-place finishes in 2013 and 2015.
Resumed top spot in points with BMW victory. Averaged 68.50 in last eight rounds at East Lake, fueling fifth-place finishes in 2013 and 2015.
3 
Paul Casey Striping it off the tee and sits second in GIR and first in scrambling in the Playoffs. Solo seconds in the last two events. T4 (2010) and T5 (2015) at East Lake.
Striping it off the tee and sits second in GIR and first in scrambling in the Playoffs. Solo seconds in the last two events. T4 (2010) and T5 (2015) at East Lake.
4 
Adam Scott Positioned to strike after a T4-4th-T4 run, but no better than T6 here during FedExCup era. Leads Playoffs in GIR and strokes gained: approach-the-green.
Positioned to strike after a T4-4th-T4 run, but no better than T6 here during FedExCup era. Leads Playoffs in GIR and strokes gained: approach-the-green.
5 
Jimmy Walker Reconnected with form in earnest with a solo third at DBC and T13 at BMW. The terrific putter is leading the Playoffs in birdies-or-better percentage.
Reconnected with form in earnest with a solo third at DBC and T13 at BMW. The terrific putter is leading the Playoffs in birdies-or-better percentage.
6 
Jordan Spieth If a defending champion can be lurking, then he qualifies as the seventh seed. Ranks 11th in Playoffs in strokes gained: putting; T6 in adjusted scoring.
If a defending champion can be lurking, then he qualifies as the seventh seed. Ranks 11th in Playoffs in strokes gained: putting; T6 in adjusted scoring.
7 
Rory McIlroy The Deutsche Bank champ slipped to sixth in points with a T42 at the BMW, but pacing the Playoffs in proximity from the rough and ranks T7 in GIR.
The Deutsche Bank champ slipped to sixth in points with a T42 at the BMW, but pacing the Playoffs in proximity from the rough and ranks T7 in GIR.
8 
Patrick Reed Cruising. Other than slipping to second in FedExCup points, he wouldn’t change anything right now. Even a forgettable record at East Lake matters not.
Cruising. Other than slipping to second in FedExCup points, he wouldn’t change anything right now. Even a forgettable record at East Lake matters not.
9 
Matt Kuchar Fresh off comedy routine during Ryder Cup presser. Experience tends not to be relevant at East Lake, but no better than two T10s in six trips is curious.
Fresh off comedy routine during Ryder Cup presser. Experience tends not to be relevant at East Lake, but no better than two T10s in six trips is curious.
10 
Phil Mickelson Twice a winner at East Lake but hasn’t contended since second title in 2009. Hasn’t put four rounds together since Troon but has six top fives this year.
Twice a winner at East Lake but hasn’t contended since second title in 2009. Hasn’t put four rounds together since Troon but has six top fives this year.
11 
Russell Knox Perfected formula with timely wins to punctuate long-term consistency. Ranks eighth in fairways hit, sixth in GIR, 11th in proximity and 20th in scrambling.
Perfected formula with timely wins to punctuate long-term consistency. Ranks eighth in fairways hit, sixth in GIR, 11th in proximity and 20th in scrambling.
12 
Bubba Watson Largely an also-ran since Win-2nd spurt 6 1/2 months ago. Mixed results at East Lake includes a pair of T5s. One of the best on TOUR out of the rough.
Largely an also-ran since Win-2nd spurt 6 1/2 months ago. Mixed results at East Lake includes a pair of T5s. One of the best on TOUR out of the rough.
13 
J.B. Holmes Back in the Ryder Cup after a front-loaded T4 at Crooked Stick. Had been scuffling. Putted well as an East Lake debutant last year, finishing T8.
Back in the Ryder Cup after a front-loaded T4 at Crooked Stick. Had been scuffling. Putted well as an East Lake debutant last year, finishing T8.
14 
Gary Woodland Might surprise some that this is his fourth appearance. His last was in 2014 when he closed 63-67 to place T9. Current form is inspiring. Dark horse.
Might surprise some that this is his fourth appearance. His last was in 2014 when he closed 63-67 to place T9. Current form is inspiring. Dark horse.
15 
Daniel Berger He’s 2-for-2 in climbing inside top 30 with a strong showing at BMW. Additional motivation this time is potential for a Ryder Cup berth. T12 here last year.
He’s 2-for-2 in climbing inside top 30 with a strong showing at BMW. Additional motivation this time is potential for a Ryder Cup berth. T12 here last year.
16 
Brandt Snedeker His title here in 2012 remains his only top 15 in five appearances, which isn’t too surprising given his imbalance toward putting over ball-striking.
His title here in 2012 remains his only top 15 in five appearances, which isn’t too surprising given his imbalance toward putting over ball-striking.
17 
Ryan Moore Third appearance, first since a T3 in 2012. The sharpshooter seemed to run out of gas at Crooked Stick (T64) after seven straight weeks on the road.
Third appearance, first since a T3 in 2012. The sharpshooter seemed to run out of gas at Crooked Stick (T64) after seven straight weeks on the road.
18 
Emiliano Grillo Stumbled in the last two events, at least relatively, but under par in last six final rounds. Ranks 17th in fairways hit and 27th in greens in regulation.
Stumbled in the last two events, at least relatively, but under par in last six final rounds. Ranks 17th in fairways hit and 27th in greens in regulation.
19 
Roberto Castro Here on house money after a third at the BMW. In his only prior trip, eagled the par-5 18th (then No. 9) in the second round in 2013. He tied for ninth.
Here on house money after a third at the BMW. In his only prior trip, eagled the par-5 18th (then No. 9) in the second round in 2013. He tied for ninth.
20 
Hideki Matsuyama In two previous appearances, he lost strokes to the field in putting. It’s not surprising and it remains the primary hurdle to pay off his ball-striking.
In two previous appearances, he lost strokes to the field in putting. It’s not surprising and it remains the primary hurdle to pay off his ball-striking.
21 
William McGirt Salvaged debut with a T20 at Crooked Stick where he co-led the field in GIR and ranked fifth in proximity. Possesses proper skill set to tackle East Lake.
Salvaged debut with a T20 at Crooked Stick where he co-led the field in GIR and ranked fifth in proximity. Possesses proper skill set to tackle East Lake.
22 
Si Woo Kim Extended consistently strong putting since breakthrough win at Sedgefield, so he’s poised to spoil in first look at East Lake. T15 and T20 in last two events.
Extended consistently strong putting since breakthrough win at Sedgefield, so he’s poised to spoil in first look at East Lake. T15 and T20 in last two events.
23 
Kevin Kisner Third on TOUR in strokes gained: putting, but struggled on these surfaces in his debut last year after entering with slightly better form than he does now.
Third on TOUR in strokes gained: putting, but struggled on these surfaces in his debut last year after entering with slightly better form than he does now.
24 
Jason Dufner Not quite meeting expectations of late (sixth in GIR in the Playoffs, but 84th in birdies or better) but back at East Lake for the first time since a T9 in 2013.
Not quite meeting expectations of late (sixth in GIR in the Playoffs, but 84th in birdies or better) but back at East Lake for the first time since a T9 in 2013.
25 
Kevin Na T20 at BMW in first start as a father. Hasn’t finished inside the top half in four previous visits to East Lake where his final-round scoring average is 73.50.
T20 at BMW in first start as a father. Hasn’t finished inside the top half in four previous visits to East Lake where his final-round scoring average is 73.50.
26 
Kevin Chappell First-timer. Dangerous without warning. Three runners-up and a T3 this season; 13th in strokes gained: tee-to-green but 162nd in strokes gained: putting.
First-timer. Dangerous without warning. Three runners-up and a T3 this season; 13th in strokes gained: tee-to-green but 162nd in strokes gained: putting.
27 
Justin Thomas With as many unconnected successes as he’s had, he plays with an abandon that sidesteps a reasonable projection, but not a statistical fit for East Lake.
With as many unconnected successes as he’s had, he plays with an abandon that sidesteps a reasonable projection, but not a statistical fit for East Lake.
28 
Charl Schwartzel Last man in the field via a closing 64 at Crooked Stick, lowest in the BMW finale. Save occasionally impressive rounds, struggles often with putting.
Last man in the field via a closing 64 at Crooked Stick, lowest in the BMW finale. Save occasionally impressive rounds, struggles often with putting.
29 
Jhonattan Vegas He made it. It’s all gravy now after beginning 2015-16 on Past Champion status. Confidence in his irons is a timely benefit in his debut at East Lake.
He made it. It’s all gravy now after beginning 2015-16 on Past Champion status. Confidence in his irons is a timely benefit in his debut at East Lake.
30 
Sean O'Hair Riding the crest of the wave of the T2 at Bethpage, but outside the top 50 in last two events. Solo third in last try at East Lake, but that was in 2009.
Riding the crest of the wave of the T2 at Bethpage, but outside the top 50 in last two events. Solo third in last try at East Lake, but that was in 2009.
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Rested and recharged after WD (sore back) at BMW. TOUR’s best putter has three top 10s here with an actual scoring average of 68.875 in last 16 rounds.