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Power Rankings: U.S. Open
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June 13, 2016
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM
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Rory McIlroy enters the U.S. Open after a win at the Irish Open and T4 at the Memorial Tournament. (Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
The United States Open at Oakmont Country Club. It’s just another golf tournament at just another golf course. Yeah, right.
In an ultimate one-and-done success story, Oakmont is the only course that Henry Clay (H.C.) Fownes ever designed. Yet, no American test is feared and respected as much, this despite the absence of water and trees in play. As it once was, so it is again, not that the National Historic Landmark (designated as such in 1987) east of Pittsburgh requires additional hazards to test the best players in the world and, as the saying goes, reveal the game’s best talent.
There are blind tee shots into narrow, often cantered fairways that are bordered with the epitome of rough. They will consume wayward drives. The scattering of 210 bunkers is highlighted by the Church Pews that contribute to the boundary between the third and fourth holes. And while that omnipresent danger demands the attention of every qualifier in the 156-man field, managing one’s game on approach and on the greens just might be the greatest challenge for each, not just this week or this season, but during their entire careers. Relatively large targets are defended with scores of undulations, bunkers, run-off areas and a Stimpmeter reading expected to touch 14 in favorable conditions.
This is the 116th edition of the national championship. Oakmont is hosting for a record ninth time. Seventeen of the 63 who made the cut in its last turn as host in 2007 are scheduled to compete this week, including champion Ángel Cabrera and co-runner-up, 2003 U.S. Open champ and regional native Jim Furyk. Four others who finished inside the top 10 are also here, three of whom are major champions (David Toms, Bubba Watson, Justin Rose).
The course is a stock par 70 and tips at just 7,254 yards, three yards shorter than nine years ago. It wears a badge as a long track because five of the par 4s exceed 475 yards and two of the par 3s can stretch to beyond 230 yards, including the eighth hole, which can play 288 yards. Neither par 5 is a cakewalk, either. Both list at over 600 yards; the 12th hole maxes at 667 yards.
Taking into account scoring averages of all courses on the PGA TOUR since data was first maintained in earnest in 1983, the 2007 U.S. Open ranks second-highest in relation to par at 5.705 strokes over par. (Only the 1999 Open Championship at Carnoustie was harder.) The 1983 U.S. Open at Oakmont (as a par 71 at 6,972 yards) is third-highest at 5.134 strokes over par. When Cabrera authored a one-stroke victory at 5-over 285 in 2007, the par-4 14th was the easiest hole at 0.050 strokes over par.
So, while all facets of one’s game are tested, one’s temperament to accept, embrace and even be entertained by the challenge figures to be the X-factor. Statistically, hitting greens in regulation and avoiding three putts are premiums, but those prerequisites will be given a great assist with tee balls that can be struck cleanly. After all, this is the United States Open at Oakmont Country Club, where par is a fantastic score.
An active weather pattern midweek will likely impact play during the opening round, but the forecast is downright beautiful for the weekend. Daytime highs in the 80s will be accompanied by light winds, relatively low humidity and the fastest greens of the year.
POWER RANKINGS: U.S. OPEN
RANK PLAYER COMMENT 1 
Jason Day Battling an illness, but it didn’t hold him back at Match Play. Latest win at TPC Sawgrass a month ago. Combination of confident execution off tee and short game stands alone.
2 
Rory McIlroy Chased win in Ireland with T4 at Memorial where he led the field in both strokes gained: off-the-tee and birdies-or-better percentage. Possesses entire skill set to tame Oakmont.
Chased win in Ireland with T4 at Memorial where he led the field in both strokes gained: off-the-tee and birdies-or-better percentage. Possesses entire skill set to tame Oakmont.
3 
Patrick Reed Playing well and poised for his major breakthrough. Leads the PGA TOUR in strokes gained: around-the-green and ranks second in scrambling. Fourth in bogey avoidance.
Playing well and poised for his major breakthrough. Leads the PGA TOUR in strokes gained: around-the-green and ranks second in scrambling. Fourth in bogey avoidance.
4 
Dustin Johnson Clearing the last hurdle is the hardest part. He just needs to believe that he’s equipped. Solo fifth at St. Jude; five top fives in last seven starts. T4-T2 in last two U.S. Opens.
Clearing the last hurdle is the hardest part. He just needs to believe that he’s equipped. Solo fifth at St. Jude; five top fives in last seven starts. T4-T2 in last two U.S. Opens.
5 
Henrik Stenson If his game off the tee is on point, he’ll factor. Second in total driving (ninth in accuracy) and seventh in greens hit. Bevy of top fives populate long-arcing recent past.
If his game off the tee is on point, he’ll factor. Second in total driving (ninth in accuracy) and seventh in greens hit. Bevy of top fives populate long-arcing recent past.
6 
Adam Scott Trio of top 20s since T2-Win-Win spurt into Florida Swing, but no top 10s. Tops on TOUR in strokes gained: tee-to-green; T6 in proximity. Top 10s in last tow U.S. Opens.
Trio of top 20s since T2-Win-Win spurt into Florida Swing, but no top 10s. Tops on TOUR in strokes gained: tee-to-green; T6 in proximity. Top 10s in last tow U.S. Opens.
7 
Matt Kuchar Peaking. After a pair of T9s to begin the spring, he enters having gone T3-3rd-T6-T4. Statistically solid across the board. Top 30s in last six U.S. Opens; four were top 15s.
Peaking. After a pair of T9s to begin the spring, he enters having gone T3-3rd-T6-T4. Statistically solid across the board. Top 30s in last six U.S. Opens; four were top 15s.
8 
Jordan Spieth The defending champion gets a master class in course management and composure as his greenside touch might not matter as much with outrageously gnarly rough.
The defending champion gets a master class in course management and composure as his greenside touch might not matter as much with outrageously gnarly rough.
9 
Justin Rose Rested since THE PLAYERS (T19) due to a sore back. Currently second in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Typically solid 2016 includes seven top 20s. T10 here in 2007.
Rested since THE PLAYERS (T19) due to a sore back. Currently second in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Typically solid 2016 includes seven top 20s. T10 here in 2007.
10 
Brooks Koepka P2-T2 in his last two starts. Ranked T3 in proximity at TPC Southwind and fifth in scrambling. T4 at 2014 U.S. Open at Pinehurst; T18 at Chambers Bay last year.
P2-T2 in his last two starts. Ranked T3 in proximity at TPC Southwind and fifth in scrambling. T4 at 2014 U.S. Open at Pinehurst; T18 at Chambers Bay last year.
11 
Hideki Matsuyama Rested since uncharacteristically poor showing at Muirfield Village (MC). Consistently strong ball-striking helps explain 3-for-3 slate with two top 20s in U.S. Opens.
Rested since uncharacteristically poor showing at Muirfield Village (MC). Consistently strong ball-striking helps explain 3-for-3 slate with two top 20s in U.S. Opens.
12 
Sergio Garcia Could this finally be the one? Couldn’t ask for a better tune-up than a win in his previous start (AT&T Byron Nelson). Sits 23rd in total driving; first in greens in regulation.
Could this finally be the one? Couldn’t ask for a better tune-up than a win in his previous start (AT&T Byron Nelson). Sits 23rd in total driving; first in greens in regulation.
13 
Phil Mickelson Third attempt at career grand slam. Warmed up with a predictable T2 at St. Jude, leading the field in strokes gained: putting. Last U.S. Open MC was at Oakmont in 2007.
Third attempt at career grand slam. Warmed up with a predictable T2 at St. Jude, leading the field in strokes gained: putting. Last U.S. Open MC was at Oakmont in 2007.
14 
Danny Willett Prepped and prepared for these greens with victory at the Masters. Finished third at Wentworth in his last start. Strengths are on approach, around and on greens.
Prepped and prepared for these greens with victory at the Masters. Finished third at Wentworth in his last start. Strengths are on approach, around and on greens.
15 
Brandt Snedeker One of the most consistent in this championship. Four top 10s and another three top 25s, including a T23 at Oakmont in 2007. T17 in his last start at Colonial.
One of the most consistent in this championship. Four top 10s and another three top 25s, including a T23 at Oakmont in 2007. T17 in his last start at Colonial.
16 
Lee Westwood Now 43, the once-consistent threat in every major is surging again. Four straight top 15s sparked by a T2 at Masters. Tee-to-green game helps sets him apart.
Now 43, the once-consistent threat in every major is surging again. Four straight top 15s sparked by a T2 at Masters. Tee-to-green game helps sets him apart.
17 
Charl Schwartzel Improved precision off tee will allow balanced remainder of his bag to shine. T11 at Memorial in last start; third-best finish of 2016. Four top 20s in U.S. Opens since 2010.
Improved precision off tee will allow balanced remainder of his bag to shine. T11 at Memorial in last start; third-best finish of 2016. Four top 20s in U.S. Opens since 2010.
18 
Louis Oosthuizen Quiet since a murmurless T15 at the Masters, but he’s a main-stage performer. World-class ball-striker in his prime at 33 years of age.
Quiet since a murmurless T15 at the Masters, but he’s a main-stage performer. World-class ball-striker in his prime at 33 years of age.
19 
Daniel Berger Fresh off his breakthrough victory and now putting on Poa annua at Oakmont, a letdown is expected for the Florida native, but there’s no denying his form since March.
Fresh off his breakthrough victory and now putting on Poa annua at Oakmont, a letdown is expected for the Florida native, but there’s no denying his form since March.
20 
Branden Grace Out for redemption after close call at Chambers Bay (T4). Two wins in last nine starts worldwide and simply unafraid. Makeup arguably best for this major.
Out for redemption after close call at Chambers Bay (T4). Two wins in last nine starts worldwide and simply unafraid. Makeup arguably best for this major.
ROB BOLTON'S WRITING SCHEDULE
PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Columnist Rob Bolton will be filing his usual staples leading up to this week's event. Look for the following features later this week:
MONDAY: Power Rankings
TUESDAY*: Fantasy Insider, Comfort Zone, Sleepers
WEDNESDAY: One-and-Done
THURSDAY: Most-picked players* = Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM's Expert Picks, which also publishes on Tuesdays.
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Battling an illness, but it didn’t hold him back at Match Play. Latest win at TPC Sawgrass a month ago. Combination of confident execution off tee and short game stands alone.