Scenarios: What the final 30 need to win

September 16, 2013

Each of the 30 players in the field at this week's TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola has a chance to win the FedExCup. There are thousands of possibilities that would allow each player to win, especially when ties are taken into account. However, for simplicity some likely scenarios are shown below.

Any of the top five players will win the FedExCup with a win at the TOUR Championship. The remaining 25 players can still win, but must get help from players at the top of the standings.

The scenarios below are not all-inclusive but do give an indication of some possibilities for each player to win the FedExCup.

Asterisks denote a finish combination that results in a tie in the final FedExCup points standings, in which case the winner will be decided in a sudden-death playoff immediately following completion of THE TOUR Championship.

Scenarios to win the FedExCup
No. 1 Tiger Woods
• If he wins the TOUR Championship he wins the Cup
• Has a reasonable chance of winning with a top-5 finish
• Can finish as low as 29th and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 2 Henrik Stenson
• If he wins the TOUR Championship he wins the Cup
• Has a reasonable chance of winning with a top-3 finish
• Can finish as low as a 2-way tie for 6th and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 3 Adam Scott
• If he wins the TOUR Championship, he wins the Cup
• Has a reasonable chance of winning with a 2nd-place finish
• Can finish as low as T-4th and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 4 Zach Johnson
• If he wins the TOUR Championship, he wins the Cup
• Has a reasonable chance of winning with a 2nd-place finish
• Can finish as low as T-3rd and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 5 Matt Kuchar
• If he wins the TOUR Championship, he wins the Cup
• Can finish as low as a two-way tie for 2nd and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 6 Steve Stricker
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes T-2 or worse
• Can finish 2nd and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 7 Graham DeLaet
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 8 Phil Mickelson
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes 3rd* or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes T-2* or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes 2nd* or worse
No. 9 Justin Rose
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes in a three-way tie for 3rd or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes 3rd or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes T-2 or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes 2nd* or worse
No. 10 Brandt Snedeker
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes 5th or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes in a three-way tie for 3rd or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes T-2 or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes 2nd* or worse
No. 11 Jim Furyk
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes T-6 or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes T-4 or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 12 Nick Watney
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes in a three-way tie for 6th or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes T-4 or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 13 Jordan Spieth
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes T-7 or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes T-4 or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 14 Jason Day
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes T-8 or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes T-4 or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 15 Hunter Mahan
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes 9th* or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes T-4* or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 16 Keegan Bradley
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes in a three-way tie for 9th or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes in a three-way tie for 4th or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes 3rd or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 17 Gary Woodland
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes in a three-way tie for 10th or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes in a three-way tie for 4th or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes in a three-way tie for 3rd or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes 3rd or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 18 Bill Haas
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes T-11 or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes 5th or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes in a three-way tie for 3rd or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes 3rd or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
No. 19 Kevin Streelman
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes T-12 or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes 5th or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes in a three-way tie for 3rd or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes 3rd or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 6 (Steve Stricker) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 20 Jason Dufner
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes in a three-way tie for 12th or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes 5th or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes in a three-way tie for 3rd or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes 3rd or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 6 (Steve Stricker) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 21 Webb Simpson
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes 13th* or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes 5th* or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes in a three-way tie for 3rd or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes 3rd* or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 6 (Steve Stricker) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 22 Billy Horschel
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes in a three-way tie for 13th or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes T-5 or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes in a three-way tie for 3rd or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 6 (Steve Stricker) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 23 Charl Schwartzel
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes 15th* or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes T-5 or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes in a three-way tie for 3rd or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 6 (Steve Stricker) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 24 Roberto Castro
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes 17th* or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes in a three-way tie for 5th or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes in a three-way tie for 3rd or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 6 (Steve Stricker) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 25 Sergio Garcia
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes 19th* or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes in a three-way tie for 5th or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes 4th or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 6 (Steve Stricker) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 26 Boo Weekley
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes 21st* or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes 6th* or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes 4th* or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 6 (Steve Stricker) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 27 Brendon de Jonge
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes 23rd* or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes T-6 or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes T-4 or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 6 (Steve Stricker) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 28 Luke Donald
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes 25th* or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes T-6 or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes T-4 or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 6 (Steve Stricker) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 29 D.A. Points
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes 27th* or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes in a three-way tie for 6th or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes T-4 or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 6 (Steve Stricker) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 30 Dustin Johnson
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes 29th* or worse
• No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes in a three-way tie for 6th or worse
• No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes T-4 or worse
• No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes T-3 or worse
• No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
• No. 6 (Steve Stricker) finishes T-2 or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup

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