Seven intriguing FedExCup probabilities heading into East Lake

Through the first four years of the TOUR Championship’s FedExCup Starting Strokes format, we have seen a balanced mix of front-runners and chasers take home the top prize.

Twice, in 2020 and 2021, the top-seeded player entering the week went on to win (Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay). The other two years the Cup was won by Rory McIlroy, from five shots back in 2019 and six back last August.

If last week’s Sunday shootout at Olympia Fields is a harbinger, the FedExCup title (and $18 million prize that comes with it) are far from being decided. Our team at Twenty First Group ran 20,000 simulations of what might happen this week in Atlanta in the culmination of the 2022-23 PGA TOUR season to get a more precise focus on what to expect at East Lake. Every player in the field has a mathematical chance at winning the FedExCup – we picked a few of the most intriguing storylines to keep an eye on.

Scottie Scheffler

FedExCup Starting Strokes: -10

FedExCup Win Probability: 38.4%

One of the more remarkable single-season ball-striking performances in recent golf history will wrap up this weekend in Atlanta. Scottie Scheffler has gained an absurd 2.74 strokes per round from tee-to-green on the PGA TOUR in 2022-23, the second-best season average for any player since tracking began in 2004. Only Tiger Woods, who averaged 2.98 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round in 2006, has put together a better average.

There’s another ball-striking benchmark that Scheffler can target this week, too. Scottie has a chance – albeit a small one – to finish the season with a Greens in Regulation average of 75% or better. Woods is the last player to do it, back in his unbelievable 2000 campaign. Scheffler would have to break a few records to get there: he needs to hit at least 62 greens this week, which would be both a career-high on the PGA TOUR and the most ever hit by a player in a TOUR Championship at East Lake.

Viktor Hovland

FedExCup Starting Strokes: -8

FedExCup Win Probability: 10.3%

Viktor Hovland put together a Sunday back nine last week not seen on the PGA TOUR in nearly a decade. Hovland’s 28 was the first time a player shot a final round back nine score of 28 or lower to win since Kevin Streelman did it at the 2014 Travelers Championship. Streelman rattled off birdies on each of his last seven holes that Sunday – Hovland spread his seven birdies out over the entire back side.

Hovland had more than 3.5 Strokes Gained: Approach on his back nine Sunday. The field’s average approach shot proximity on those holes in the final round was 32 feet, 3 inches. Hovland’s was less than half that number (16’0”). The field averaged 1.8 approach shots to 15 feet or closer in that stretch – Viktor hit an absurd seven approaches 15 feet or better. This will be Hovland’s fourth career start at East Lake. His best finish was a tie for fifth place two years ago.

Rory McIlroy

FedExCup Starting Strokes: -7

FedExCup Win Probability: 18.3%

Coming off nine straight top-ten finishes, Rory McIlroy heads to a place he’s loved throughout his career with a full head of steam. McIlroy has recorded 28 consecutive rounds of par or better, the longest active streak currently on the PGA TOUR, and the third-longest such streak by any player this season.

McIlroy has putted brilliantly at East Lake over the years, especially recently. Since 2019, McIlroy is gaining 0.67 strokes on the greens at East Lake per round, fourth-most among those with eight or more rounds in that span. He’s rolling in 50% of his putts from 10 to 15 feet in that span, tied for the best rate of any player.

Jon Rahm

FedExCup Starting Strokes: -6

FedExCup Win Probability: 12.4%

Starting the week four shots behind Scheffler, Jon Rahm would love to get off to a hot start Thursday in Atlanta. That’s something he’s very accustomed to doing here: among all players with four or more TOUR Championship starts at East Lake, Rahm’s first-round scoring average of 66.7 is second-best of all time.

Rahm had his best round of the week at Olympia Fields on Sunday, when he gained more than three strokes on the greens to card a closing 67. He ranks fourth in birdies-or-better per round at East Lake since making his debut back in 2017.

Lucas Glover

FedExCup Starting Strokes: -5

FedExCup Win Probability: 0.6%

Much has been made – and rightfully so – of Lucas Glover’s surge in performance since changing putters this summer. Before the switch, Glover was averaging -0.78 Strokes Gained: Putting per round, tied for 187th among qualified PGA TOUR players. Since, he’s averaging +0.42 Strokes Gained: Putting per round, a flip that adds up to 4.8 strokes per 72 holes on the greens alone.

Let’s not disrespect what Lucas has done with his other 13 clubs, however. Glover has always been a very good ball striker by TOUR standards, but what he’s enjoyed during this early-40’s career renaissance has been terrific, even for him. Glover is tied for the most Strokes Gained: Approach per round in that span and third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

In that span, Glover has a scoring average of 67.29. Among the 185 players with a dozen or more PGA TOUR rounds in that span, only McIlroy is better in that stretch (66.95).

Max Homa

FedExCup Starting Strokes: -4

FedExCup Win Probability: 2.1%

Fresh off qualifying for his first-ever United States Ryder Cup team, Homa will try to build on his T-5 finish last year in his first career start at the TOUR Championship. The numbers suggest Max loved the greens at East Lake last year, as he ranked fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Putting is where Homa has enjoyed his largest increase in performance over the last two seasons. In 2021, Homa actually lost strokes to the field on the greens, ranking 118th in that metric. He’s become one of the most lethal putters on the PGA TOUR in just two years, sitting fifth in Strokes Gained: Putting per round this year when the season finale kicks off Thursday.

Xander Schauffele

FedExCup Starting Strokes: -3

FedExCup Win Probability: 2.4%

He has a seven-shot hill to climb before the first shot is even hit, but Xander Schauffele still has a shot at winning his first FedExCup title this weekend. His past prowess at East Lake is a big reason why: since 2017, Schauffele is a combined 66-under-par in this championship, eleven shots better than anyone else in that span. Schauffele, Rahm and Tony Finau now have the longest active streak of consecutive Tour Championship appearances, with seven apiece.

Schauffele has never recorded a score over par in 24 career TOUR Championship rounds at East Lake. The second-most rounds by a player to have never shot over par here? Four.