One big question facing top contenders at Augusta National

Rarely does the golf world head to Augusta National with so many top contenders in such strong form.

This week’s Masters Tournament is one of the more anticipated editions in some time, largely because of the quality of play fans have enjoyed recently by some of the game’s top competitors. The current top three in the Official World Golf Ranking have already combined to win six times this year. Meanwhile, prolific TOUR winners like Sam Burns and Max Homa look poised to take the next steps in their careers by contending on one of the sport’s biggest stages.

As the season’s first major gets set to begin, what is the biggest question facing the top contenders? Let’s look at a sampling of some of the most popular names in the field.

Scottie Scheffler: The jacket’s weight

Since beginning his ascent to the top of the sport, Scottie Scheffler has seamlessly acclimated to the limelight. He successfully defended his first PGA TOUR title earlier this season at the WM Phoenix Open – then nearly did it again at both the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. In between, he led the field at TPC Sawgrass in both driving distance and greens in regulation, a first-ever by a PLAYERS champion. If anything, the brightest lights have brought out Scheffler’s best golf: after all, his first start as the world’s number one player was here last year, when he went on to win.

But only three players have successfully defended at Augusta National: Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods. When each of those men went back-to-back, they were already multiple major champions – not a one-time major winner like Scheffler currently is. While Scheffler hasn’t backed down as a defending champion so far in 2023, major championships carry a different level of scrutiny, perhaps nowhere more so than in Augusta.

Six of the last eight Masters winners ranked inside the top five that week in Strokes Gained: Approach, including Scheffler last year. Since his win at last year’s WM Phoenix Open, Scheffler leads the PGA TOUR in that very statistic.

Jon Rahm: Approach play struggles

Empirically speaking, no player has had a more complete game so far this PGA TOUR season than Jon Rahm. Rahm is the only player to rank inside the top 30 in each of the four Strokes Gained metrics – Off-the-Tee, Approach the Green, Around the Green and Putting. There are only three players even ranked in the top 30 in three of those statistics. It’s no wonder then that Rahm leads the TOUR in Strokes Gained: Total (+2.50), scoring average (68.90) and birdie average (5.21).

Rahm has been excellent with his iron play so far in 2023: for the first time in his PGA TOUR career, the Spaniard is averaging more than a full stroke gained per round with his approach play. So why is that facet of his game in question heading to Augusta National? Past performances here indicate it’s the only thing that has prevented him from winning a Green Jacket.

Since his debut in 2017, Rahm leads all players in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee per round at Augusta. He’s gained more than three-tenths of a stroke per round on shots around the green, and his Strokes Gained: Putting average is better in his Masters career (+0.46 per round) than his PGA TOUR average (+0.32). But in 24 career rounds at Augusta National, he’s averaged -0.06 Strokes Gained: Approach per round, a surprising number for one of the world’s best ball strikers.

If Rahm hits his irons this week like he did the first two months of 2023, he will be extremely tough to beat this week.

Rory McIlroy: Putting and the past

For nearly a decade, Rory McIlroy has arrived at Augusta National needing just this final leg to complete the career Grand Slam. The burden of living history is something reserved for only the greatest in sports; few times do athletes enter a competitive sphere where their chief competitions are the ghosts of greatness past. Each of the five men to complete the Grand Slam got the final piece in three tries or less. This will be attempt number nine for Rory.

But if you like a more analytical answer to the question, start with the club that has been criticized most throughout McIlroy’s stellar career – the shortest one in the bag. After ascending into the top 20 on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting per round a season ago, McIlroy is 175th in that statistic this year. Rory ranked 6th in putting from 10 to 15 feet in 2021-22 – he’s a paltry 169th from that range currently.

Those numbers, though, don’t include the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, where McIlroy switched to a different putter. While the stats that week aren’t official, consider this: on the back nine of his quarterfinal match against Xander Schauffele, McIlroy made five putts of seven feet or longer.

Jordan Spieth: Rediscovering magic on the greens

Simply put, Jordan Spieth has been incredible when he gets to Augusta National. Among all players in tournament history with 20 or more rounds, only Ben Hogan (+2.52) has averaged more Strokes Gained: Total per round than Spieth has (+2.26). Since 2015, Spieth is ranked second among all qualified players in Strokes Gained: Approach per round at Augusta. His improved iron play this season is a harbinger of good things this week, too. This is the fifth time Spieth has arrived at the Masters averaging at least 0.4 Strokes Gained: Approach per round that PGA TOUR season. His previous finishes when that’s the case: 1st, T-11th, 3rd and T-3rd.

One of those top-three finishes – 2021 – is emblematic of the biggest question facing Spieth entering the week. That year, Spieth gained more than 13 strokes on the field tee-to-green, most of any player in the field. On the greens, though? He ranked 52nd of the 55 players to make the cut. In his Masters victory in 2015, Spieth gained more than two strokes per round putting. He’s 77th on TOUR in that statistic so far in 2023, far from his halcyon form of years past.

Patrick Cantlay: Show and prove

The consistent statistical brilliance of Patrick Cantlay has not yet translated to big-time major championship success. In 23 career major starts, Cantlay has finished in the top ten only three times – a startling figure for a player who has made a comfy home in the top ten of the Official Golf World Rankings. The counter to that is that Cantlay hasn’t been terrible in the biggest events – while yes, he only has three top-ten finishes, he’s missed the cut just four times, as well.

Over the last three PGA TOUR seasons, Cantlay is tied with Scheffler for most wins, with six apiece. He’s won a FedExCup, played for U.S. national teams and become a fixture on leaderboards. He gains strokes on the field in every key category and is enjoying his best season with the driver as a pro (2nd in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee). All the tools and signs are there. Will this be his breakthrough week?