Horses for Courses: Find space for Tony Finau at Memorial Park in Houston

After four weeks in Florida, the PGA TOUR heads to Texas for the first of four events this spring. Houston and its proud golfing history will be in the leadoff spot, followed by the historic Texas Valero Open in San Antonio event next week and two more to come in May.

Memorial Park Golf Course, host of the Texas Children’s Houston Open, was designed by John Bredemus in the early 1930s, and redesigned by Tom Doak in 2019 for a return to the PGA TOUR schedule. The previous three events all took place in November.

The par-70 public track will play 7,435 yards, the longest of the four editions. Remember, any events played this century before 2020 were not held at Memorial Park. Don’t cross the streams!

Tony Finau (+2200 at BetMGM) is the only former champion in the field this week. The big hitter’s affinity for large, municipal courses is well documented from his success here (win, T24 in three visits) and at Torrey Pines (South) for the Farmers Insurance Open annually. Setting the tournament scoring record (16-under) and tying the course record (62) in Round 2, the five-time TOUR winner should be excited for his defense. Cashing T24 on debut in November of 2020, he has posted eight rounds in the red in 10 career loops.

Ball-Striking

Players listed are in the field this week; 2023 season stats.

Generous landing areas off the tees, combined with minimal rough framing the fairways, should favor the power players this week. Memorial Park provides an average fairway width of 30 to 40 yards. New this season, the primary rough will barely measure over an inch. With only 21 bunkers and water penalty areas on just four holes, inaccuracy will not be as penal as the three previous editions nor the four previous weeks in Florida. Of course, the breeze will blow, as it always does in the Lone Star State, but the generous landing areas in the fairways and 7,000 square foot (on average) Poa trivialis overseeded greens should favor the longest and most accurate.

Scottie Scheffler (+275) is approaching Tiger Woods-esque pre-tournament numbers at BetMGM. A winner on TOUR the last two times he’s teed it up, the former Texas Longhorn returns to Houston to a track where he’s hit the top 10 in his last two visits. Posting the first 62 since the 2019 redesign, the Dallas resident held his first 54-hole lead here in the fall of 2021 before finishing T2. Returning for the 2022 event, he added a T9. Never missing the cut in the three previous editions, I can’t find a reason to fade him this week based on course history. Posting red figures seven times in 12 rounds, a ball-striking challenge is suited to his game.

Par-5 Scoring Average

Ranking in the top 11 most difficult courses in scoring average over the first three editions, Memorial Park appears to be painting a calmer picture for 2024. The par-70 set-up has five par 3s and three par 5s. Measuring 585, 625 and 576 yards, the extra par 5 would suggest another scoring chance. But the shortest one of the bunch, the 16th, ranks as one of the most difficult par-5 holes on TOUR annually. The players who can handle the wind and the length will have a chance to gain ground on the field. The trio ranked T1 most difficult after the 2020 edition, second most difficult the following year, and T10 in 2022.

Jason Day (+2500) has not missed the weekend in three visits to the municipal course, located just eight miles from downtown. Playing in the final group in 2020, he cashed T7. The three-time winner in Texas posted four rounds in the 60s in the 2022 edition to cash T16. In 12 loops, he has found red numbers eight times.

Par-3 Scoring Average

Given a choice of par 3, par 4 or par 5 holes for scoring, the numbers tell us the five par 3s, over the three-year average, provide the most favorable scoring chances. Ranking in mid-pack over the first two editions, three of the five holes measure 182 yards or less. The other two, one on each nine, stretch to 216 yards and 237 yards and will need more attention.

Posting seven rounds of eight at par or better, Joel Dahmen (+6600) has cashed inside the top 10 in both of his visits. Closing with 65 in the 2021 edition, he returned the following season and added three more rounds in the 60s to take home a share of ninth place.

Oddsmaker’s Extras

Keith Mitchell (+2800) has needed three events to figure out Memorial Park, but his last visit in 2022 suggests he has. Posting four rounds of 70 or better, he opened with 66 and closed with 68 to share ninth.

Mackenzie Hughes (+5000) has never finished outside the top 30 in three previous visits. Posting 68-63 on the weekend of the first tournament in 2020, the Canadian vaulted into the top 10 (T7), his best result. The next two seasons, he posted four of eight rounds in the 60s (T29, T16), and his worst score was just 71.

Aaron Rai (+5000) will look to carry his streak of T19 or better finishes for a third consecutive event in Space City. Opening with 71 on his first loop, the Englishman produced seven consecutive rounds of par or better, including 64 in Round 2 of 2022 (T7).

Stephan Jaeger (+5000) signed for T35 in 2021. The German returned with four rounds at par or better in the 2022 edition and cashed T9. Red numbers take up four of the eight total rounds on two scorecards.

Alex Smalley (+15000) played his final 54 holes in nine-under to share fourth in 2022 after posting three rounds in the 60s to share 15th in 2021. Now, about his current form…

Sponsor’s exemption Adam Long (+40000) posted T11 twice in the first two editions before missing the weekend in 2022. Everyone needs a longshot!

Top 10 from 2022 not mentioned above:

• Solo second: Tyson Alexander
• Solo third: Ben Taylor
• T4: Alex Noren
• T9: Joseph Bramlett
• T9: Gary Woodland

Odds courtesy of BETMGM.

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