Horses for Courses: Big talent performs for big crowds at WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale opened its doors in 1987 and has since evolved into the highest-attended event on the PGA TOUR. The top 65 and ties surviving the 36-hole cut from the field of 132 players will witness over 700,000 people during the tournament.

Tom Weiskopf returned to update his original design for the 2015 edition. The familiarity of the par-3 16th coliseum and the drivable par-4 17th will highlight a grandstand finish.

Navigating the desert, the noise and the weather are all required this week for a piece of the $8.8 million purse. The last man standing takes home $1.58 million plus 500 FedExCup points.

Horses for Courses

The meteoric rise of Scottie Scheffler (+500) launched from this desert oasis on his third visit in 2022. Closing the deal for the first time on TOUR in a playoff, TPC Scottsdale became his spiritual home. Defending the title in 2023 reinforced his comfort in the desert. Posting 19-under, he equaled the post-2014 renovation tournament scoring record, winning by two and running five shots clear of third. Entering the 2024 edition, he will look to join Steve Stricker (John Deere Classic, 2009-11) as the most recent player to enter the three-peat club. The Texan will look to run his streak of top-10 paydays to four straight and build on his 51-under aggregate.

Ball-Striking

Players listed are in the field this week; 2023 season stats.

Framed by the Sonoran Desert, 67 bunkers, and six holes with water in play, navigating the golf ball is the key to scoring this week. Aggressive lines off the tee are rewarded with acute angles to attack flags and stack up scoring chances. Playing out of the desert waste areas and two inches of rough will add caution to the mix. Big misses and bad angles will require conservative approaches. Last February, Scheffler became the first winner in seven years to rank outside the top six in this category and still picked up the trophy. Not everyone hits recovery shots like this man!

The first four times Hideki Matsuyama (+5000) teed it up at TPC Scottsdale he shared fourth, tied for second, and won in back-to-back seasons. A left wrist injury sustained in the first round of 2018 halted his quest for a three-peat. Returning in 2019, he has now rattled off five more visits to the weekend, including T8 in 2022, his fifth top-10 from nine weekends.

Par-Breakers

The fun in the stands translates to fun on the course. The average winning score since 2015 is pushing 17-under. The highest winning totals (15-under and 14-under) were posted in the two editions post-renovation. The 10th edition should bring a similar winning total. None of the par-5 holes stretch over 560 yards. The 17th, a par-4 playing only 332 yards, will add another chance for eagles and two-putt birdies. All nine winners have ranked in the top six in this category, with seven ranking T3 or better.

Joining Scheffler and Matsuyama in the top four in all-time money won at TPC Scottsdale is the 2019 champion Rickie Fowler (+5500). Making his 16th appearance on the property, the 54-hole record-setter (post renovation) on 20-under and 2016 playoff runner-up, has cashed in the top 10 in five of his last eight trips, including T10 in 2023.

SG: Putting

For the fourth consecutive week, Poa annua greens are on the menu. After playing the smallest greens on TOUR at Pebble Beach, this week TPC Scottsdale provides putting surfaces almost double in size. Players not finding the short grass or proper angle off the tee should still have a chance to catch a piece on approach. Proper speed on the greens will return this week as the Stimpmeter pushes slightly past 12 feet. Lagging putts, holing Par-Breakers, and scrambling will keep players ticking up the leaderboard.

It's only a matter of time before Justin Thomas (+1000) conquers the Stadium Course and finds the winner’s circle at TPC Scottsdale. Of the six winners over the last nine years, five have gone on to win a major championship. Thomas has already done the hard part twice at the PGA Championship. Making his debut with T17 in the 2015 edition, he’s currently on a streak of T13 or better over the last five visits. Sharing third twice and cashing fourth last year, 27 of his 32 rounds have been par or better. Cashing in seven of nine visits, he’s never taken home a check worse than T17.

Jordan Spieth (+1600) has produced his best two results in the last three seasons. The Texan has also posted the lowest round of the event in each of those two appearances. The 2021 tournament saw him post 61, matching the post-renovation course record set by Wyndham Clark (+2800) in 2020. The three-time major winner cashed T4, his best result to date. Last year, he produced 63 in Round 2, the best of the week, before cashing T6, his fourth top-10 payday from five weekends.

Sub-Par Rounds

In the last three seasons, the cut has been Even, 2-under and 3-under in 2021. There have been just five total rounds over par in the last three seasons from players cashing T20 or better. Posting 9-under for the week didn’t break the top 35 in 2021, the top 22 in 2022, and the top 13 last year. Contending this week will almost need all four rounds in the 60s.

Oddsmaker’s Extras

• Sam Burns (+1600): Posted 64-68 to open in 2021 to finish T22. Posted 64-68 to close in 2023 for T6. Now, about that MC in the middle.
• Sungjae Im (+2800): Never missing the weekend from four tries, the Korean cashed T6 in 2023 after T7 on debut in 2019.
• Nick Taylor (+10000): The Canadian tried to run down Scheffler last year in the A Flight but fell two strokes short. His 17-under total would have won or forced a playoff in four of the seven previous years.
• Billy Horschel (+10000): Cashing in the top-10 in half of his last four attempts, the former Florida Gator doesn’t mind the desert. He’s never missed the cut in nine starts since 2015.
• Sam Ryder (+15000): Look up. There’s a reason he’s never missed the weekend from five starts. The next step is building off T20 and T23 from the last two seasons. Hey, everyone needs a long shot!

-Odds courtesy of BETMGM.COM-

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