Horses for Courses: Former champ and Pebble Beach stalwart Jordan Spieth angling for more success

Opened in 1919, Pebble Beach Golf Links has manifested through plenty of changes, but the inclusion of amateurs remains. Since 1947, the iconic Monterey Peninsula and Carmel Bay have been the gathering place for professionals and amateurs for the annual PGA TOUR stop.

The 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am takes on a different shape. With only 80 players in this exclusive field, the rotation of three courses has reduced to Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course.

The pros and their amateur partners will compete for 36 holes, one loop on each track, to determine the Pro-Am winner. The professionals return for Rounds 3 and 4 (no cut) at the host course Pebble Beach to crown a champion and pay out the $20 million purse.

Horses for Courses

Jordan Spieth (+1800 at BetMGM Sportsbook) has played annually since 2013 and has advanced to the weekend during that stretch. The 2017 champion finished second on 17-under to Tom Hoge (+10000) in 2022 and ran T3 at the Pebble/Spyglass-only combo in 2021. Cashing T22 or better in nine of 11 appearances, the Texan has experienced every kind of wind direction, weather, and set-up during his run.

Greens in Regulation

Players listed are in the field this week; 2023 season stats.

While I’m not omitting Spyglass Hill GC, I’m choosing to focus on the course hosting three of the four rounds, including the most important 36 holes on the weekend. Measuring 3,500 square feet on average, Pebble Beach owns the smallest greens on TOUR. The Poa annua postage stamps have been pummeled by the recent champions. With fairways generously wide, throwing darts from the short grass at pins is required. Defending champ Justin Rose (+6600), owner of two top-10 finishes from four starts, is the only champion in the last decade to rank outside the top 10 (T34).

Jason Day (+4000) passed on attending the 2023 edition, ending his streak of appearances at 10 consecutive years. Producing 11 top-25 paydays, with eight cashing inside the top 10, the Australian has racked up T11 or better in seven of his last eight. Never raising the trophy, his best payday was T2 in 2018, and he sits sixth on the all-time money list. Appearing for the 14th time, there’s no cramming for the test, and he won’t have a pesky cut to worry about this week.

Scrambling

Missing the smallest targets on TOUR is going to happen. The Poa annua-Rye rough won’t be as intense as it was at Torrey Pines last week, but with rain forecast, it could turn wet and wild. Adding to the challenge of getting up and down will be over 100 bunkers framing the Poa annua greens. Once on the putting surfaces, the pros getting it inside the leather won’t fret over the famous wiggles and wobbles of the Poa annua.

Brendon Tood (+9000) co-authored the lowest aggregate on Pebble Beach last year at 11-under as he cashed T2. Picking up his third top-10 payday from five weekends over 10 starts, Todd will never win any awards for distance.

Denny McCarthy (+6600), who ended up T4 in the 2023 edition, was the other player who posted that number on Pebble Beach. Over the last two seasons, he’s produced his best two visits at the former Crosby Clambake (T4-T12).

Par-4 Scoring

Playing only 6,972 yards, Pebble Beach ranks in the top five shortest courses used on TOUR. The winning score at the event hasn’t dropped below 17-under since the 2014 edition. With the weather forecast, the tournament record of 22-under (three-course rotation) should be safe. When this event was played on the two-course rotation of Pebble Beach-Spyglass in 2021 without amateurs, the winning score was 18-under. Rose, the three-shot winner last year, is the only winner in the last decade not to finish first or second in this category.

Patrick Cantlay (+2000) returns to a happy hunting ground for the first time since 2022. Tying the course record at Pebble Beach (62, Round 1) in 2021 was the highlight of a three-year run from 2020-22 that included T11-T3-T4. Never missing the weekend from six starts, he has produced four results of T11 or better.

Oddsmaker’s Extras

• Max Homa (+1800): Playing collegiate golf up the coast at Cal Berkeley, the Californian makes his seventh start at the event. Appearing for the first time since 2021, he will look to add to his current streak of T7-T14-T10.
• Matt Fitzpatrick (+3300): I don’t believe the set-up for a pro-am will rival a U.S. Open, but the Englishman ran T6 here in 2022 and was T12 at the U.S. Open in 2019.
• Beau Hossler (+5000): Recently, the Long Beach native has figured it out on the 17 Mile Drive. Playing for the eighth consecutive event, he ran T3 in 2022 and bagged T11 last year. The only caveat here is his Pebble Beach scores aren’t elite over those two editions. Caution.
• Nick Taylor (+9000): The 2020 champion is on a run of five straight and seven of nine career starts, including T20-T14 the last two seasons.
• Maverick McNealy (+17500): Pebble Beach was his home course growing up. The Stanford star went close (solo second) in the Spyglass/Pebble-only edition in 2021 after cashing T5 in 2020.
• Seamus Power (+30000): Only two players on the board carry longer odds than the Irishman. Dealing with a hip injury from last August, he should perk up this week. Opening 64-64 at Spyglass/Pebble in 2022, he led by five shots after 36 holes before eventually cashing T9. Cashing T15 last year, this longshot, if healthy, could surprise.

Official World Golf Ranking Top 30 (not mentioned above)

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