Draws and Fades: Look to Englishman Matt Wallace, local product Kelly Kraft for halfway-point value

Halfway through THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, the tournament has played out largely as expected. A receptive golf course has yielded birdies by the bunches, and dozens of players have raced out to card rounds in the low to mid 60s.

With the winning score at least 23-under each of the last three years at TPC Craig Ranch, we’re again on track as Jake Knapp leads by one at 14-under and stands atop the updated odds board. Twelve players head into the weekend at 10-under or better, and you had to shoot 6-under just to make the 36-hole cut.

Perhaps it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see Knapp’s name atop the standings after consecutive rounds of 7-under 64, given the similarities to the Mexico Open where he broke through for his maiden win earlier this year. Both venues offer ample room off the tee, ask players more to pile up birdies than avoid bogeys, and set up as a 72-hole sprint to a supremely low score. Knapp is halfway home, sitting third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and second in SG: Approach and leading the tournament despite losing strokes around the greens.

Updated odds to win THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson (via BetMGM Sportsbook):

• +400: Jake Knapp (-14)
• +750: Matt Wallace (-13)
• +900: Keith Mitchell (-11)
• +1200: Troy Merritt (-13)
• +1400: Alex Noren (-10)
• +1800: Taylor Pendrith (-11), Davis Riley (-11), Si Woo Kim (-9)
• +2200: Aaron Rai (-10), Byeong-Hun An (-9), Kelly Kraft (-12)
• +3000: Adam Schenk (-9), S.H. Kim (-10)

And while the chase pack isn’t as formidable as other weeks – of the 13 players listed at +3000 or better at BetMGM Sportsbook, only six have a PGA TOUR win to their credit – this thing remains relatively wide open. It’s not as tightly packed as last week’s Zurich Classic, where five shots separated the leaders from the cut line, but the group sitting at 8-under (T25) likely head into the third round believing they still have a path to victory.

Here are the players I’m eyeing for a halfway investment, as well as those whose price might be a little too short given the challenges that lie ahead this weekend:

Draws

Matt Wallace (T2, +750)

Anyone that can cold top it into a hazard and still save par has both my respect and attention. That’s what Wallace did during the second, round, a 66 that featured only one dropped shot after a bogey-free effort on Thursday. The Englishman trails only Kelly Kraft (noted below) in SG: Tee-to-Green, and he’s been magnificent around the greens on the few holes where he hasn’t been putting for birdie.

Wallace earned his first TOUR win last year at Puntacana but has been successful on the DP World Tour, narrowly missing out on a Ryder Cup bid a few years back, and he has challenged before in majors. This environment won’t rattle him, and I like the notion that he’ll be alongside Knapp in Saturday’s final group. Of the three players currently priced below +1000, Wallace is the one I’d be adding to my card.

Kelly Kraft (Fourth, +2200)

Kraft is a local product, as the former U.S. Amateur champion and SMU standout grew up in nearby Denton, Texas, and now lives in the Dallas area. He’s sleeping in his own bed this week, for whatever that’s worth. My eye is more drawn to his ball-striking numbers, as Kraft leads the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach through two rounds.

Kraft is playing with conditional status this season, and he told reporters after the round that he hasn’t gotten into as many events this year as he expected. That creates a sense of urgency, and thus far this week he has made the most of his opportunity. At 35 he’s still in search of his first TOUR win, but I think this price is overly influenced by his lack of starts this year. If he keeps hitting it like he has the first two days, Kraft will be in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

Fades

Keith Mitchell (T5, +900)

I just feel like this price is based more on reputation than performance. Mitchell has been a popular pick in recent weeks, and he’s again playing well tee-to-green through 36 holes in Dallas. But good enough to merit this position on the odds board when he’s three shots back and there are 12 players between 10 and 14-under par? I would keep shopping.

Like Knapp, Mitchell fits the mold of someone who should have some success this week – but he’s not exactly rolling on the greens. Mitchell has failed to crack the top 60 in SG: Putting in each of the first two rounds, and I’m concerned that he won’t be able to convert enough birdie opportunities to keep pace on a crowded leaderboard when the winning score seems destined for the low 20s under par once again.

Troy Merritt (T2, +1200)

There’s a reason why Merritt’s price is so significantly higher than the other two players at 13-under or better (Knapp and Wallace), even though all three have won before on TOUR. Merritt is much more mercurial, having burst into the mix this week with a 9-under 62 in Round 2. The veteran is doing it all with the putter, leading the field in SG: Putting while picking up 5.739 strokes through two rounds. Even for a good putter like Merritt, those numbers just aren’t sustainable. Throw in the fact that he’s 78th in SG: Off-the-Tee and not known for his prodigious length, and I just don’t see Merritt being able to lean on the putter for two more rounds. Sometimes the price is the price for a reason.

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