Draws and Fades: Rory McIlroy/Shane Lowry favored, but value elsewhere in Big Easy

The leaderboard at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans has thinned – but not by much.

Entering the third round in the Big Easy, a whopping total of five shots separated the overnight leaders with the groups that made the cut on the number. With a second crack at the easier Four-ball format, teams knew that they needed to take full advantage of relatively benign conditions at TPC Louisiana.

No one did that better than the duo of Zac Blair and Patrick Fishburn, who raced from the back of the pack to the top of the standings with a 12-under 60 that gave them a one-shot lead entering the final round. Luke List and Henrik Norlander are their closest pursuers, but there are a total of eight teams that head into Sunday’s final round at 20 under or better – meaning they’ll each be within three shots of the lead.

Chief among that chase pack is the high-profile pairing of Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, who birdied five holes on the back nine to get within two of the lead and re-establish themselves as the in-play betting favorites.

Updated odds to win the Zurich Classic (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

• +260: Rory McIlroy/Shane Lowry (-21)
• +333: Patrick Fishburn/Zac Blair (-23)
• +400: Luke List/Henrik Norlander (-22)
• +1000: Nick Taylor/Adam Hadwin (-20), Ryan Brehm/Mark Hubbard (-21)
• +1400: Michael Kim/K.H. Lee (-20), C.T. Pan/Kevin Yu (-20)
• +2000: Max Greyserman/Nico Echavarria (-20)

With the more difficult Foursomes format on deck, further separation is expected as the contenders vie for the trophy and team title. Here are the teams I’m looking at for in-play possibilities heading into the final round in New Orleans:

Draws

Luke List/Henrik Norlander (2nd, +400)

Of the top teams, I find my eyes drawn to these two with one round to go. List has two PGA TOUR wins to his credit, while Norlander is looking for a breakthrough victory after a few close calls. They’ll have the benefit of being alongside Fishburn and Blair in the final pairing, meaning they’ll know what the overnight leaders are doing – and they’ll have a clear view of McIlroy and Lowry up ahead of them.

List and Norlander charged up the board with a 10-under 62 Saturday, and all three rounds thus far have been sub-70. They’ll certainly need something in the 60s to have a chance at the team title, but List’s ball-striking in particular should provide the team with plenty of birdie chances. If Norlander can hold up his end of the bargain on the greens, they’ll have a chance.

Nick Taylor/Adam Hadwin (T5, +1000)

I’m admittedly biased here, having tabbed the Canadians as my top pre-tournament selection. But what can I say? I’m loyal. Taylor and Hadwin have done nothing to make me look elsewhere through 54 holes, consistently hanging just on the fringe of the leaderboard. That includes Saturday, when the pair carded a 64 to reach 20 under and within three of the lead.

The ball-striking has been quite solid, but what I like most is their penchant for clutch moments on the greens – particularly Taylor, who showed he has ice in his veins en route to an impressive win in Phoenix earlier this year. Taylor and Hadwin were runners-up last year, and they’re certainly motivated to do one spot better. I like their combination of leaderboard position, in-play price and overall upside.

Fades

Patrick Fishburn/Zac Blair (Lead by 1, +333)

This is a situational fade, as Fishburn and Blair came out of nowhere and now must face the elevated spotlight of the final group. Each seeking their first PGA TOUR win, they didn’t exactly head to New Orleans with a ton of momentum: Fishburn’s T23 finish at the Corales Puntcana Championship was just his second made cut in nine starts, while Blair had missed three cuts in a row and his best finish of the year (T30) came in his first start back in January.

Their third-round 60 was one shot off the tournament record, but now they’re heading back to Foursomes where they posted a more modest 2-under 70 on Friday. Combine the more difficult format with the pressures of the lead and a group like McIlroy and Lowry in close pursuit, and I’m expecting someone from the chase pack to overtake them by the turn.

Rory McIlroy/Shane Lowry (T3, +260)

Can they win? Sure. Does the number justify the situation? Not exactly. This leaderboard is full of teams with minimal hardware and high hopes. It makes the two Ryder Cup veterans stick out like a sore thumb, especially with fellow chalk-ers Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay (T27) fading on Saturday. Casual bettors will flock to these two, meaning the value will likely be elsewhere on a board where several teams have a legitimate shot at the title. As with most teams, these two have feasted on Four-ball – but the margin for error will drop considerably in the final round. It means that things are more prone to get a little weird, like we saw last year when Davis Riley and Nick Hardy rallied for the victory, so betting on the clear chalk here doesn’t feel like a prudent investment – especially when they’re in chase mode.

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