Draws & Fades: Akshay Bhatia blitz sets up great chance at Valero Texas Open

Akshay Bhatia has a golden opportunity to collect a pair of victory cowboy boots at the Valero Texas Open after the 22-year-old blitzed the field with an opening 9-under 63 at TPC San Antonio.

Bhatia, a winner at the 2023 Barracuda Championship, is coming off back-to-back TOUR top-20s and sits three shots ahead of his nearest competitors despite playing in the trickier winds of the afternoon.

Those San Antonio winds are forecast to pick up even further on Friday afternoon meaning the players who have afternoon tee times tomorrow could have a rougher time of things than those heading out in the morning.

The Californian is returning in the morning as the +333 betting favorite (via BetMGM Sportsbook) with a golden opportunity to kick on and chase down another victory.

Coming from the Southwest the Friday breeze is forecast at 12-18 mph with gusts up to 28 mph, picking up to its peak from noon onwards.

Justin Lower, the Thursday morning pacesetter, and Brendon Todd sit in second after rounds of 66 before another jump to Max Homa, Denny McCarthy, Tyson Alexander and Austin Eckroat. That quartet share fourth at 4-under.

Pre-tournament favorite Rory McIlroy is the biggest name of many at 3-under and is +800, six off the pace.

Bhatia ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and second in SG: Around-the-Green and SG: Approach. Only the around the green mark is distinctly ahead of his season ranks which brings more confidence in his position.

Five of the last six Valero Texas Open champions were top four in SG: Approach and three of them led the field. Last year the top four on the leaderboard were also the top four in SG: Approach. Seven of the last eight winners were top five in SG: Tee-to-Green.

But +333 for any player with 54 holes left is a tough number to swallow. As a bettor, you must decide whether you’ve already missed the Bhatia boat or if you’re willing to ride the waves of his live numbers going forward.

I like the youngster as a potential winner from here but expect he will be above +333 at some point over the next three rounds. In other words, at this juncture, draw the player, but fade the current number. Even if he goes wire-to-wire a 3 to 1 risk seems aggressive with winds also set for Saturday afternoons lead groups.

Hopefully, Bhatia fans will get a similar number with 18 holes to play.

Here are the latest outright odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +333: Akshay Bhatia (-9, 1st)
• +800: Rory McIlroy (-3, T8)
• +1000: Brendon Todd (-6, T2)
• +1200: Max Homa (-4, T4)
• +2500: Corey Conners (-2, T17)
• +2800: Russell Henley (-3, T8)
• +3000: Austin Eckroat (-4, T4)
• +3000: Collin Morikawa (-2, T17)
• +3000: Denny McCarthy (-4, T4)

DRAWS

Austin Eckroat +3000 (-4, T4)

This was a mind wrestle with myself as while Eckroat is a recent winner on TOUR at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, he has also thrown up final rounds of 75 and 76 in his last two starts. But I’m riding the data on this one as we look for options outside of Bhatia at the top. Eckroat ranked first in the field in SG: Off the Tee, third in SG: Tee-to-Green and 10th in SG: Approach on Thursday. He sits 17th on the season Tee-to-Green and 21st in Approach so this is not out of the ordinary and can possibly be maintained. He also has the benefit of an 8:26 a.m. tee time off the 10th tee, avoiding the tough first, third and fourth holes until further into his groove.

Corey Conners +2500 (-2, T18)

The defending champion might be seven shots off the pace AND due out in the afternoon wave on Friday, but he still represents a player who has the capacity to move up the leaderboard over three rounds. Conners not only won here in 2023 but also in 2019 and clearly knows his way around the joint. His scrambling, just three of six, let him down on Thursday but improvement in his approach game is on the horizon. Check his price in the last hour before his 1:08 p.m. tee time, along with the most recent wind forecast.

FADE

Justin Lower +3300 (-6, T2)

Lower played lovely golf in the morning wave on Thursday to set a great pace and on paper a 33 to 1 number for someone close to the lead may seem tempting. But his scoring came by virtue of leading the field in SG: Putting rather than his approach play (57th). With negative season numbers in SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee and SG: Around the Green the concern of regression is high.