Draws & Fades: Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas lurk ominously at WM Phoenix Open

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – The three-peat is alive after pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler made his move during the second round of the WM Phoenix Open.

Scheffler finished his rain delayed 3-under 68 opening round before a 5-under 66 in the afternoon to move to 8-under at TPC Scottsdale, four shots back of leaders Nick Taylor (60-70) and Andrew Novak (65-65) at 12-under.

Taylor was the main combatant for Scheffler a year ago before he settled for second. But since then, he’s won the RBC Canadian Open.

“I think I'm better," Taylor said when asked if he was a better player now than a year ago. "I think more experience being in situations dating back to this tournament. If I'm one percent better than last year, that's probably all I was looking for.

“I've been in the moment, so I feel comfortable in those. There's no guarantee there, but I'll draw back on those experiences, and hopefully it'll help me.”

The leaders have a two-shot buffer to Maverick McNealy (65-67) at 10-under, while Doug Ghim holds fourth alone at 9-under through 16 holes.

After over three hours of rain delays on Thursday, further delays came via frost on Friday morning, leaving the second round incomplete. Half the field will return early Saturday to get through their second round before a cut will be made.

Joining Scheffler at 8-under is pre-tournament second favorite Justin Thomas (69-65), with both juggernauts lurking as serious contenders for the trophy. Former PGA TOUR rookie of the year Cameron Young (67-67) is also 8-under, as is New Zealand’s Ryan Fox after having played 15 holes of his second round.

Four players are now under +1000 to win the tournament: Scheffler (+400), Taylor (+600), Thomas (+700) and Sahith Theegala (+750). Only Theegala hasn’t played a second round.

I believe Scheffler is a legitimate favorite, even if I’d like to see better odds. I’ll refrain from officially drawing or fading him tonight, but beware, the +400 might be the best you see from this point on.

Throughout the week it appeared Theegala was on the wrong side of the draw, but with the rain forecast now showing less chance of precipitation, he has the chance to move himself up the leaderboard on Saturday morning.

Yesterday’s draws of Young (+1400 to +1600), Taylor (+4000 to +600) and Thomas (+1400 to +700) performed well, while the fade of Jordan Spieth (+1200 to +2500) proved astute also. Let’s see if we can do something similar today.

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook followed by my thoughts of who to target ahead of the resumption of play.

• +400: Scottie Scheffler (-8, T5)
• +600: Nick Taylor (-12, T1)
• +700: Justin Thomas (-8, T5)
• +750: Sahith Theegala (-6 through one round, T14)
• +1400: Andrew Novak (-12, T1)
• +1600: Cameron Young (-8, T5)
• +2000: Sam Burns (-7, T9)
• +2000: Doug Ghim (-9 through 16, 4th)
• +2000: Maverick McNealy (-10, 3rd)
• +2500: Jordan Spieth (-3 through 2, T37)
• +2500: Ryan Fox (-8 thru 15, T5)

DRAWS

Justin Thomas (+700)

I refuse to jump off my pre-tournament pick despite the fact he admits he hasn’t played his best and looked dog-tired at the end of play. The good news is his third round won’t start for some time giving him a chance to recharge.

“I'm going to, first off, get some sleep, get some rest. I just need to sharpen up my wedges and my short irons,” Thomas said. “I just let entirely too many birdie opportunities go I felt like this afternoon, and it's just hard because usually it's warm here and you know the ball goes further. But when it's this cold in the 40s, it's hard to sometimes trust that altitude and play it, at least to me.

“That's something that maybe just 30, 45 minutes on the range of hitting some wedges on TrackMan (is needed), just getting some numbers and some confidence to where I feel like I can think a little less when I'm out on the course.”

Thomas currently ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 29th on Approach but is just 45th in Putting, a number that will likely slide further as others finish their second rounds.

I might need to pull some splinters out of my backside because now I’m starting to sit on the fence on the two-time major winner.

Clearly, he will need to putt better over the weekend and hopefully the putter switch he made between the first and second rounds pays dividends. But I remain buoyed by Thomas’ last five starts at the WMPO that read 4-8-13-3-3.

Cameron Young (+1600)

My colleague Will Gray is livid at me for trying to mush his Cameron Young pre-tournament pick yesterday but I’m doubling down as I think he’s on to something. At fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee and eighth in SG: Putting, Young is seriously lurking.

He sits four back despite missing a handful of birdie chances he’d have liked to convert.

FADE

The Golfbet crew got fired up when I suggested we fade Novak in this slot saying it was “too obvious.” But I pointed out the top four all have great reasons to be where they are on the odds board.

The opposite way of thinking is we have had five triple-digit odds winners to start the PGA TOUR season and Novak opened +50000…

Jordan Spieth (+2500)

Sorry, Jordan, I’m coming for you again. With 16 holes to play in his second round, I’m just not confident he has a 66 or better in him, which is what he needs to really be a contender.

The fact is Spieth ranks 115th in SG: Approach. If he can’t fix that, he won’t be able to chase down the birdies he will need short of more miracle hole outs or long bomb putts.