Ludvig Aberg has game to out-shine the field in the Motor City

DETROIT – The scoring is low to open the Rocket Mortgage Classic – but maybe not as low as some predicted.

In his press conference as defending champion, Tony Finau mentioned we might see a winning score of 30 under at Detroit Golf Club. Max Homa thought he might be looking up at a 61 before he even started his opening round Thursday afternoon, and stressed the need to brace against a desire to chase such a score before even putting a tee in the ground.

Yes, there are red numbers at DGC. More than 100 players broke par, and more than 50 players opened with a round in the 60s. But with two players sharing the lead at 8-under 64, and another seven players just one shot back, the proceedings remain wide-open after one day in the Motor City.

Monday qualifier Peter Kuest made the day’s biggest charge, coming from obscurity to grab a share of the FRL pot while his outright odds tumbled from +35000 to +3500. He was joined late in the day by Taylor Moore, a winner earlier this year at the Valspar Championship. The shot of the day? That came from Dylan Wu, who jarred his approach from 262 yards for an albatross on the par-5 14th en route to an opening 65.

But none of those players are atop the updated betting board. The new favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook is two-time major champ Collin Morikawa, who put together a bogey-free 66 to sit two shots off the pace. With big names like Finau (72), Tom Kim (73), Hideki Matsuyama (75) and Justin Thomas (76) all faltering, it’s Morikawa who leads the (betting) pack heading into Friday.

Updated odds to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (via BetMGM)

+800: Collin Morikawa

+900: Taylor Moore

+1000: Rickie Fowler

+1100: Ludvig Aberg

+1400: Adam Schenk, Aaron Rai, Justin Suh

+2200: Sungjae Im

+2500: Adam Hadwin, Dylan Wu, Sam Bennett

+3300: Doug Ghim, Max Homa

+3500: Sam Ryder, Chris Kirk, Peter Kuest

+4000: Keegan Bradley

+5000: Nicolai Hojgaard, Taylor Pendrith, Brian Harman

So where to go from here, with the haze expected to lift but the low scores likely to remain? I have my eye on a couple of upstart contenders – although I’m not looking to buy into the new betting favorite at this stage.

Draws

Ludvig Aberg (+1100)

He really did turn heads today. Playing for Texas Tech just a few weeks ago, the PGA TOUR U graduate was absolutely dialed in while hitting every fairway and all but one green in regulation. An eagle on No. 7 lifted him to 9 under, so after closing with back-to-back bogeys his 65 felt almost like the worst score he could have shot. That late regression did increase the in-play price on the promising Swede.

“Driver is one of my favorite clubs, and I like hitting it,” Aberg said.

Aberg has plenty of motivation this week, not the least of which is another tee time alongside European Ryder Cup captain Luke Donald Friday with captain’s picks for Rome approaching quickly on the horizon. He was among the more popular pre-tournament plays at BetMGM, shifting from +5000 to +4000 based on early-week trading. The name recognition may still be building, but bettors are already seeing his value.

Aberg has top-25 finishes in each of his last two starts in Canada and Connecticut, but this course feels like an even better fit. The leader in SG: Off the Tee and Tee to Green in the opening round, Aberg will absolutely be in the mix over the weekend if the driver continues to operate. By then, the only thing missing will be a four-digit outright price.

Adam Schenk (+1400)

The win is coming soon. Schenk has been on the cusp of a watershed victory this season, notably at Colonial where he lost to Emiliano Grillo in a playoff. He’s again in the mix this week in Detroit after opening with a 6-under 66 that featured eight birdies.

Schenk has missed each of his last two cuts after that near-miss in Fort Worth, but here’s why I like him this week: it’s launch city off the tee. His biggest weakness this season is the driver, ranking 102nd on TOUR in SG: Off the Tee for the season. But there’s more room to miss than usual around Detroit GC, meaning he doesn’t put himself in as many poor spots and allows the other parts of his game to shine.

Thursday Schenk hit just 10 fairways but found 17 of 18 greens in regulation and ranked 14th in the field in SG: Off the Tee. The penalty for a small miss just isn’t as big around here. It allows players to go pin-seeking with confidence, and few in the field were more dialed in with their irons Thursday than Schenk.

The lessons of Valspar and Colonial were hard-earned, but if he’s in position again come Sunday afternoon they’ll likely prove beneficial as he continues to chase that elusive W.

Fades

Collin Morikawa (+800)

I’m just not sold that Morikawa is back – all the way back, including the putter.

Yes, there have been signs of promise. He was in position through 54 holes at the Memorial before tweaking his back. He had a 63 last week in Cromwell, but it still wasn’t enough to make the cut.

Thursday he barely broke a sweat, turning in a 66 that included a hole-out for birdie from the sand on No. 18.

“I didn’t put myself in really many bad spots,” Morikawa said. “It was a lot of easy, 10- or 15-footers for birdie, and hopefully we can just kind of get more of those rolling for the rest of the week.”

Therein lies the rub for the former world No. 2. Morikawa will need to make putts, plural and with regularity, to keep pace this week on a course where his approach prowess is somewhat mitigated since the targets are hiding in plain sight. He’s 143rd this season in SG: Putting but had a good day on the greens in the opening round, gaining 1.873 strokes and ranking 25th in the field.

If Morikawa is still a top-25 putter by the end of the week, this is his tournament to lose. But I remain concerned that his variance remains higher than he would prefer. He was open with reporters about his continued search for swing keys, having locked in on a new thought during Wednesday’s pro-am.

“They’re just fine margins,” he said.

With many of the field’s stars off to a slow start, Morikawa absolutely has the game to run away from this pack. But I don’t love investing in him at this stage, as the favorite, given the fact that 18 or even nine holes of putting more in line with his season-long averages could be enough to derail his title chances in a week where those thin margins require everyone to keep their foot on the gas in pursuit of a winning score that will likely still exceed 20 under par.

The PGA TOUR is committed to protecting our fans. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, the National Council on Problem Gambling operates a confidential toll-free hotline that you can reach by phone or text at 1-800-522-4700.