Matt Kuchar could play spoiler at Valero Texas Open

It took three days, but the Valero Texas Open is finally on track – and the situation at TPC San Antonio is a bit more wide-open than it seemed 24 hours ago.

Patrick Rodgers was nearly unstoppable through the first two rounds on the Oaks Course, spinning together a three-shot overnight lead as he looks to win on TOUR for the first time. But Saturday, playing from the pole position, he was stopped. Not entirely, not in a way that unraveled the former Stanford standout’s title aspirations, but enough to let a handful of others right back into things.

Chief among them is the man he’ll see in Sunday’s final pairing, 2019 Valero winner Corey Conners. While Rodgers maintains a slim, one-shot lead, it’s Conners who heads into the final round as the betting favorite according to oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Updated odds to win Valero Texas Open (via BetMGM)

+160: Corey Conners (-11)

+200: Patrick Rodgers (-12)

+650: Matt Kuchar (-9)

+1600: Chris Kirk (-8)

+2500: Sam Stevens (-8)

+4000: Sam Ryder (-7)

+5000: Byeong-Hun An (-7), Hideki Matsuyama (-6), Padraig Harrington (-7)

Here’s a glance at some of the players I’m looking to back heading into the final round, along with those who might be priced too short:

Draws

Matt Kuchar (+650)

This just feels like an event Kuchar would win, right? Five top-15s at TPC San Antonio since 2014, highlighted by last year’s runner-up, speaks to an affinity for a course that few seem to have found a feel for, year in and year out. Kuchar’s ball-striking stats have perked up once again, as he leads the field in SG: Approach through three rounds. This, of course, is in spite of a closing double bogey Saturday that dropped him from Rodgers’ heels to three shots off the pace.

But I don’t have a ton of faith in the 54-hole leader (more on that below), nor am I fond of Conners’ putter, and Kuchar’s pedigree stands out on this leaderboard. Yes, it’s been more than four years since his most recent win, and that disaster on No. 18 could prove to be pivotal if he

struggles out of the gates on Sunday. But I’m more of a mind that it creates a bit of value in the price of a veteran that knows how to get it done down the stretch – even if it’s been awhile.

Padraig Harrington top-10 finish (+130)

The Irishman heads into the final round in a T-6 logjam, and this price at DraftKings indicates he’s expected to fall outside the top 10 by day’s end. But there’s been some wily shot-making from the former European Ryder Cup captain this week, as he ranks eighth in the field tee-to-green and has displayed a nifty short game.

Harrington is playing with (figurative) house money and has nothing to lose in the final round. But most importantly, he has the patience to craft his game around the nooks and crannies of the Oaks Course rather than trying to press at the wrong time. Don’t be surprised to see him keep that final result in single digits.

Fade

Patrick Rodgers (+200)

After a wobbly round, Rodgers said all the right things: he knows what’s at stake, knows that it’ll take a strong close to get it done, knows that patience will be a virtue. But still, that third round performance was telling: lost strokes with his approach play, 31st tee-to-green and not much better with the putter. It’s a performance that won’t earn him a new pair of boots on Sunday, should he replicate it.

Rodgers is among the more decorated players still in search of his first TOUR win, and this is absolutely a setting where a maiden triumph makes sense. But it’s hard to play from the lead for one day, let alone three, and it felt like if Rodgers was going to get it done he would’ve added distance from the field during the third round. Instead, he went the other direction – including a bogey on No. 18 that halved his advantage. The oddsmakers are showing their hand, so to speak, by pricing Conners ahead despite their flipped positions on the leaderboard. But I’m certainly not buying any Rodgers stock at this price given the circumstances.

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