Backing players with something to play for in Austin

“Sweet 16” weekend is underway in college basketball and it is about to commence at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play after the conclusion of play Friday at Austin Country Club. The pre-tournament favorites are looking good to advance into what is the knockout round. Scottie Scheffler is 2-0 in his matches through the first two days, as are Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay. Jon Rahm is 1-1 with a match on Friday pending against past tournament champion, Billy Horschel.

Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Lucas Herbert, Brian Harman, Andrew Putnam, Cameron Young, Taylor Montgomery, Max Homa, Sam Burns, Jason Day, J.T. Poston, and J.J. Spaun are all 2-0 in their respective round-robin play heading into Friday’s final day of group play.

The weather forecast has been accurate for the first two days of the event, with the wind strengthening quite a bit during Thursday’s action. Start times have been moved to earlier in the morning on Friday with the threat of rain, but it is expected to calm down around 1 p.m. ET – with no real wind being a factor at all, throughout the day.

I was successful in my first-round pre-tournament matchup plays, landing correctly on Finau over Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Corey Conners over Sepp Straka, and Montgomery over Shane Lowry. I missed on Will Zalatoris over Andrew Putnam.

On Day 2, I wanted to go against players that had unusually easy rounds on Day 1. I went against Cameron Young after he was so incredibly scorching hot in his first round against Davis Thompson, expecting Young to regress somewhat in his follow up match. I ended up taking a pretty a tough beat with Corey Conners, who was leading the match through 15 holes before eventually falling to Young, 1-up. I successfully went against Jordan Spieth, who was coming off of a grueling finish at the Valspar Championship and arrived to Austin on a short week. I also went against Sungjae Im, who despite winning on Thursday, did not play very well in a misleading 8-and-6 demolition of Maverick McNealy.

For Day 3, I am looking at motivational factors and who has been in good (or poor) form for the first two rounds. (All odds below are 3-way lines via BetMGM Sportsbook.)

Draws: Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood

Fades: Shane Lowry, Tom Hoge, Sungjae Im

Jordan Spieth (-125) over Shane Lowry

My handicap in going against Lowry in Round 1 had much to do about how poor his short-game numbers have been this season versus how remarkable they had been for his opponent, Taylor Montgomery. Here we have another short-game wizard in Spieth and a player who has motivation to possibly win the group versus a player who has already been eliminated in Lowry, who is off to an 0-2 start. Off of the short week, I felt Spieth was possibly going to experience some fatigue and maybe that showed up on Thursday, but I sense a rebound here on Friday against a player who is likely a bit checked out and ready to head to Augusta National for The Masters beginning in less than two weeks.

Xander Schauffele (-130) over Tom Hoge

Schauffele is, very quietly, right in the mix to win this championship. I did not see too much love for him pre-tournament and I don’t believe he’s really received much of the buzz since, despite a 2-0 start in group play. He did pan out very strongly in my numbers crunch prior to the event teeing off, but I didn’t feel I was getting a fair outright price on him pre-tourney, so I ultimately held off. I’m starting to feel however, that his somewhat under-the-radar success through two days, is something to be reckoned with. On Friday, he takes on Tom Hoge, who is 0-2 so far in group play. Hoge has not been playing poorly, making multiple birdies in both of his losing efforts. But having done that with nothing to show for it, I suspect he might be frustrated and ready to pack his bags with no chance to advance. I’ll lay the price with Xander and the run that he is currently enjoying.

Tommy Fleetwood (+135) over Sungjae Im

Through two days of match play action, Tommy Fleetwood, in my opinion, has played better than Sungjae Im has. Im was the beneficiary of a disastrous opening round by Maverick McNealy. On Day 2, Im led J.T. Poston, 3-up through 12 holes and 2-up through 14. Im lost the match when Poston managed to win four the final six holes. That has to weigh heavily on the mind of Im, and getting up for Friday’s contest could be a real challenge. Fleetwood knows he’s done and Augusta is next on his schedule, but Im could still possibly win the group despite dealing with Friday’s ordeal. I feel like he’s stuck in the middle while Fleetwood, who has played well, can play freely, knowing he has the weekend off.

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