Prop Farm: Head-to-head markets full of opportunity at TPC Craig Ranch

The first Saturday in May is like a holiday in Las Vegas. It begins with some mint juleps and the running of the Kentucky Derby, followed by a prize fight later that evening. On the PGA TOUR we have a couple more races before the second major championship of the season tees off at Valhalla Golf Club - also in Kentucky, but on the third Thursday in May.

For the second straight week, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is not in the field. Even with THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson being not far from Scheffler's hometown of Dallas, the PGA Championship favorite remains in waiting on the birth of his first child. It is not, however, stopping the bettors from backing him at the window.

Scheffler to sweep all four major championships this season began at +8000. That dropped to +5000 after he won the Masters and down to +4000 after winning the very next week at Harbour Town Golf Links.

"(Scheffler) to complete the Grand Slam has been extremely popular for the punters at +4000 especially after he won the RBC Heritage,” said Tristan Davis, senior manager at Mandalay Bay Race and Sportsbook. "Handle has dropped since he did not play last week or this week's tournament, but I’m sure the next time he goes, the popularity of the market will come back.”

Noted Las Vegas oddsmaker Jeff Sherman concurred. "We're not seeing much at this time for the PGA Championship, but bettors continue to play the Grand Slam (prop) due to the low risk, high reward, said Sherman. "All public/recreational play.”

As far as this week's event, it is the fourth consecutive season that TPC Craig Ranch has played host to the long-standing PGA TOUR event, honoring the late, great Texas golfer, Byron Nelson. Sherman pointed out what he has seen so far.

"Byeong Hun An is getting support from the public and Tom Hoge is getting support from the sharps in the outright market," Sherman said.

"It's a split decision in terms of handle between Si Woo Kim and Jordan Spieth (+1600) with just over 20% of handle between them," added Davis from the Mandalay Bay perspective. "Not far behind we have seen good support for Tom Hoge and Min Woo Lee who are both at +2800.”

Sherman too is seeing public support for Kim. "The public is on Si Woo Kim to finish top 20," he said. Kim is a Dallas resident and finished runner-up here last year. As far as sharp play in the Finish Position market, Sherman noted a name taking action that we seem to hear from every week. "The sharps are on Keith Mitchell for a top-20." Mitchell is yet to miss a cut at TPC Craig Ranch but in three tries, while his highest finish is 26th.

Senior data analyst at BetMGM, Drew O'Dell, is seeing action on Mitchell and Kim in a different market. "Keith Mitchell and Si Woo Kim are both responsible for 3.2% of the ticket count to be First Round Leader," said O'Dell before adding, "Only Spieth, Alex Noren and defending champion Jason Day are higher in ticket count percentage in that market."

A similar split in the outright winner market too. "Spieth, Hoge and Kim have the highest ticket count percentages to win it, noted O'Dell. "But our biggest liability is slightly different with Hoge leading the way, followed by Spieth and Jake Knapp."

When transitioning to the tournament head-to-head matchup market, Davis listed four that are garnering attention at Mandalay Bay. "On the sharp side of things we have some tournament matchups that have been well supported: Sungjae Im to beat Min Woo Lee, -110 into -120, Justin Lower to beat Sam Stevens, -125 to -135, Jhonattan Vegas to beat Vincent Norrman, -110 to -120, and Garrick Higgo to beat Ryo Hisatsune, +120 to +105,” Davis said. “All has been sharp money."

Personally, I played two head-to-head tournament matchups at BetMGM. Adam Schenk (-105) to beat Hoge and Noren (+100) to beat Spieth. Those prices remain unchanged.

For outright winners this week, I played Noren, An, Schenk, Mackenzie Hughes and Maverick McNealy. I'm counting on it being a five-horse race when they come down the stretch on this first Saturday in May - and of course, on into Sunday as well.

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