Prop Farm: Look for Nick Taylor, Adam Hadwin to improve on last year’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans runner-up

After 16 straight weeks on TOUR of standard stroke-play tournaments, the Zurich Classic of New Orleans features a twist. Eighty teams of two players each will compete this week at TPC Louisiana with the top 33 teams and ties making the cut after 36 holes. Thursday and Saturday, the two-person teams will play Four-Balls (best ball) and on Friday and Sunday, they will play Foursomes (alternate shot).

It is hard enough to handicap a field of individuals and try to find some winning wagers but when you turn a single player into a two-headed dynamic, the challenges multiply. For any team event, I like to look at current form. If both team members come into the event playing well, that can't be a bad thing. I also like to look at complementary skill sets. Maybe Player A is a great ball-striker and Player B is an excellent putter. And finally, team chemistry. The hard part is much of this is guess work and not truly quantifiable - especially when you pair the two players and we grade their results as one unit.

"This tournament traditionally takes less handle with the team format, which I think either doesn’t resonate with bettors or they just don’t know how to approach handicapping it," said Thomas Gable, director of race and sports at The Borgata in New Jersey.

Senior manager at Mandalay Bay Race and Sportsbook, Tristan Davis, offered his theory. "The team event with alternate formats probably throws a few curveballs into some models, so I'm not expecting a lot from the sharp guys this week," he said.

Personally, I don't believe there is a connection between the betting enthusiasm being down this week and trying to sort through just exactly what Scottie Scheffler has been doing on TOUR for the last couple of months. But I wonder if the interest from the casual fan or recreational bettor would be accelerated to a much greater degree had this been Jordan Spieth or Rory McIlroy on this type of historic run, or Tiger Woods for example.

"(Scheffler's) character is not polarizing, so the story seems nonchalant,” said Las Vegas oddsmaker Jeff Sherman. "Although, they are betting on him to complete the Grand Slam this season and our price has come down."

Davis chimed in, saying, "I think with making big headlines of Scheffler's winning streak, people have to be tuning in. I think there are grounds to say that he would even be attracting new bettors. In the Tiger days, sure, he would make more noise but still I think Scottie and Nelly Korda, for the same reasons, are attracting new bettors. I would be more than happy if Scottie were to play on TOUR every week."

After winning four times in his last five starts, Scheffler is not in this week's field as he continues to eagerly await the birth of his first child - and we eagerly await his return to action. Interestingly enough, Scheffler often pairs with Sam Burns in team formats. Burns, the Louisiana native who attended LSU and has experienced success in this event in the past, is also not in this week's field - as he too is expecting the birth of his first child any day now. But while the activity at the window may be lighter, there are still some bets being made this week in the Big Easy.

"Punters are betting into Theegala/Zalatoris (+800) like they have already won. They have been by far the most popular duo as of now with over 25% of handle," said Davis, Mandalay Bay's veteran bookmaker. "The favorites for the tournament, Cantlay/Schauffele (+450), have also had good support and further down the page the Canadians, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin, have also had a good following."

"Team Theegala/Zalatoris has taken some money for First Round Leader at +1800,” said Gable about what he is seeing at The Borgata. "The McIlroy/Lowry team at +750, however, has attracted the most action for overall winner."

Bogdanovich noted that has seen one small move this week. "Jhonattan Vegas/Bronson Burgoon (+12500) drew a little sharp action at a big number."

Drew O'Dell, senior data analyst at BetMGM, told me their most-bet pairs are among the shortest favorites: Theegala/Zalatoris, Cantlay/Schauffele and McIlroy/Lowry. But one difference surfaces when it comes to biggest liabilities.

"Theegala/Zalatoris is our biggest liability and Cantlay/Schauffele is our third largest,” O’Dell said, “but the team of Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin show up here as our second-biggest liability."

Theegala/Zalatoris is a great-looking team, perhaps enhanced by their appearances together on TV commercials as a couple of wild-west gunslingers. The Irish duo of McIlroy and Lowry is certainly appealing, and this is McIlroy's first-ever appearance at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Schauffele and Cantlay won this tournament in 2022.

The betting volume for myself was down a bit this week compared to traditional weeks on TOUR, but I’m keeping my focus on the outright market. I jumped on the Canadian duo of Taylor and Hadwin (+2500) as they look to build some Presidents Cup momentum together. Other pairs to make my outright card included Morikawa/Kitayama (+1200), Hoge/McNealy (+2500), Smalley/Schmid (+5500) and Echavarria/Greyserman (+8000).

It's a unique week on TOUR, and one that brings with it extra variables – but there are still options to cash a few tickets.

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