Prop Farm: Las Vegas bettors balancing Masters action amid search for Valero value

For many, it may feel like the calm before the storm. The Valero Texas Open will be the final test on TOUR before the season's first major championship. It's been roughly nine months since the last major was held and as usual, bettors have been chomping at the bit to get some action down on the Masters.

"I have to say, at this point, the Masters' handle has been quite good. A lot more than the lead-up to last year which is great to see," said Tristan Davis, senior manager at Mandalay Bay Race & Sportsbook. "We have notable Masters liabilities right now on Brooks Koepka and Wyndham Clark."

A trend that Davis pointed out in this column last week is bettors landing on some long shots who fared well the week before: "Once again a player who got close last week at big odds has had good support for this week in San Antonio," Davis explained. "This time it's David Skinns at +17500. Other than that, it has been a pretty quiet week so far. Punters maybe saving their cash for next week."

Thomas Gable, director of race and sports at The Borgata in New Jersey, isn't seeing a great deal of activity this week, either.

"Nothing real notable for the Valero other than in the outright market, where we are seeing a lot of long shots getting bet," said Gable. "As for the Masters, our biggest liability currently is Viktor Hovland at +1800. A little bit on Xander Schauffele and Max Homa, too."

For revered Las Vegas golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman, there has been no calm before the major storm. "It's not slower this week," Sherman said. "In fact, more handle on the Valero Texas Open than last week already."

Maybe the major championship anticipation has more bettors getting involved ahead of schedule.

"We took some sharp action this week on Matt Fitzpatrick and Billy Horschel to win in Texas," Sherman continued, who has been in the racket of golf odds-making for almost 30 years. "We do have some Masters liability already on Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama and Tiger Woods."

The Valero Texas Open field features 30 players already qualified for next week's trip to Georgia. Those not yet qualified can punch their ticket with a win come Sunday. At Mandalay Bay, Davis is seeing this week's heavy load come in on big names who are already in the field next week.

"Ludvig Åberg is who the punters are honing in on this week," Davis said. "So far he is responsible for 15% of the total hold at +1200 with Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy a distant second and third."

Hall of Fame bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich is taking action on a player still trying to get into the field for the Masters. "They're playing Keith Mitchell to win it this week," Bogdanovich said before noting, "We have liability for next week already on Clark and Sam Burns."

It is a tricky handicap this week with what lies ahead. How do the players already qualified for Augusta treat this week? How will the players not already qualified handle the pressure of trying to earn their way in? Horschel, who has a great track record at TPC San Antonio and has been playing very well as of late, is trying to avoid missing the Masters for the first time since 2017. He is currently 87th in the world rankings. Bogdanovich is seeing bettors back the long-time TOUR veteran to continue his recent push and noted, "They're betting Horschel on the 'yes' to finish top-20 this week."

Ryan Moore has played in 10 Masters, dating back to 2003, but hasn't been back since 2018. He has four top-15 finishes at Augusta and has only missed the cut twice. The 41-year-old finished fifth two weeks ago at the Valspar Championship and was 31st last week in Houston. "Moore is getting action on the 'yes' to make the cut at the Valero," said Bogdanovich.

In the head-to-head matchup market this week, the sharps are getting involved at Mandalay Bay. "There have been some good sharp moves. Max Homa to beat Spieth from +120 to +110, Rickie Fowler to beat Victor Perez from +100 into -110, and Charley Hoffman to beat Jhonattan Vegas from +105 into -110," said Davis.

Bogdanovich pointed out three matchups he has seen take sharp action: "Spieth over Collin Morikawa, Byeong-Hun An over Harris English, and Akshay Bhatia over Maverick McNealy have taken respected money."

Next week's field for the Masters is currently at 88 players. One more could be added depending on this week's results at the Valero Texas Open. Winds anywhere from 10-20 mph or stronger are expected this week in San Antonio. Is that a "calm before the storm?" Here in the Prop Farm, we turn to a quote that seems fitting for what's in store.

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