Prop Farm: Bettors finding creative ways to back Tiger Woods at Riviera

The West Coast Swing has nearly swung. The PGA TOUR makes its final California stop of the season this week at The Riviera Country Club in beautiful Pacific Palisades for The Genesis Invitational. It is a Signature Event with a loaded, 70-player field that includes tournament host Tiger Woods.

With NFL football in the rearview mirror and one of the marquee TOUR events on tap, bookmakers in Las Vegas are expecting the golf handle to see an increase.

"It's a super strong field, and then of course, Tiger - and the history of the event, those are the main reasons," said Sports Betting Hall of Fame bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich.

BetMGM Golf oddsmaker Scott Shelton from Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas said: "Yes, I would expect an increased handle with Tiger at (Riviera). I know we took a $1,500 bet on him at +10000 (to win $150,000)."

Drew O’Dell, an analyst for BetMGM, backed up what Shelton is seeing, noting that Woods is No. 1 as far as ticket count in the outright market: “As far as ticket percentage, Tiger is at 8%, followed by Justin Thomas (5.75%) and Scottie Scheffler (5.66%).

"The biggest liabilities for BetMGM in the outright market are Woods, Thomas and Sahith Theegala”

It is remarkable what the presence of Woods in a tournament can do. This will be Tiger’s first competitive round since December when he finished 18th out of a 20-person field at the Hero World Challenge in The Bahamas, shooting even par over the four days. Tristan Davis, senior manager at the Mandalay Bay Race & Sportsbook, is seeing more than just Woods to win The Genesis Invitational outright.

“Some punters think Tiger can finish in the top five. He has a bit of support here at +2200,” said Davis. “Tiger Woods Round 1 Specials have attracted some attention. Tiger to make an eagle at +400 and to have a bogey-free round at big odds of +2000.”

Matthew Wall, trading team lead for golf at BetMGM summed it all up: “Tiger Woods is by far the biggest liability and not just in winning The Genesis Invitational, but also in making the cut and finishing top 5/10/20. We’re expecting the action on Tiger to double over the weekend as well. The book needs anyone other than Tiger raising the trophy on Sunday evening.”

Well, that’s no fun, right? It is very true, however. Most bettors want to see heroics and fireworks, especially from the star players. Just like in the Super Bowl, recreational betters in the prop markets like to play on "yes” and “over” and the sportsbooks are usually rooting for the “no” and “under.” Sportsbooks won last weekend when Travis Kelce did not score a touchdown. They will win again this week if Tiger doesn’t come up big at Riviera.

Believe it or not, there are some other golfers in action this week too, and they are taking action in the First Round Leader market.

“Sam Burns leads the way with nearly 9% of the tickets being written on him to lead after Round 1 on Thursday,” said O’Dell. “Emiliano Grillo is second in ticket count (5.8%), followed by Cameron Young (5.0%), Beau Hossler (4.6%) and Adam Svensson (4.4%).”

Davis is also seeing support for Tony Finau for First Round Leader at Mandalay Bay at +3300.

Burns has been playing excellent golf for the last few weeks, recording three straight top-10 finishes. He is 18th on TOUR in Round 1 Scoring Average and Grillo ranks 28th. Finau is 13th on TOUR in Birdie Average while Hossler ranks 53rd. Svensson is 63rd in Bogey Avoidance and Young is 42nd.

The Top Nationality markets are seeing action this week as well. O’Dell went over the leaders in ticket count and this is another area in which we are not seeing Tiger’s name.

“The top five in tickets for Top American are Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Thomas, Max Homa and Jordan Spieth," O’Dell noted. “Adam Scott leads in tickets for Top Australian, Ludvig Åberg for Top European and Si Woo Kim for Top Asian.”

For the Full Tournament Head to Head Matchups, Davis at Mandalay Bay said: “Our most heavily bet tournament matchup is Matt Fitzpatrick to beat Tom Kim at -130.”

This will be Fitzpatrick’s fourth time playing The Genesis Invitational. He has finished 30th, fifth and missed the cut last season. Kim has only played here once before, finishing 45th last year.

Finally, to illustrate our notion that this golf tournament ought to see an uptick in handle for many reasons, O’Dell pointed out that they have too seen unexpected action on one prop that is a little bit obscure: anyone in the field to make an albatross, priced at +1800.

Heroics and fireworks indeed. We’ll see. This is one of the more challenging golf courses on the entire TOUR schedule. For a point of reference, the winning score prop was set at UNDER/OVER 15.5 under par. Of his 82 official PGA TOUR wins, Woods has notably never won at Riviera.

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