Odds Outlook: Tiger Woods a triple-digit longshot as playing host at The Genesis Invitational

Blocks from the Hollywood Walk of Fame, the best and brightest stars from the PGA TOUR will shine at The Riviera Country Club for The Genesis Invitational.

Hosted by Tiger Woods, the third of eight Signature Events on the calendar for 2024 wraps up the West Coast Swing at the famed “Hogan’s Alley” in Pacific Palisades. This week, Woods will reprise the dual role of host and participant, as he’ll make his first official PGA TOUR start since the 2023 Masters.

Oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook aren’t optimistic about his chances to contend – Woods has never won this event before and opened at +10000. Although, given the recent run of longshot winners, maybe the back of the pack is the place to start.

The leading man again this week is world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who opened as a +650 betting favorite with BetMGM. With only 70 players entered in this event, the Texan will look to lift the trophy for the first time in 2024.

Cashing T6 or better in three of four starts to begin 2024, the best tee-to-green player on TOUR from 2023 will look to add to his T12-T7 haul from the last two years.

Off to a flying start in 2024 with a win on the DPWT and a T2 in the desert of the Middle East, Rory McIlroy (+850) turns his attention to business in America. Navigating the winds, rains, and amateurs at Pebble Beach Golf Links two weeks ago for the AT&T Pebble Beach-Pro Am, the No. 2 player in the Official World Golf Ranking looks for his game and the weather to warm up again. Like other generational greats, Jack Nicklaus, and the host this week, Woods, McIlroy has never conquered the George C. Thomas design from 1927. Making his eighth start, he should have the blueprint.

A late scratch last week before the WM Phoenix Open, Viktor Hovland (+1400) enjoyed an extra week of prep to jump-start his 2024 campaign. A quiet T22 in Maui followed a chilly trip to the Monterey Peninsula where he cashed T58. Missing the early morning frost and rounds extending across multiple days at TPC Scottsdale, he should be fresh to add to his two top-five paydays from three starts in Tinsel Town.

Xander Schauffele (+1400) joined Hovland last week on the sidelines after a scuffling T54 at Pebble Beach. The Riviera Country Club provides a test throughout the entire bag. Another week on Poa annua greens will not bother the Californian, nor will the Kikuyu grass rough. Posting only one top 10 from six starts, he’s painted the top 15 four times, never missing the weekend.

California native Collin Morikawa (+1600) enjoys a home game this week. Running T2 here in 2022 at 17-under, the SoCal star followed up with T6 in 2023. The strength of his game is gaining strokes on approach and tee-to-green, and those areas of importance rank highly this week.

The recent form of Justin Thomas (+1800) pushes him into the conversation again this week. Ironing out swing issues has produced more confidence and it’s showing. Cashing T12 or better in his last five starts on TOUR, the two-time major champion will look to add to his haul of three top-10 paydays from six tries at Tiger’s event.

Playing most courses on TOUR for the first time, Ludvig Åberg (+1800) is not only passing the tests, but he’s almost acing them! After a quiet start in Hawaii, the Swedish star didn’t stutter at Torrey Pines (T9) and would have had a chance to win at Pebble Beach (second) if Mother Nature had not intervened. The bright lights of a Woods production, the historical and sometimes quirky Riviera, provide another detailed examination this week.

Max Homa (+1800) has made it no secret that this is his favorite event on his favorite course. After missing the cut last week, the Burbank native will need to sharpen up the bag but will have four rounds to get dialed in. The 2021 champion and 2023 runner-up has cashed in the top 10 in his last four and will be the crowd favorite.

Running third last season, Long Beach native Patrick Cantlay (+1800) will look to improve on his best result from eight starts. Sitting without a top-10 paycheck since the TOUR Championship, the former UCLA man flashed with 64 at Pebble Beach in the first round two weeks ago before settling on T11. His driver is one of his major strengths, and that should play this week.

Sam Burns (+2200) broke his rear-view mirror after The American Express and has continued his excellent start to 2024. The cold, windy weather at Pebble Beach and TPC Scottsdale couldn’t slow him down. Cashing tenth on the Monterey Peninsula, he ran it back last week with T3 in the Sonoran Desert at the WM Phoenix Open, closing with 64, the low round on Sunday. Missing the cut on his last two visits, he rides back into the Santa Monica Canyon in better form than his 2021 visit when he led after 18, 36 and 54 holes before finishing third.

Jordan Spieth (+2500) defies belief that he will be making his 12th start at The Riviera Country Club. Even more difficult to believe is that he’s only posted one top-10 payday from his last six appearances and just two overall.

Here’s a look at the rest of the full-field odds, with the top 50 and ties (plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead) making the 36-hole cut:

• +2800: Tony Finau
• +3300: Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala, Tom Kim
• +3500: Tommy Fleetwood
• +4000: Adam Scott, Jason Day, Will Zalatoris, Wyndham Clark
• +5000: Keegan Bradley, Nicolai Højgaard, Si Woo Kim
• +5500: Hideki Matsuyama, J.T. Poston, Russell Henley, Sungjae Im
• +6600: Corey Conners, Ben An, Denny McCarthy, Eric Cole, Nick Taylor, Harris English
• +8000: Beau Hossler, Cam Davis, Chris Kirk, Kurt Kitayama, Tom Hoge
• +9000: Brian Harman, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Emiliano Grillo, Sepp Straka
• +10000: Adam Hadwin, Brendon Todd, Patrick Rodgers, Rickie Fowler, Taylor Montgomery, Tiger Woods
• +125000: Adam Schenk, Kevin Yu, Luke List, Taylor Moore
• +15000: Adam Svensson, Andrew Putnam, Ben Griffin, Charley Hoffman, Lucas Glover
• +20000: Matt Kuchar, Nick Dunlap, Sam Ryder
• +225000: Nick Hardy
• +25000: Alex Smalley, Gary Woodland, J.J. Spaun, Mackenzie Hughes
• +30000: Lee Hodges, Seamus Power
• +35000: Grayson Murray
• +100000: Chase Johnson

Circle back tomorrow as I post more details in Horses for Courses.

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