“The Gambler” is truly an iconic song made famous by Kenny Rogers, and I’ve been thinking about the renowned lyrics this week as the PGA TOUR hits Las Vegas for the Shriners Children’s Open.

Specifically, I’ve been stuck on the line, “Know when to walk away,” because two of the headlining stars this week have me worried in a betting context: young Swedish superstar Ludvig Åberg and LPGA standout Lexi Thompson.

I, like many of you, am very interested to see how Thompson does in her PGA TOUR debut as a sponsor exemption. The seventh female player to get a start on the TOUR and the first since Brittany Lincicome in 2018, Thompson will undboutedly serve as inspiration to many youngsters with lofty dreams and goals this week. But as awesome as it would be to see Thompson contend -- and there are a few markets out there for you if you think she can -- I can’t see her being in the mix. But there is much more at play here than what Thompson writes on her scorecard.

For the record, BetMGM Sportsbook lists Thompson at +100000 to win at TPC Summerlin, +17500 for a Top 5, +6600 for a Top 10, +3000 for a Top 20 and +750 for a Top 40. Thompson is +900 to make the cut and -5000 to miss. If you think she can get off to a hot start, she sits +30000 as First Round Leader, +5500 to be inside the top five of the opening round and +2500 to be inside the top 10 through 18 holes.

And now for Åberg. At +1200, he is second in the betting lines behind only defending champion Tom Kim (+1100), a position well-deserved after his last month-plus of golf. After a T4 at the Czech Masters in late August on the DP World Tour, he has since claimed the European Masters title, finished T10 at the BMW PGA Championship, been part of a winning Ryder Cup squad and backed that up with a playoff loss last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

All signs point to another great week for the Swede… or do they?

Hear me out. After all – this is Vegas. Where else would you take a chance against the house? While most parties, including oddsmakers, suggest the 23-year-old continues his run, I am leaning towards a fade.

Now, before we get into specifics, let me state for the record that I believe Åberg is one of the next young superstars of this sport. It still astounds me how the production line of talent keeps rolling on, and he has the potential to be a multiple-time TOUR winner over the coming years – even before he turns 25.

But a few scenarios ahead of the Shriners Children’s Open give me pause.

Firstly, despite him being a spritely 23, I have a concern that fatigue may start to play a part. Not so much physical – although winning a Ryder Cup in Italy, celebrating it, flying to Jackson, Mississippi, and then heading to Vegas has to take some physical toll – but more mental.

The mental fatigue of the stress at Marco Simone Golf & Country Club, followed by the mental load needed to contend at Sanderson Farms, has to empty the tank at some point.

But the real reason I hesitated on the phenom this week has to do with the venue.

Over the last decade, TPC Summerlin has routinely seen a higher than TOUR average number of approach shots from 125-150 yards and to a slightly lesser extent 100-125 yards. It’s no coincidence that defending champion Kim sits first on TOUR for Greens in Regulation from 125-150 yards.

Åberg is not formally ranked in PGA TOUR stats as he hasn’t met the minimum number of rounds. But if he was, there is some impressive reading. Like being second in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, second in overall Proximity, sixth in Birdie Average and 14th in SG: Tee-to-Green.

But back to those wedge yardages that will play a pivotal role this week. From 125-150 yards, Åberg’s proximity would rank T76 on TOUR. From 100-125 yards, though, he dips to 170th on TOUR.

If he is unable to dial it in from this range in Vegas, he will need to make some longer putts, and he is still ruing some short putts last week that could have had him celebrating his first win on TOUR.

So, while I’m not prepared to say betting Åberg is akin to snake eyes on the craps table, and I’ll eat the humble pie if he salutes, I am looking elsewhere for my outright options this week.

OUTRIGHTS

As mentioned above, Tom Kim (+1100) leads the PGA TOUR in GIR from 125-150 yards. He’s 27th on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green and has 46 rounds in the 60s this season. The defending champ knows how to go low at TPC Summerlin, winning at 24 under last year.

Another option I like is Andrew Putnam (+4000). He finished T12 and T11 in his last two starts in Vegas, shooting -16 under both times. He sits fourth on TOUR for rounds in the 60s and is fourth on TOUR from 125-150 yards.

PLACE MARKETS

There are a handful of players who have the stats pointing towards a good week.

Top 5, Top 10: One name that sticks out, despite having been away from competitive golf since the FedExCup Playoffs, is Adam Hadwin. The Canadian is +320 for a top 10, something he’s achieved four times in Vegas before, including the last two starts. He sits fifth on TOUR in relation to par from 125-150 yards and sixth in birdie or better percentage from 125-150 yards.

Another option at a higher risk is Aaron Rai. Given he ranks seventh on TOUR in GIR from 125-150 yards, is 24th in SG: Tee-to-Green and has 44 rounds in the 60s, he becomes an option at +700 for a top five. Rai fired a 62 in the third round a year ago before fading on Sunday to a T20.

Top 20: Consider the +138 for a Top 20 on J.T. Poston and Adam Schenk as conservative plays as I won’t be surprised if either wins the tournament. Schenk finished T12 and T3 in his last two Vegas outings and is third on TOUR for rounds in the 60s. Poston delivered a third-round 63 a year ago before a fading 71 left him T20 on Sunday. He’s eighth on TOUR in Birdie or Better from 125-150 yards.

Top 40: Look for players with local ties here who may not be in great form but who have a little extra to play for in front of family and friends and those who aren’t distracted by the city itself. The likes of Taylor Montgomery at +110 fit this mold. T15 a year ago, leads the TOUR in Birdies or Better (Putting) and is fourth on TOUR in Birdies or Better from 125-150 yards.

LONGSHOTS

If you are hoping to cash in from further down the betting boards, I’ve got my eye on a pair of South Africans in the middle of trying to turn their careers back to the positive.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5000) and Erik van Rooyen (+9000) are better players than their odds suggest, and they know their campaign for a Presidents Cup berth has to begin soon.

Bezuidenhout was T20 in Vegas a year ago and is 21st on TOUR in Birdies or Better from 125-150 yards, while van Rooyen’s last four starts worldwide have all been inside the top 30.

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