DFS Dish: Embrace some variance with lineups for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

Tournament Preview (David Barnett)

With just six weeks left to make the FedExCup Playoffs, plenty of PGA TOUR grinders are giving Detroit Golf Club their full attention for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. We’ve got several big names on-site in Detroit, but it’s the rest of the field that DFS players will be trying to make sense of as the season’s end is in sight.

With five of the world’s top 20 in the field, assembling a DFS lineup that you’re relatively comfortable with can be a challenge. However, we love weeks like this on DraftKings. It gives us a chance to dive deep. Typically, it means less chalk in the lower ranges as it becomes difficult to differentiate between players.

In four years, Detroit Golf Club has produced an eclectic leaderboard. Sure…bombers have certainly been the majority, but plenty of shorter players litter the top 20 every year. With a projected score reaching the mid 20s under par, we know that leads to variance. Nate Lashley and Cam Davis both won here with outright prices well into the triple digits. J.J. Spaun, Troy Merritt and Chris Kirk all have strong records here despite being shorter off the tee.

Embrace the variance this week for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Don’t be afraid to feel some discomfort when you’re assembling your six-man rosters in DFS. We’ll likely be overweight (usually at least double the projected ownership) on a couple of really strong players in the $10K and $9K range. From there, we’ll look to sprinkle a number of players in the pool from the rest of the board while fading just about any cheap chalk.

The perfect lineup for last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic would’ve included three names from the $6K range and left $700 in salary on the table. Get weird. Embrace the variance. Enjoy the DFS puzzle.

Picks (Pat Perry & Ben Little)

So, get weird, you say? Well, don’t mind if we do! Let’s start at the top with a somewhat “safe” play with plenty of winning upside potential. Hideki Matsuyama hasn’t been spectacular by any means this PGA TOUR season. However, he has made 17 of 19 cuts with eight top-25 finishes. Since the start of this event at Detroit Golf Club in 2019, Matsuyama has played here three times with a withdrawal due to illness in 2021, a T21, and a T13. Matsuyama’s ball striking is hardly ever in doubt. But- whenever he’s had a slightly hot putter matched with his ball striking – he’s usually found himself in contention to win.

Now that we have the safe play out of the way, let’s get the stomach churning a little with Aaron Rai. Rai has played quite well recently with three top-25 finishes in his last three PGA TOUR starts. The strength of his game is very similar to Matsuyama’s in that he’s one of the top players in the field in Scoring, Strokes Gained Approach, and Ball Striking. And you guessed it…not too good with the putter. But take heart, a positive putting trend could be developing as he’s gained strokes putting in his last two starts. The price on DraftKings ($7,800) feels just about right and allows plenty of room to puzzle together a solid lineup.

What if we told you Byeong-Hun An was one of the best values in the field? Dating back to the Valero Texas Open, An has gained more than one stroke per round off the tee, half a stroke on approach per round, and a quarter of a stroke around the greens per round. In fact, in his last four events, he has gained strokes in every tee-to-green category. Yes, the putter is still an issue with An, but he’s been trending in the right direction. If he can break even on the greens, he’s a player with legitimate winning upside.

A lot of the ownership is going to gravitate towards five of the highest-priced players on DraftKings this week. A great way to differentiate your lineups is being really overweight versus the field in the $8K range. The $8K range will largely get skipped due to top-end plus bottom-end lineup builds. Our favorite $8K play this week is Ludvig Aberg. He absolutely destroyed college golf this season with four wins in his final six events.

The Rocket Mortgage Classic will be his third start on the PGA TOUR in the month of June. He is already one of the best drivers of the ball on the PGA TOUR, gaining six strokes off the tee in Canada and five strokes off the tee at the Travelers Championship. Aberg’s short game is solid, and if he puts it all together over four rounds, we could see him winning Sunday evening. He’s not going under the DFS radar by any means, but we think he’s worth going overweight given the potential.