Odds Outlook: Hatton highlights top choices at the Valero Texas Open

The PGA TOUR stays in Texas this week at TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. The folks commuting from Austin in the field this week will be back to playing the golf course, not their opponent. The rest of the field, some of whom enjoyed the breezes of the Dominican Republic, or a week off after Florida, will need to be ready for more wind in the Hill Country just outside San Antonio.

Here's a look at how the opening odds are shaking up, headlined by an Englishman coming off a run of recent close calls (all odds via BetMGM Sportsbook):

Tyrrell Hatton (+1200) couldn't match his fantastic run of stroke play last week, as he didn't win any of his three matches. Holding his right wrist on the practice range before his first match Wednesday was an ominous sign, but he did show up and play all three days. The Englishman arrives for the first time at TPC San Antonio to take on Greg Norman's ball-striking challenge on fantastic stroke-play form. His majestic 65 to close Sunday at THE PLAYERS for solo second was his third top-six finish in his last four outings, including T4 at a very difficult and windy Bay Hill.

Dissecting the field of 144 the week before a major is always tricky. Corey Conners (+2000) is second choice but doesn't have a top-10 payday in the 2023 portion of the season from seven starts. The Canadian is a previous winner here as he picked up the trophy in 2019, but wasn't in the field the Monday morning of tournament week. He won the qualifier and then went on to set the tournament scoring record (20 under) to become the first Monday qualifying champion since 2010. He's never missed the cut here in four starts and T35 last year was the "worst" of his four visits.

For the fourth consecutive tournament edition, Rickie Fowler (+2000) is teeing it up at TPC San Antonio and the Oaks Course. For the third consecutive season he'll be looking to force his way into Augusta National at the last minute. Not qualified in the OWGR top 50 after WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, Fowler's task is laser-focused this week, again: win and you're in. The previous two chances fell short, with MC in 2022 and T17 in 2021, matching his 2019 finish for the best from three visits. He's cashed in seven straight on TOUR but T10 at WM Phoenix Open is the best of the bunch.

The first 2023 winner on the board this week is Sony champion Si Woo Kim (+2200). The South Korean has made eight starts in 2023 and six have cashed T27 or better. He quietly sits inside the top 25 in SG: Total and SG: Tee to Green. Rattling off five consecutive paydays on the 7,430 yard, par-72 layout, four of those have cashed T23 or better. Almost joined a very exclusive list of wire-to-wire champs in 2019 but couldn't close out on Sunday and cashed T4.

Starting 2023 with solo third (Sony), T3 (AMEX) and winning Honda in his first four starts, it's hardly a surprise to find Chris Kirk (+2500) as one of the favorites. Making his ninth start at Valero, Kirk has navigated the annual tough ball-striking conditions with top 10 paydays in half of his six weekends. Of his last 14 rounds on the Oaks Course 12 are par or better.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) conceded his final group match last week, citing a sore neck, and did not advance. The former Masters champion withdrew from this event last year citing a sore neck. When he's healthy, he's racking up big finishes as he cashed T5 at TPC Sawgrass and tamed Torrey Pines South for T9. This is his third consecutive season using this event has his Masters tune-up.

J.J. Spaun (+3300) earned his first TOUR win at this event last year, and he’s back to defend his title after a surprise run to the Round of 16 last week at Austin Country Club.

Here’s a look at the rest of the field, with many of the below names hoping to earn an 11th-hour Masters invite by slipping into a pair of new boots Sunday afternoon:

+2800: Davis Riley, Taylor Montgomery

+3300: Matt Kuchar

+4000: Aaron Rai, Cam Davis, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Matt Wallace, Ryan Fox

+4500: Alex Noren, Brendon Todd

+5000: Adam Schenk, Ben Griffin, Nick Taylor, Nicolai Hojgaard, Thomas Detry

+5500: Andrew Putnam

+6600: Brandon Wu

+6600: Taylor Pendrith, Alex Smalley, Beau Hossler, Ben Martin, Davis Thompson, Sam Ryder

+8000: Austin Eckroat, Byeong Hun An, Emiliano Grillo, Francesco Molinari, Hayden Buckley, Joseph Bramlett, Kevin Streelman, Patton Kizzire, Robby Shelton, Sepp Straka, Tyler Duncan, Will Gordon

+9000: Charley Hoffman, David Lingmerth, Erik van Rooyen, Garrick Higgo, Lucas Glover, Luke List, Nick Hardy, Sam Stevens,

The pressure of "win and get in" has brought four first-time victors in the last five events here. The par-72 layout provides one of the toughest quartets of par-5 holes, and hitting fairways and greens isn't routine. The purse of $8.9 million comes with 500 FedExCup Points, $1.602 million and a trip down Magnolia Lane next week if not otherwise exempt.

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