Oddsmakers prepare for onslaught of action on Woods at Genesis

If you watched any of the action last week at the WM Phoenix Open, you’re going to see some familiar faces at this week’s Genesis Invitational.

Tournament winner and new world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler made the short trek from TPC Scottsdale to The Riviera Country Club. So, too, did Rory McIlroy, the man he supplanted atop the Official World Golf Rankings. Jon Rahm, still leading the FedExCup standings, will play both as well.

There is, of course, one notable addition to this week’s field.

Tournament host Tiger Woods will pull double duty outside Los Angeles, teeing it up for the first time since 2020 in the tournament where he made his PGA TOUR debut as a 16-year-old amateur in 1992. It’s a return to action that turned heads among his peers in Phoenix, and it’s an add to a schedule that has become increasingly sparse. This week marks Woods’ first official TOUR start since The Open in July, and it’s his first start in a non-major since the 2020 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.

Woods will attract plenty of fanfare from those on-site at Riviera, and oddsmakers know that he’ll receive an equally outsized amount of attention this week from bettors.

Woods will face a tall task to return to the winner’s circle against a stacked field – and break the TOUR’s all-time wins mark in the process – and he’s priced accordingly in the outright markets. Oddsmakers at BetMGM have listed Woods at +15000 (150/1) to win this week, the same odds as Joel Dahmen, Kurt Kitayama and Matt Kuchar among others. It’s a far cry from his position in 2020, his most recent Genesis start, when he was priced among the tournament favorites and just months removed from winning the 2019 ZOZO Championship. After teeing off at +2000, Woods went on to finish 68th.

“Over the years, his price has had the ‘Tiger element,’” explained a spokesperson for the BetMGM trading team. “This time around, we are seeing odds on him to win that we’re not accustomed to at 150/1. But the fact is that he is much older, this is his first time up after a long spell through injury, and more so than anything, there are simply more and more better golfers on TOUR.”

Most of those better golfers are in the field this week, with another $20 million purse up for grabs in one of the TOUR’s elevated events. But the folks at BetMGM fully anticipate crowds to line up to bet on Woods at the currently eye-catching prices, despite the factors working against him.

“Whenever Tiger plays, now and in the recent past, he is going to attract betting attention,” the spokesperson said. “Anything above a three-figure price is likely to attract a lot more this week, because it’s tough to bet against the GOAT at that price. So we will be expecting him to at least be a liability at the start of the tournament.”

Of course, there will be other types of action on Woods this week beyond the outright market. One such option that is expected to draw plenty of action is the Make/Miss Cut market. With the field currently sitting at 131 players as of Monday and only the top 65 and ties making the weekend, Woods will have to play well to play all 72 holes – and he’s priced accordingly. BetMGM opened wagering at +150 (bet $100 to win $150) on him to make the cut and -200 (bet $200 to win $100) to miss. But don’t be surprised if those numbers shift significantly in the coming days as fans and handicappers alike line up behind a plus-money price on Woods to make the cut – which he has done in all but one start here as a pro.

“Tiger will know that if he makes it to Saturday, then that’s a massive achievement in itself,” said the spokesperson. “Bettors will recognize that, too, and get behind him. I think we will have a lot of liability on him to make the cut come Thursday morning.”

A Woods win would be historic for another reason – this is the TOUR event he has played more than any without ever winning. In 14 prior attempts he has a pair of runner-up results, including the 1998 edition played at nearby Valencia Country Club, but he hasn’t cracked the top 10 since a T7 finish in 2004. Still, oddsmakers know that the tantalizing pre-tournament price on the 15-time major champ will evaporate in a hurry in the in-play market if he flashes any sort of positive form once the ball goes in the air.

“If they see him birdie the first hole even,” the BetMGM spokesperson explained, “the bettors will start to believe.”

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