Draws and Fades: Backing Ryo Hisatsune, Scottie Scheffler on Sunday at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

After the third round of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, Si Woo Kim (+110) has come back down to earth after Friday’s 59 watch ended with a 60. It was in large part because Kim’s putter cooled off in the third round. After catching fire Friday, he gained just 0.19 strokes putting (via DataGolf) Saturday and settled for a 3-under 68. The lead that was once five shots has now been trimmed to two, with two PGA TOUR winners sitting right behind him: world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+135) and major champion Wyndham Clark (+700).

Both Scheffler and Clark fired 6-under 65s to apply pressure, but it will be Scheffler who joins Kim in the final pairing. Scheffler and Clark both made par on the 18th, but because Scheffler teed off first, he gets the spot alongside Kim, his good buddy and fellow Dallas resident.

Scoring was still low in the third round, with the field averaging 68.69. That was slightly higher than Friday’s scoring average of 68.16, but the afternoon wave did most of the damage. The morning wave averaged 68.38, while the afternoon wave averaged 67.94.

Of course, preferred lies were in effect for Round 3, and that made an already gettable TPC Craig Ranch play even easier. When players can lift, clean and place in the fairway on a course that already gives up a ton of birdies, low scores are out there. Scheffler was one of the players who took full advantage, and now he has one more round to chase down Kim.

Live card check-in

Let’s take a moment to check in on the live card through the first three rounds.

Unfortunately, Michael Thorbjornsen will not finish in the top 10. He missed the cut, which makes it pretty difficult to place any higher.

Sam Ryder’s +450 top-20 ticket is still very much alive. Ryder fired a 6-under 65 in the second round and followed it up with a 3-under 68 in the third. He is currently T22, and I’d imagine a round of 4 under or better on Sunday should move him inside the top 20 and cash that ticket.

Blades Brown had himself a big third round. His +140 top-20 ticket probably has the best chance of cashing out of all our live tickets. He is currently T12, and his 6-under 65 catapulted him 26 spots up the leaderboard. It’s not just us rooting for Brown to finish inside the top 20. Much of the golf world is, too, as the young phenom needs a solo 21st or better to earn Special Temporary Membership on TOUR for the rest of the season.

Pierceson Coody fell down the leaderboard slightly with a pedestrian 2-under 69. He is now T29, two strokes outside the top 20. His ticket might be the most interesting placement of the bunch because he is capable of ripping off a 7-under or 8-under round, but he is also capable of going out there and being really flat. It will come down to whether his irons cooperate on Sunday.

My favorite live bet is Scheffler to finish as the par-5 scoring winner. He has now flipped to the favorite at -126 and is tied with Chris Kirk, who had a decent round but only played the three par 5s in 2 under. Tom Hoge is the golfer we need to worry about a little as he creeps closer to Scheffler, but I’d imagine if Scheffler plays the three par 5s in 3 under or better Sunday, he wins this market and we cash a +250 ticket.

Who closes at TPC Craig Ranch?

As we mentioned earlier, Kim has a two-stroke lead over Scheffler and Clark, and a four-stroke lead over the three golfers behind them. The odds suggest this is likely coming down to one of those three at the top. Of the golfers sitting four shots back or more, Sungjae Im (+2700) has the best chance to win according to the sportsbook odds.

But as we’ve seen so many times this season, a two-shot 54-hole lead on the PGA TOUR means almost nothing. That is especially true at a course where players are making birdies in bunches. This lead could evaporate quickly, so let’s look at which of the three golfers I’d back to win this tournament, and whether there is a higher price that caught my attention.

You’d have to imagine this tournament is Kim’s to lose. He’s one of the leaders in the field from tee to green, and his approach play has been solid. His putter has also cooperated for most of the week, as he has gained 1.86 strokes putting through three rounds.

But the third round felt closer to what we should expect from Kim. Really good ball striking, but the putter cooled off a little bit. That has plagued him throughout the season. He ranks 64th in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 36 rounds, which is the only major strokes-gained metric where he is not inside the top eight.

If he goes out Sunday and gains one, maybe 1.5 strokes putting, he is probably going to win this tournament. But if he is flat with the putter and fires another 68, someone is going to catch him. The question is who that someone will be.

From a betting perspective, if I had unlimited money and just wanted to root for the golfer I trust the most, I would back Scheffler to win this tournament. This is the second time this season Scheffler has played three rounds with the same golfer. Unfortunately for him, the last time it happened was the RBC Heritage, where Matt Fitzpatrick hit one of the best long irons you’ll ever see in a playoff to shut down Scheffler’s comeback attempt.

I’m not sure Scheffler is going to be up against that same kind of unshakeable force this time. That’s not me saying Fitzpatrick is better or worse than Kim, but from the mental side of the game and what we’ve seen from both players in the final group, it feels like Kim can get shaken a little more often when elite players start applying pressure.

Kim and Scheffler are buddies and frequently play together in Dallas, but there is also a sense that Kim understands just how different Scheffler’s level is. Earlier this season, Kim said in a TikTok video that playing with Scheffler sometimes makes him feel like he isn’t on the PGA TOUR because of the level Scheffler brings. He said it is always fun to play with him, but you have to imagine that intimidation factor can creep into the back of his mind.

Even earlier this season at The American Express, Scheffler and Kim were in the final group, and Scheffler took him down to win his 20th PGA TOUR title. After the win, Kim congratulated him by saying, “Congrats Scheffler on your 20th win. You’re better than AI, Siri and ChatGPT.”

So naturally, I think Scheffler is going to win. Does Wyndham Clark have a chance? Of course he does. At +700, how do you not consider a small wager on Clark to win this golf tournament? He is leading the field in putting, having gained +2.71 strokes on the greens, and his approach play still has not been that great. If he finds an approach round where he gains two strokes and brings the same flatstick, he could absolutely walk away with this.

He also does not have the pressure of playing with Scheffler in the final group.

But again, I want to be clear: I think Scheffler wins this golf tournament. He has finished runner-up too many times in succession this season for me not to believe the breakthrough is coming. It has also been one of the longest winning droughts he has had since he claimed the No. 1 ranking in the Official World Golf Ranking.

Ryo Hisatsune, Top Japanese (-140)

I couldn’t make you read all these words without some kind of action for the final round. I’m going to give you a little bit of chalk, but it is a bet that just feels right. I’m backing Ryo Hisatsune to finish as the top Japanese player over Kensei Hirata at -140.

From a macro standpoint, I think Hisatsune is clearly the better golfer than Hirata. But even if we focus only on this tournament, I thought what Hirata was doing early in the week seemed slightly unsustainable.

He opened with a 7-under 64 while barely gaining strokes on approach and barely gaining strokes on the greens. He followed that with a 6-under 65, and while his approach numbers improved to +1.80, he lost 0.69 strokes putting. He was the only golfer inside the bunch at T4 or better through two rounds who lost strokes putting. In fact, he was the only one who didn’t gain at least half a stroke putting through two rounds.

In the third round, Hirata finally started to slide. His tee-to-green numbers were poor, and he lost 1.31 strokes to the field while shooting just a 1-under 70. It felt like regression was coming.

On the other side, Hisatsune dominated in Round 3. He fired a 6-under 65 while gaining 2.45 strokes putting and 1.56 strokes on approach. He gained 3.69 strokes to the field overall, which was tied for second-best on the day.

Ultimately, this becomes a bet on which of the two golfers I believe is better at a very palatable price. Hirata has a one-stroke lead, so Hisatsune needs to beat him by at least one shot for us to get our money back. To win the bet, he needs to beat him by two strokes or more.

I think that is absolutely in play, and I’m more than happy to put my money there.