Sleeper Picks: John Deere Classic

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Top 20

Max Homa (+260) ... When a guy who has achieved some things goes on an extended slide, you might as well just leave him alone until the markets catch up. For one, because he’s misfiring, he’s going to be less likely to fulfill your lottery ticket for a rebound; for another, even if he does, because of his cachet and bloated juice that it attracts, the value associated with it isn’t comparable to sharper and more lucrative considerations in the same vicinity and longer. At the John Deere Classic, locking in these odds for this finish is fair because the market has caught up. At the same time, he’s fresh off a T22-T20 burst for his first consecutive top 25s since last fall, and he finished T5 at TPC Deere Run last year after both a six-edition hiatus and similarly lackluster form upon arrival.

Top 30

A.J. Ewart (+265) ... Ben Kohles (+190) was my first target in this market, but it’s diluted to the point that you’re not getting even double the kickback, so a pivot was needed toward someone for whom this market was as viable. The thing is, Ewart deserves to be even shorter as he just paid off this bet at +280 in this space with a T29 at the RBC Canadian Open. All but two of the rookie’s 11 cuts made in 15 starts this season are top-30 finishes, including all of his last nine. In that context, it’s a make-the-cut wager with odds heavily in your favor. He’s inside the top 35 on the PGA TOUR in – deep breath – greens hit, proximity to the hole, Strokes Gained: Putting, conversion percentage inside 10 feet, scrambling and bogey avoidance. Making his tournament debut, but that’s been his theme all season, and we’re not asking him to win.

Top 40

Zach Johnson (+200) ... Time waits for no one, but it can be bent, at least relative to the endeavor. Once having shared one-and-done responsibilities at TPC Deere Run with Steve Stricker over the years, it’s wild that DraftKings will return twice your investment in this market. Of course, Johnson now is 50 years of age and hasn’t contended since a T5 in 2017, but he’s cashed in all of the last 17 editions and all but thrice for a top 40. Currently second in Charles Schwab Cup earnings on the PGA TOUR Champions with two wins and no worse than a T8 in eight starts, it’s also impressive that he’s in the field of the John Deere on his number, so he’s still officially straddling the big leagues and the senior circuit. Sure, neither of his PGA TOUR paydays this year would’ve paid off this bet, but when in the Quad Cities, it’s fun to turn back time and see if he can turn back the clock himself.

Odds were sourced at DraftKings.

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