Sleeper Picks: Genesis Scottish Open

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Top 10

Corey Conners (+710) ... This almost seems too simple, because it never is. Take, for example, the fact that the only missed cut in his last 14 starts was at his national championship – the RBC Canadian Open – but he’s 62nd in the FedExCup despite just one top 10. The upshot is that it was in his last start at the Travelers Championship where he surged to the tape with a closing 63, all the while displaying his patented tee-to-green brilliance throughout the tournament. Now he’s rested for the Genesis Scottish Open. That he’s scuffled relative to lofty expectations, especially in his prime at 34 years of age, impacts his odds, but bettors never gripe about that for a guy whose class is permanent. He’s also 4-for-4 at The Renaissance Club with a T10 in 2024.

Top 20

Matti Schmid (+530) ... If you’re going to bet on the 28-year-old from Germany, you might as well reach because, while he’s connected for only four top-35 finishes on the PGA TOUR this season, all were top 10s. The most recent was a sparkling T4 at the PGA Championship. Now he’s fresh off a T23 at the BMW International Open in his homeland that had to help recharge the batteries after an 0-for-3 skid over here. In his second appearance at The Renaissance Club last year, he delivered a T17 despite gradually increasing scores culminating in a 1-over 71 in the finale. He’s profiled as a streaky talent, but that’s now contributing to converging trends.

Top 30

Aldrich Potgieter (+270) ... There’s something to be said about the longest hitter on the PGA TOUR getting another crack at The Renaissance Club. He missed the cut in his debut last year, but he did a lot of that and still was voted the Rookie of the Year for the whole of a fruitful foray. Now in better physical shape and still just 21 years of age, the South African has already matched last season’s total of eight cuts made. That includes a recent string of five in a row that featured one top 10 and two top 25s, both of the latter in Signature Events. Particularly impressive is how he takes hold in the third and fourth rounds. He’s inside the top 30 in scoring average of both this season. So, if you don’t fancy these pre-tournament odds, take another peek when the cut falls and the market reopens before the third round.

Top 40

Kota Kaneko (+395) ... Talk about tasty. The 23-year-old from Japan is making it look easy as a rookie on the DP World Tour this year. He’s already a winner (at the Austrian Alpine Open at the end of May) and sits 14th in the Race to Dubai. He’ll likely never win a long-drive contest, but his accuracy off the tee allows his better-than-average irons and stronger putting carry a ranking of ninth in scoring average on the circuit. This also is not out of nowhere. With two victories and five T3s in his homeland last year, he paced the Japan Golf Tour in earnings. At 105th in the Official World Golf Ranking, he’s currently behind only Hideki Matsuyama (30th) and Ryo Hisatsune (60th) among his fellow countrymen in that formula.

Odds were sourced at DraftKings.

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