Horses for Courses: Accuracy, ball-striking key factors at demanding TPC Southwind
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Bubble players and storylines to watch at FedEx St. Jude Championship
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Shoutout to Michael Brennan (+4500) for punching his ticket to the FedExCup Playoffs by winning last week’s Wyndham Championship in dominating fashion, closing with a 6-under final round.
Unfortunately for Brennan, there are no days off. He heads straight to Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
That’s right, we made it. We have officially entered FedExCup Playoffs season, where it’s do-or-die from here on out.
The top 70 players in the FedExCup standings qualified for Memphis, and that number will be cut to 50 for next week’s BMW Championship. There are plenty of players near the top of the standings who don’t have much to worry about when it comes to advancing, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see some high-level golf.
Everyone wants to win a FedExCup Playoffs event, and, more importantly, to put themselves in the best possible position to eventually make it to East Lake.
Add that we have a really great venue for this event. TPC Southwind should provide a fascinating event and a great test for the field.
The par-70, 7,288-yard course isn’t overly long, but this is a TPC-style parkland course with a high missed-fairway penalty, small greens and plenty of water. Golfers can’t just hit and hope here. There is a real emphasis on finding fairways.
That puts a premium on ball-striking, but it also gives us a chance to really hone in on specific approach buckets.
Scottie Scheffler on lessons learned from past starts at TPC Southwind
More than 55% of approach shots at TPC Southwind come from 100 to 175 yards, with the largest percentage coming from 100 to 150. So, while I want good overall ball strikers, I really want golfers who are dangerous with a wedge in their hands.
This is a classic driver-wedge golf course, but don’t confuse that with bomb-and-gouge. As stated, you can’t just hit driver anywhere. The missed-fairway penalty is significant enough that players will prioritize position and accept a slightly longer approach rather than blasting it as far as possible and hoping to hack it out of the rough.
Here’s a look at the best golfers from 100-150 yards over their last 24 rounds. (Data via Betsperts Golf)
Approach Proximity: 100-150 yards (Last 24 rounds, Data via Betsperts Golf)
The next most common approach range at TPC Southwind is 150 to 175 yards, accounting for roughly 19.5% of all approach shots.
Approach Proximity: 150-175 yards (Last 24 rounds, Data via RickRunGood.com)
Viktor Hovland to win (+4000) | Top 20 (+102), ties included
There’s one name that keeps showing up on these approach lists: Viktor Hovland.
He ranks first from 100 to 150 yards and second from 150 to 175 over his last 24 rounds, which is exactly why he should be dangerous at TPC Southwind.
It’s been an up-and-down season for Hovland. He started the year with a T10 at the WM Phoenix Open before sputtering in his next two starts. There was some promise with back-to-back top-13 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship, but his driver started to fail him, and he wasn’t able to recover, eventually missing the cut at the Valspar Championship with some pretty ugly golf in that stretch.
Fast forward to June, and things started looking much better. Hovland finished third at the RBC Canadian Open and then won the Travelers Championship.
He hasn’t played a ton this season, but the biggest thing for me is that the irons are back. Since the middle of May, Hovland has gained strokes on approach in every start, including at The Open Championship, where he missed the cut.
Yes, the driver is still the main concern. Losing 1.9 strokes off the tee at The Open wasn’t great. But in his previous two starts, he was excellent, finishing first and T13.
Hovland also has a strong history at TPC Southwind, and even when other parts of his game have come and gone, he has generally putted well here. That putting can help cover up some of the issues he has historically had around the green.
Viktor Hovland sinks 30-foot birdie putt on No. 12 at Genesis Scottish Open
Hovland is probably going to be a volatile golfer for most of his career. That’s part of the deal. But the upside of getting him at +4000 in a 70-player field feels really generous, especially with how well he is hitting his irons coming into Memphis.
Yes, I like Hovland this week, and I really love the way the numbers set up for him. But I also wanted to take a broader look at Strokes Gained: Ball-striking (Off-the-Tee plus Approach).
I’ve always used ball striking as an important deciding factor at TPC courses, and that won’t change this week. Putting obviously matters if you’re going to win a golf tournament, but TPC Southwind isn’t a place where you absolutely have to roll in everything you look at.
That brings me right back to the ball strikers.
Here are the golfers who have gained the most strokes ball-striking over the last 36 rounds:
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (Last 36 rounds, Data via Betsperts Golf)
- Scottie Scheffler
- Rory McIlroy
- Jackson Koivun
- Ludvig Aberg
- Alex Fitzpatrick
- Tom Kim
Jackson Koivun, First Round Leader (+4500)
There are probably safer ways to play Jackson Koivun (+4000) this week. He has played a ton of golf recently, winning the 3M Open, then had to turn around and play the following week just to get himself into this field. There really haven’t been many off days since accomplishing the biggest goal of his young career.
But there are a couple of things I really like here.
First, Koivun isn’t like many PGA TOUR rookies. This kid has serious game. There’s a reason he ranks inside the top five in SG: Ball-Striking over this stretch. He hits a ton of fairways, and he’s dynamite with his irons.
What we saw from him at the 3M Open was something we hadn’t really seen from Koivun at the PGA TOUR level yet, but we saw it plenty during his college career. He can get scorching hot and go insanely low.
Jackson Koivun claims first PGA TOUR win at 3M Open
That’s what draws me to the first-round leader price.
We know he’s going to hit fairways. We know he’s going to give himself plenty of looks. The question is whether the irons are dialed in enough to start stuffing approach shots. At +4500, that’s the chance I’m willing to take.
It also helps that Koivun has the first tee time of the day and will play as a single. He gets to set his own pace. There’s no worrying about what anyone else in the field is doing, no standing around on tee boxes and very little disruption to his rhythm. He can just get out there, free flow and play golf.
If you don’t want to take the full first-round leader swing, I’d also look at Koivun in the first-round placement markets. I think he’s set up for a really strong opening round at TPC Southwind.
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