Odds Outlook: Ludvig Åberg favored by oddsmakers as TOUR returns to Colonial

The second of two consecutive weeks in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex features the 80th Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. Last week, Wyndham Clark blew the field away at TPC Craig Ranch for his third career victory, but it is former Texas Tech Red Raider Ludvig Åberg who reigns as the top choice at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Searching for his first victory of 2026, Åberg (+1000) is the man to beat in Fort Worth according to oddsmakers. Colonial Country Club, a demanding par 70, stresses the ability of the players to shape the ball both ways off the tees and into the greens. The Swede is the man for the job. He ranks third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and sits sixth in SG: Approach. If gusty conditions are on the menu, remember he played four years of college golf in Lubbock. Ball-strikers will flourish in tight driving corridors and when attacking below-average green sizes. Åberg’s only tournament experience on this track came when he played at Texas Tech. He finished in the top 10 twice.

Ryder Cup player and five-time TOUR winner Russell Henley (+1800) sits as the second choice. A former winner in Houston in 2017, Henley’s previous victory was in the spring of 2025 at a very demanding Bay Hill Club and Lodge layout. Leading the TOUR in Driving Accuracy, playing from the middle of the fairway, and avoiding the Bermuda rough is the first step to hitting Greens in Regulation. If his irons are not firing, Henley also leads the TOUR in Scrambling, another excellent trait to possess on a course where par is a solid score. Over the last four years, only three players total have produced a 72-hole score of 10-under par or better. Of those three players, two of them won the tournament.

Reigning champion Ben Griffin (+2200) highlights a quartet of players lurking behind the two favorites. Griffin, who earned his second career victory by one shot over Matti Schmid, became the second consecutive champion with a prior win at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He was also the seventh consecutive winner at Colonial to rank in the top eight in SG: Putting. With three wins in calendar 2025, he arrives for his second of three title defenses this year. At the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, he shared 10th and followed the next week at the Cadillac Championship with solo third, his only two top-10 results of the season. Last year, he earned T8 at the PGA Championship. This year, he collected a T14.

Justin Thomas (+2200), the winner at the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills in Tulsa, Oklahoma, should feel comfortable on his return to Fort Worth. Both courses are original Perry Maxwell designs, and both have been recently renovated by Gil Hanse. Thomas, making just his fourth start at Colonial, earned T10 on debut in 2020, but missed the cut the week after his 2022 victory at Southern Hills. Before arriving in Fort Worth, he posted 65 at Aronimink and briefly shared the clubhouse lead on Sunday before he cashed T4 at the 2026 PGA Championship, his second top-10 payday of the season. One of the best wedge players on the planet should thrive in “Hogan’s Alley.” His last victory, his 16th on TOUR, was at the 2025 RBC Heritage, another track where navigating the golf ball tee to green is required.

Robert MacIntyre (+2200) and Rickie Fowler (+2200) also offer value. The Scotsman, who earned T6 money at the 2025 event, which included a 64 in blustery conditions on Saturday, is 22 months off his last victory, the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open. After registering solo fourth at THE PLAYERS Championship, MacIntyre shared second at the Valero Texas Open. He missed the cut in two of his last four, and his best finish in that stretch is T42. Fowler, recently a winner in 2023, was on a heater of three consecutive top-10 paydays before a final round 75 at Aronimink stopped the momentum. A tough Sunday round at a major championship should not throw gamers off his scent. Like MacIntyre, he’s a tremendous putter, and that is a key to success this week.

Former champions in the field include:

• 2024: Davis Riley (+25000)
• 2022: Emiliano Grillo (+10000)
• 2017: Kevin Kisner (+100000)
• 2015: Chris Kirk (+8000)

Here's a look at the odds for other notable players, with odds via FanDuel:

• +3000: J.J. Spaun, Hideki Matsuyama
• +3300: Keegan Bradley, Akshay Bhatia
• +3500: Keith Mitchell
• +4000: Alex Smalley, Harry Hall, Gary Woodland, Pierceson Coody
• +4500: Bud Cauley, Ryo Hisatsune, Michael Thorbjorsen, Sungjae Im
• +5500: Max Greyserman, Mac Meissner, Sam Stevens, Sahith Theegala, Davis Thompson
• +6500: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Rico Hoey, Sudarshan Yellamaraju, J.T. Poston, Tony Finau, Matt McCarty, Brian Harman, Stephan Jaeger, Ryan Gerard, Rasmus Højgaard
• +7000: Andrew Novak, Jordan Smith, Taylor Moore
• +8000: Patrick Rodgers, Thorbjorn Olesen, Michael Brennan, Haotong Li

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