The 2026 PGA TOUR Season kicks off at Waialae Country Club for the Sony Open. Waialae is predictable in its unpredictability, and there are three main reasons why chaos reigns supreme in Honolulu.

Firstly, the opening of the season assembles golfers from all over the world, many of whom haven't played competitive golf in months. They will be rusty and often trying out new equipment as they knock the rust off their games. Next, the scoring can be rather unpredictable and dependent on Mother Nature. Waialae is exposed to the elements, right on the coastline, so a windy week can greatly impact the scoring. The winning score has been anywhere from 13-under to 27-under, all within the last 14 years.

Finally, the course itself is a relatively benign, flat venue that barely stretches over 7,000 yards. It doesn’t demand distance or power, and it has proven that a variety of different skill sets can get across the finish line. That means that nearly every golfer in the field could be a viable winner.

It’s not all chaos, though. Since the TOUR has played at Waialae for every edition of this event, dating back to 1965, we have plenty of great data and information about how players will attack the venue. Playing out of the fairway is paramount, with the reward of playing from the shortgrass averaging out to 0.36 strokes per hole. From there, you’ll see plenty of wedges and short irons with approaches from 150-175 yards being one of the highest correlated stats to success over the last 12 years.

Despite being a short course, Waialae offers generous greens (6,700 sq ft on average), which means that Greens In Regulation rates are astronomical compared to the TOUR average. Since many players will find the putting surface on their approach shot, putting becomes one of the main ways for players to separate themselves from their peers.

In terms of strokes gained, J.J. Spaun had the sixth-best season on TOUR last year – gaining 1.22 strokes per round. Not only was he one of the best players, but his stat profile reveals a model of sustainability that could debunk the theory that 2025 was a fluke. Spaun gained more than a stroke per round from tee-to-green, which is a threshold reserved for the game’s best flushers. The worst facet of his game, driving distance, won’t be punished at Waialae, where accuracy and precision reign supreme. Consider Spaun as an outright option at +1900 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kurt Kitayama quietly had one of the best finishes to 2025, starting with his T5 at the John Deere Classic. That sparked a stretch of eight events where he earned six top-20 finishes, including a win at the 3M Open. That victory was unusual by statistical standards. Kitayama gained only 0.78 strokes putting over the course of four rounds in Blaine, Minnesota. That was the second-worst putting performance by any TOUR winner last year, behind just Scheffler’s win at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. That speaks to his outstanding ball-striking prowess and a game that doesn’t rely on the flatstick getting hot. He’s +370 to finish inside the top 10, which is a feat he’s accomplished in three of his last eight starts.

Sahith Theegala described his 2025 as a “lost season” after being mired with an injury that he tried to play through, leading to the worst season of his career. I’m willing to throw out all of his 2025 statistics and look at both his recent fall results and his career trajectory as a whole. Between 2020 and 2024, Theegala was routinely a player who could gain a half a stroke per round, with the majority of his gains coming from tee-to-green. He flashed that similar skill set this past fall, post-injury, where he picked up nearly eight strokes from tee-to-green in Napa and another 4.5 in Southern Utah. His extended slump has driven his market as low as it has ever been, so I’ll be buying and trying to be “early” on Theegala’s expected success this season. He’s not “all the way” back, but he’s good enough to earn a top-20 finish – priced at +330.

Despite winning the ISCO Championship in 2024, the jury is still out on whether Harry Hall possesses the upside to make him a regular contender on the PGA TOUR. There is no one in this field who beats the field average more frequently than Hall, who accomplishes the feat in 76% of his rounds. However, he struggles to really separate from the pack. He gains three strokes in a round only 20% of the time, a mark that ranks him in the middle of the field. For this week, Waialae will reward great putters, particularly those who can roll it on bermudagrass surfaces. That’s great news for Hall, who is not only the best putter in the field, but his numbers get even better on Bermuda grass. Hall’s high floor makes him a sensible top 20 option at +125.

Finally, since we’ve waited so long for the season to start, we really do deserve some bonus golf! Waialae doesn’t have a lot of ways for players to sprint away from the pack, which usually results in a close race all the way to the finish line. Seven of the last eight editions have been decided in a playoff or by exactly one stroke. The Playoff (Yes) prop is +400, and it’s a click I’ll definitely be making.

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