From 88 to 1: A step-by-step guide to identifying the Masters winner
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It’s almost here! On Masters eve you’ve now read or heard so much analysis and opinion on just who will claim the green jacket. Will Rory McIlroy complete the career Grand Slam? Will Scottie Scheffler be the first repeat champion since Tiger Woods? Will the winner make this their first major for the third straight year? Will Woods contend for a record-equaling sixth title?
Everyone you talk to will give you a winner, but now it’s time to give you 87 losers. Through the process of elimination, here’s how you can arrive at the last man standing based on various trends of recent Masters winners.
From 88 to 87.
Step 1 – The betting favorite hasn’t won in 12 years. Using a combined look at various outlets, one man has edged ahead as the oddsmakers favorite – which means we are sending him packing. Controversy already! But the defending champion Scottie Scheffler is gone!
Eliminated: Scottie Scheffler.
From 87 to 79.
Step 2 – No one over 50 has won the Masters. The ceremonial former champions will remain just that.
Eliminated: Fred Couples, Mike Weir, Vijay Singh, Sandy Lyle, Larry Mize, Jose Maria Olazabal, Bernhard Langer, Phil Mickelson.
From 79 to 63.
Step 3 – A Masters debutant hasn’t won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. We’ve got some studs making their debut like Tom Kim and Kurt Kitayama, but they’ll need at least one year experience to start figuring out Augusta National.
Eliminated: Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Mito Pereira, Sahith Theegala, Taylor Moore, Ryan Fox, Adam Svensson, Adrian Meronk, Gordon Sargent, Kazuki Higa, Sam Bennett, Aldrich Potgieter, Ben Carr, Harrison Crowe, Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira, Matthew McClean.
From 63 to 50.
Step 4 – No player from Austria, Belgium, Chile, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Mexico, Northern Ireland, Norway or Sweden has won the Masters. Carrying the weight of a nation along with personal goals can be very difficult. While Adam Scott (Australia) and Hideki Matsuyama (Japan) added their countries to the honor role in the last decade they are an exception to the rule. (Sorry Rory!)
Eliminated: Sepp Straka, Thomas Pieters, Joaquin Niemann, Shane Lowry, Seamus Power, Francesco Molinari, Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim, K.H. Lee, Abraham Ancer, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Alex Noren.
From 50 to 43.
Step 5 – An incredible 23 of the last 25 winners had a top 30 at the Masters under their belt prior to winning at Augusta National. Experience can’t be underestimated.
Eliminated: Sam Burns, Tom Hoge, Max Homa, Mackenzie Hughes, Keith Mitchell, J.T. Poston, Cameron Young.
From 43 to 32.
Step 6 – Seven of the last eight champions were first time Masters winners. While multiple Masters titles used to be more common, the trend of late is expanding the annual champions dinner.
Eliminated:Sergio Garcia,Dustin Johnson, Zach Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed, Charl Schwartzel, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth, Bubba Watson, Danny Willett, Tiger Woods.
From 32 to 17
Step 7 – Augusta National is a second-shot golf course and 10 of the last 11 winners ranked inside the top seven in Greens in Regulation in their victory. Six of the last seven were averaging at least 67.18% of GIR in their season leading into the Masters. You have to be dialed in at the Masters unless you putt unconsciously.
From 17 to 14.
Step 8 – The last 11 Masters champions had at least one top 10 in a major championship prior to their win. Until you get in the mix on the back nine Sunday in a major it’s hard to know how you’ll play under the pressure.
Eliminated:Talor Gooch, Russell Henley, Harold Varner III.
From 14 to 9.
Step 9 – The last 17 Masters champions have started very well, with all of them inside the top 11 on the leaderboard after the opening round. Their scoring average has been 68.76. Time to eliminate those without a first-round scoring average in the 60s this season.
Eliminated: Keegan Bradley, Corey Conners, Louis Oosthuizen, Gary Woodland, Will Zalatoris.
From 9 to 8.
Step 10 – The last five Masters champions had at least 4-under worth of par-breakers in each of their four rounds on the way to victory. Time to eliminate those not excelling in par-breakers this season, and of those left only Brian Harman ranks outside the top 50.
Eliminated:Brian Harman.
From 8 to 4.
Step 11 – Trending counts at Augusta National. 24 of the last 25 winners played, and made the cut, in the Masters prior to their win. Easy to forget some of these guys missed the cut while Day didn’t even qualify and missed his last two Masters cuts.
Eliminated:Jason Day, Brooks Koepka, Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele
From 4 to 3.
Step 12 – Lets take that a little deeper. 22 of the last 25 winners were at least T38 or better in the Masters start prior to donning the green jacket. Splitting hairs now but a T39 isn’t good enough when we get down to the serious business!
Eliminated: Patrick Cantlay.
From 3 to 2.
Step 13 – Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green has been a good indicator for Masters champions. The last 11 winners had gained at least 18 strokes in their previous four measured starts leading into the Masters. At 17.834, Morikawa is edged out with ruthlessness.
Eliminated:Colin Morikawa
From 2 to 1.
Step 14 – The cutthroat nature continues. The last nine Masters champions averaged 28.39 putts per round on the way to their win. Tony Finau averages 28.41 this season. See ya Tony!
Eliminated: Tony Finau.
Which leaves us with just one player left – and it’s none other than +900 option and world no. 3 Jon Rahm.
You’re welcome.
