Even the most unexpected triumphs usually have a precursor.

J.J. Spaun’s U.S. Open victory was one of the surprises of 2025, but the groundwork was already being laid at the Sony Open in Hawaii months earlier.

Spaun held the 54-hole lead at Waialae Country Club, positioned for his first PGA TOUR win since 2022, but couldn’t get it over the line, bogeying the 17th hole on Sunday and making a disappointing par on the par-5 18th to miss the playoff by one stroke.

In the aftermath, Spaun voiced his disappointment but said he had overcome the big mental hurdle of contention. In previous close calls, Spaun wanted no part of the pressure. This time, he felt comfortable; the ball just didn’t fall his way. That was evident as Spaun contended at THE PLAYERS Championship, then finally emerged victorious at the U.S. Open.

It’s a narrative that emerges yearly on the PGA TOUR. For 11 years running, at least one of the four majors has been won by a first-time major winner. In eight of those years, at least two of the majors were won by first-timers.

So, as the 2026 PGA TOUR season begins, which first-timers could emerge this year? Let’s take a look at five of the most likely candidates.

1. Tommy Fleetwood

Tommy Fleetwood’s 2025 was on par with Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, statistically speaking, though the Englishman can’t truly be on the same tier in the eyes of many without a major championship in his coffers.

After finally putting to bed the doubts of winning a TOUR event with an emphatic victory at the TOUR Championship, can Fleetwood ride that momentum to a major in 2026?

First, consider that Fleetwood has already been one of the most consistent performers in major championships over the last several years, amassing nine top-20s in his last 16 major starts, including four top-four finishes.

Then add another layer of context: the venues for 2026, which are set up even better for the reigning FedExCup champion. His best finish at a major came in a runner-up at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills in 2018. The venue again plays host to the U.S. Open this year, and Fleetwood is a far better player than he was eight years ago. Fleetwood’s style of play – powered by exemplary ball-striking – will always be a fit at Augusta National, where he has three top-15s, including a career-best T3 in 2024, in his last five starts. He finished T27 the last time The Open Championship was at Royal Birkdale in 2018, the site of this year’s fourth major.

Then again, the golf has never really been the problem for Fleetwood. It’s about managing his nerves on the back nine on Sunday. He showed he’s capable at East Lake. Now it’s time to show it on the major stage.

2. Cameron Young

Will Cameron Young be the latest benefactor of the post-Ryder Cup bump? It’s become a trend in recent years for one (or multiple) Ryder Cup rookies to immediately internalize that pressure-packed experience and emerge as a far better player the following year. Scheffler had zero TOUR wins before playing on the 2021 team at Whistling Straits. He won four times the next season, including his first major at the Masters. Robert MacIntyre grabbed his first two TOUR victories in the months that followed his debut Ryder Cup in 2023.

Playing in his home state of New York, Young was the best American at Bethpage Black. While the U.S. Team floundered the first two days, Young was the lone bright spot and won a pivotal match on Sunday that helped start the cascading red wave that nearly resulted in the biggest Ryder Cup comeback in event history.

That points toward a big year for Young, who has already shown himself to be a formidable major championship player. Young burst onto the pro golf scene in 2022 when he contended in a pair of majors, finishing T3 at the PGA Championship and runner-up at The Open Championship at St. Andrews. He followed it up with two more top-10s in 2023, and he has added top-10s in each of the last two majors.

Young has emerged as that special breed of player who plays better in majors than he does in regular PGA TOUR events. He likes the big moments. That was evident at the Ryder Cup, and he could crystallize it with his first major championship this year.

3. Ludvig Åberg

Åberg earned a spot on this list almost exclusively because of his performance at one major championship: the Masters.

Åberg has made as many cuts as he’s missed in eight career major starts, but those bouts of inconsistency are nowhere to be found at Augusta National. Åberg finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler in 2024 in his first major start, then was one of just a few people in position to upend McIlroy’s bid for the career grand slam a year ago. Åberg finished solo-seventh, but that downplays how close he came to the green jacket. Other than Justin Rose, Åberg was the lone player who had a legitimate chance to win with a few holes to play.

Åberg is as sure a bet as it comes to contend again at Augusta National, but could he pick off one of the other three majors? Everything about his game tells you that he should be able to. His length and high-ball flight make him an ideal fit for modern PGA Championship setups. He finished T12 at a firm and fast Pinehurst setup for the 2024 U.S. Open and won The Genesis Invitational at a wet and long Torrey Pines. Those represent the two poles of U.S. Open setups, and Åberg was a fit for both. He has two top-10s in three appearances at the Genesis Scottish Open, the annual prelude to The Open Championship.

All of that screams that a major championship is on the way for the 26-year-old.

4. Robert MacIntyre

If not for Spaun’s heroics at Oakmont’s 18th on Sunday, MacIntyre might already have a major championship on his resume. The Scotsman thrived in the chaos at the U.S. Open, withstanding the weather and pressure with a final-round 68 that vaulted him into second place. He was just a Spaun three-putt away from a playoff, a far more likely outcome than what Spaun eventually did – jarring the 64-footer to win by two shots.

While disappointing, the runner-up finish marked his best in a major championship and the latest evolution in MacIntyre’s career. The 29-year-old has methodically built up his game, first as a stalwart on the DP World Tour, to a two-time PGA TOUR winner, to now a consensus top-10 player in the world.

More than most, MacIntyre is an emotional player. He builds on experience and thrives on the confidence that comes from contention. He knows he’s capable of winning major championships now. That’s no small feat for the boy from Oban.

5. Viktor Hovland

Viktor Hovland’s last two seasons might be best described as erratic. The Norwegian has cycled through coaches and swing feels, detailing all the ebbs and flows in remarkable candor along the way. He’s played well in spurts, surprising himself more than the general golf world, and shot his fair share of regrettable numbers.

Yet amongst all those ups-and-downs, one thing has remained: Hovland knows how to cobble it together for major championships. The seven-time TOUR winner has nabbed a top-five at a major championship in four consecutive seasons. He finished third at the U.S. Open a year ago and third at the PGA Championship in 2024. His performance has extended across all four major championships. He has a top-10 in all four major championships and has missed only four cuts in 23 starts.

As Hovland begins his seventh season on the PGA TOUR, he will likely experience trials and tribulations. That’s just part of the Hovland experience these days. But don’t discount those moments of vulnerability for an incapable golfer. Hovland is still one of the best players in the world, rightly on the shortlist to nab a major in 2026.