Horses for Courses: While Scottie Scheffler might win, find value in Johnny Keefer's ball-striking

After Ryan Fox's gutsy performance at The Open Championship to pick up his first major title, we can officially say that major season is behind us. Now, we push forward through the rest of the season with our eyes set on the upcoming FedExCup Playoffs.

Before we get there, the PGA TOUR makes a stop in Blaine, Minnesota, for the 3M Open.

TPC Twin Cities is one of several TPC venues on the 2026 PGA TOUR schedule, and much like its counterparts, this Arnold Palmer-designed golf course will require strong tee-to-green play, specifically elite ball-striking.

The 7,431-yard, par-71 course is one of the longest par-71 courses on the PGA TOUR schedule. The first factor to consider is the 15 holes that bring water into play, whether that comes off the tee or on approach. Most notably, the drivable par-4 16th hole rewards aggression, but inaccuracy will be punished.

Along with contending with water, golfers will have to deal with a classic parkland-style golf course featuring tree-lined fairways that place a premium on driving accuracy. The rough is also relatively thick, measuring around 4 inches.

The one reprieve for golfers this week is that the fairways are relatively wide and the greens are on the larger side.

TPC Twin Cities is a course that rewards shot-makers. Golfers who can go out there and strike the ball with the best of them should rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Sure, making birdies will be important, and birdie-or-better percentage will be a huge statistic this week. However, which golfers are going to dominate off the tee and on approach, especially when attacking these greens?

The greens aren’t overly tricky like many golfers saw last week at The Open Championship, but don’t be fooled by their size. Golfers can’t hit any part of the green and expect to have a legitimate chance at making birdie. Attacking the correct side of the shelf will give them the best opportunity to convert their chances.

That said, here are the golfers who have gained the most strokes ball striking over the last 36 rounds (Data via Betsperts Golf):

• 1. Scottie Scheffler
• 2. Johnny Keefer
• 3. Jordan Smith
• 4. Tom Kim
• 5. Jackson Suber
• 6. Ben Kohles

Scottie Scheffler at +275 via DraftKings Sportsbook is an interesting golfer this week. He hasn’t won a PGA TOUR event since The American Express in late January, and it feels like the window is closing for Scheffler to pick up his second victory of the season. Add in the fact that this is one of his lowest prices of the season, and it makes us question if we should be on him or not.

Realistically, there isn’t much value in betting Scheffler at +275, but we have to talk about how remarkable his game has been over the last few months.

For someone who hasn’t won a golf tournament since January, all he has done is rack up top-five finishes. He had a stretch from the Masters through the Cadillac Championship where he finished runner-up in every event. He has also added four more top-four finishes since then.

His one major misstep came at the Genesis Scottish Open, where he missed the cut and produced his worst approach performance since the Arnold Palmer Invitational. However, he returned at The Open and was throwing darts everywhere.

Scheffler will probably go on to win this golf tournament despite this being his first appearance at TPC Twin Cities. Even his top-five price of -154 is a bit out of my playable range.

He may be the golfer best suited for this course, but he certainly isn’t the best value.

So, if you want to look beyond Scheffler, there are a couple of options. You can play the winner-without market, which excludes Scheffler entirely, or you can go value hunting.

To find value, I would start by looking at golfers who can make birdies in bunches.

When Kurt Kitayama (+2500) won this tournament, he played really good golf all around, but his victory was propelled by a third-round 60. He followed that performance with a final-round 65.

If golfers want to have success here, they need to go low.

Comparable courses

Another thing I noticed about TPC Twin Cities is its similarities to another golf course on the rotation: PGA National.

While PGA National is located in Florida and features a drastically different climate, it is another parkland-style golf course with water in play on almost every hole. It also features tree-lined fairways with generous landing areas, but plenty of danger when golfers miss those fairways.

PGA National also has large greens with selective undulation and shelving. It is another shotmaker’s golf course that rewards golfers who light it up with their ball striking.

A few other courses that remind me of TPC Twin Cities are TPC Deere Run, the Pete Dye Stadium Course used for The American Express, and TPC Craig Ranch.

Here are the golfers who have gained the most strokes over the last 24 rounds at those courses:

• 1. Scottie Scheffler
• 2. Corey Conners
• 3. Lucas Glover
• 4. Doug Ghim
• 5. Max Homa
• 6. Austin Smotherman

Best value on the board

Johnny Keefer to win (+5900) | Johnny Keefer, First-Round Leader (+6500)

Of the golfers who have gained the most strokes ball striking, Johnny Keefer (+5900) presents the most value for someone trying to take down Scheffler.

While he didn’t have his best stuff at The Open Championship, I can forgive him. He has now recorded a missed cut, a T79, a T39 and a T59 through his first four major championship appearances.

I would rather focus on some of his other results that provide more hope when backing Keefer, such as his T3 at Memorial Park or his T8 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, which was played at TPC Craig Ranch.

In both of those events, he excelled off the tee. He also produced dominant approach numbers.

One thing I’ve noticed about Keefer is that his entire tournament is dictated by how well he drives the ball. When his driver is on and he is hitting fairways, he is dangerous.

At a course like TPC Twin Cities, he shouldn’t have many issues finding the fairways. That allows him to flex his muscles elsewhere, specifically with his approach play.

Since the beginning of May, Keefer has gained strokes on approach in seven of the nine events he has played. The two events where he failed to gain strokes on approach happened to be two of the three majors he played during that stretch.

Making the jump from the Korn Ferry Tour straight to the PGA TOUR is not always an easy transition. Keefer won multiple times on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, proving he knows how to close out golf tournaments.

He hasn’t truly been in contention yet on the PGA TOUR, but there have been enough little signs along the way to show that he is closer than many people probably believe.

At +5900, there is room for error. Keefer is probably not a golfer I want to play in the placement markets because of his volatility, but he has insane spike potential and has already proven that he can win.

If we can get him to spike in the opening round, we can cash a first-round leader ticket or at least give ourselves a legitimate chance. From there, we just need him to put together three more really good rounds to pick up his first PGA TOUR victory.

For resources related to problem gambling, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.