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Draws and Fades: Amateur Miles Russell offers value, Ben James a sneaky play despite slow start

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Draws and Fades

Highlights | Round 1 | Butterfield Bermuda

Highlights | Round 1 | Butterfield Bermuda

The first round of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship is officially in the books, and the day belonged to Chandler Blanchet (+1400), who fired a 9-under 62 to take a one-stroke lead over four golfers.

Blanchet was excellent throughout his round, posting matching 31s on each nine, but his best stretch came late. After bogeying his 13th hole, the par-4 fourth, he responded by playing Nos. 5-7 in 4 under. His approach play was sharp, but his putter play helped separate him from the field.

Port Royal played relatively easy Thursday, averaging 2.53 strokes under par, with little difference between the morning and afternoon waves. With tougher weather expected this weekend, Thursday was the day to attack. Golfers who failed to break par or managed only 1 or 2 under have already put themselves in a difficult position.

There were also some impressive rounds that could have been even better. Ben Kohles (+850) made 11 birdies, tying the tournament record, but three bogeys kept him from matching Blanchet’s 62. His 8-under 63 was good enough to remain just one shot off the lead, but it was certainly a missed opportunity to go even lower.

Corey Conners (+700), the highest-ranked golfer in the field, also put together a fantastic opening round, firing a bogey-free 8-under 63. Unlike Kohles, who had to overcome several mistakes, Conners played a clean round of golf and positioned himself just one stroke off the lead heading into Friday.

Miles Russell, Top 20 (+280, FanDuel)

The first bet I’m making is on young amateur Miles Russell (+10000) to finish inside the top 20. The Florida State commit was one of the best golfers in the field from tee to green Thursday. His driver was excellent, his iron play was sharp, and he recovered well when he missed. Sure, there were some youthful mistakes, but nothing about the moment looked too big for him.

Russell lost more than a stroke putting and still sits T30. I think Port Royal suits younger golfers because it allows them to play freely without constantly worrying about getting punished for being aggressive. Russell looked completely dialed in Thursday, and getting slightly better than even money on him to finish inside the top 20 feels like tremendous value.


Miles Russell makes birdie on No. 17 at Butterfield Bermuda

Miles Russell makes birdie on No. 17 at Butterfield Bermuda


Ben James, Top 20 (+270, FanDuel)

Call me a sucker or a bad bettor, but I have a hard time passing on Ben James (+8000) to finish inside the top 20 at +270. If you’re strictly scoreboard watching, this probably looks like a terrible bet. James sits T76 after opening with a 1-under 70 on one of the shortest courses on Tour. But I don’t think +270 accurately reflects his chances.

James entered the week as the tournament favorite at roughly +1400, and his opening round wasn’t nearly as bad as the score suggests. He gained more than two strokes ball-striking and was excellent off the tee. His irons could improve, but the real damage came around the greens. According to Data Golf, James lost 2.4 strokes around the green and another 1.4 strokes putting.

That’s where I expect a massive turnaround.

Look at what James has done since joining the Tour. He finished T23 at the U.S. Open, T15 at the ISCO Championship and T4 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. More recently, he finished third at the Wyndham Championship, second at the Biltmore Championship Asheville and T5 at the Bank of Utah Championship. In each of those events, he gained strokes putting.


Ben James's 146-yard approach sets up birdie on No. 1 at Butterfield Bermuda

Ben James's 146-yard approach sets up birdie on No. 1 at Butterfield Bermuda


We’re talking about one of the most accurate drivers in the field, a golfer who has consistently put himself in contention and someone whose recent results suggest Thursday’s short-game struggles were an outlier.

He has one round to climb back into position to make the cut and another two to move up the leaderboard. I’m not ruling out an outright comeback, either. At +8000, it’s tempting given his talent and how well Port Royal suits his game.

But I’m sticking with the top 20. James is too talented, his ball-striking is too good, and his recent putting performances give me enough confidence to expect a bounce-back. At +270, I’ll gladly take the value.

R2
Em Andamento

Butterfield Bermuda Championship

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