Draws and Fades: Hideki Matsuyama poised to challenge leaders after opening-round rally at FedEx St. Jude Championship
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Highlights | Round 1 | FedEx St. Jude
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TPC Southwind has a way of routinely making the best players in the world uncomfortable. Whether it’s the heavy Memphis, Tennessee, heat, well-guarded firm greens or water-lined fairways, this event has a way of presenting unique challenges. That said, over half the field finished Round 1 of the FedEx St. Jude Championship in red figures, with numerous big names lurking just behind the pack of five tied for the lead at 5 under.
Jordan Spieth, Michael Thorbjornsen, Kurt Kitayama, Jake Knapp and Michael Kim have set the pace, but there is basically no separation behind them after 18 holes. The course has proven to be gettable as long as you can avoid the hazards and keep the ball in play. The story of the day, as it often is at TPC Southwind, was all about ball-striking prowess.
A surprising bogey-free 65 from Spieth will garner most of the headlines, but equally impressive was the round from recent winner Michael Thorbjornsen, who closed with 4 under on his final four holes on Thursday. Several players who started hot, including Spieth, arrived in Memphis outside the top 50 in the FedExCup standings and were looking for a big week to punch their ticket to Bellerive and the BMW Championship.
Jordan Spieth's Round 1 highlights from FedEx St. Jude
Current live odds to win the tournament have shifted plenty since this morning. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler's price has drifted, while all five co-leaders have been bet down significantly. There’s value there for the taking, and we are here to take a deep dive into the stats from Thursday’s round to make some moves ahead of the weekend.
Updated odds to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship (DraftKings)
- +610: Scottie Scheffler
- +960: Tommy Fleetwood
- +1275: Hideki Matsuyama
- +1300: Michael Thorbjornsen
- +1350: Xander Schauffele
- +1450: Sam Burns
Hideki Matsuyama gets up-and-down from 175 yards for birdie on No. 18 at FedEx St. Jude
Draws: Hideki Matsuyama to Win (+1275)
After shooting a 1-over 36 on the front nine, Hideki Matsuyama dominated the back nine, closing with five consecutive birdies to finish 4 under and tied for sixth place. He did so despite losing strokes on the greens, but his surgical approach play routinely gave him opportunities inside 15 feet to cash in on.
The iron play was excellent, and the driver continues to cooperate. More importantly, there isn’t a player in the field who I trust more from a course history standpoint at TPC Southwind. Matsuyama won there in 2024, finished runner-up in 2021, and is in the midst of his best run of the season. He’s played five consecutive weeks leading into this event, all with finishes of T14 or better.
The leaders are only ahead by one stroke, and several of them needed significantly more from the putter to get there. He looks dialed in with his approach play, which has historically won out over 72 holes at TPC Southwind. The current odds at +1275 are enough for me to jump aboard before that number disappears this weekend.
Collin Morikawa, Top-20 Finish (+140)
Two disappointing bogeys to end his round actually provide us with a solid opportunity and the odds boost we're looking for. He tops the entire field in true strokes gained on approach this season, and enters this week with a trending putter that makes him intriguing. On paper, he’s an ideal course fit for TPC Southwind.
Collin Morikawa sinks 16-inch putt for birdie on No. 3 at FedEx St. Jude
The course history backs that up. Morikawa has never finished worse than T22 in his last four starts here, showcasing a level of consistency on a course that penalizes lesser ball-strikers. He’s poised for a rebound round tomorrow, and he can steadily accumulate good numbers for the final 54 holes to land himself inside that top 20, capitalizing on the plus-money current price. Pretty straightforward and too juicy to pass up.
