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Draws and Fades: Michael Thorbjornsen ripe for action, Scottie Scheffler eyeing early exit

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Draws and Fades

Draws and Fades: Young stars ready to ascend while Scheffler stumbles at WM Phoenix Open

Draws and Fades: Young stars ready to ascend while Scheffler stumbles at WM Phoenix Open

    Escrito por Jimmy Reinman

    SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — With one round in the books at TPC Scottsdale, the leaderboard is loaded with appetizing plays ready to be ambushed. It was a lively opening act to a raucous week at the WM Phoenix Open, and the tournament favorite grabbed headlines, just not the kind he’s used to.

    World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, a pre-tournament +230 favorite, opened with an uncharacteristic 2-over 73, carding five bogeys and a double. Those who faded the popular “Winner Without Scheffler” market are already taking early victory laps, as if Scheffler isn’t fully capable of firing a Friday 62 and vaulting right back into contention.

    Despite scorching rounds from perhaps the hottest player in golf, Chris Gotterup, and a resurgent Matt Fitzpatrick, the rest of the board remains tightly packed. Fifty-six players sit at 1-under or better, well within striking distance of the 36-hole lead.

    Here’s a look at the odds from DraftKings Sportsbook:

    PlayerOutrightTop 5 (Incl. Ties)Top 10 (Incl. Ties)
    Chris Gotterup+310−158−340
    Matt Fitzpatrick+840+144−148
    Pierceson Coody+1400+225+106
    Michael Thorbjornsen+1425+225+105
    Maverick McNealy+1500+235+108
    Nicolai Højgaard+1700+270+128
    Jake Knapp+1850+280+128
    Hideki Matsuyama+1850+270+125
    Sam Stevens+1850+280+128
    Scottie Scheffler+2100+305+142

    No, your eyes do not deceive you, Scheffler is still the ninth-shortest outright price at +2100 despite sitting 2-over par. And why wouldn’t he be? He’s posted 16 straight top-10 finishes and made 64 consecutive cuts. That doesn’t necessarily mean you should light your bankroll on fire chasing it, though.

    Instead, there are some serious young stars with heavyweight appeal sitting near the top of the board. Let’s break it down.

    Michael Thorbjornsen - Top 5 (+220) - Outright (+1600)

    Few young players bring more pedigree or feel more due than Michael Thorbjornsen. The rising star has returned this season with something to prove, looking every bit like the player many projected early in his career.

    Thorbjornsen missed the cut to begin his season at The American Express after one poor nine on Saturday cost him at the 54-hole mark. Outside of that hiccup, the body of work has been strong. He finished T18 at Torrey Pines last week and charged out of the gates Thursday at TPC Scottsdale with a 66.

    What stands out most are the metrics. Thorbjornsen has been sharper off the tee than both Gotterup and Fitzpatrick to start the week. He gained more than a stroke in nearly every major category, only slightly lagging in approach, where he still ranks inside the top 40 after hitting 16 greens in regulation.

    Most books are still hanging +225 for a Top 5 on a player sitting T3. For a talent of his caliber, that’s real value in a field where volatility is everywhere.


    Draws and Fades: Young stars ready to ascend while Scheffler stumbles at WM Phoenix Open

    Draws and Fades: Young stars ready to ascend while Scheffler stumbles at WM Phoenix Open


    Akshay Bhatia - Top 10 (+375) - Outright (+7000)

    Akshay Bhatia quietly posted a stress-free 3-under 68 in Round 1, and the path to Gotterup isn’t exactly Murderers’ Row at the moment. At 70-1, you’re getting a proven TOUR winner with legitimate firepower.

    The two missed cuts to open the season are inflating this number, but that shouldn’t scare you off if you’re looking for upside. Bhatia’s issue early this year has been the big number, something TPC Scottsdale doesn’t hand out as freely as other stops. What it does allow? Low rounds.

    That smooth 68 could be the equivalent of a shooter seeing the ball go through the hoop. With the leaders at 8-under, you need someone capable of going nuclear from five back. History says Bhatia has that gear.

    There’s plenty of golf left in the desert. Just don’t let one ugly Scheffler card distract you from where the real value might be sitting.

    PGATOUR.COM's Sammy Cibulka contributed to this report.

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