The Quail Hollow Club is a staple on the PGA TOUR schedule, even if it’s not always the host of the Truist Championship. Quail Hollow has hosted the biggest events, including last year’s PGA Championship and the 2022 Presidents Cup. There is plenty of data to crunch this week in preparation for the Truist Championship, but there is one place to focus: off-the-tee play.

Specifically, driving distance. Quail Hollow is long – more than 7,500 yards – and it requires driver on every hole. The longest hitters have an advantage, but they get a bonus if they can carry the trouble. That’s the thing: Having a carry distance of roughly 315 yards is going to let players remove much of the trouble off the tee and set themselves up in proper locations. It’ll provide a floor where the longest hitters won’t have to be perfect in all other facets since they are so well rewarded on their first shots.

The green complexes at Quail Hollow are large, averaging more than 6,500 square feet, but experience will be beneficial. Statistically, players who are adept in the 15-to-25-foot range have found success at Quail Hollow relative to other courses on the TOUR schedule.

Finally, results at Quail Hollow tend to be “sticky,” with consistent year-over-year results for a large swath of the field. This is certainly a “course horse” venue.

There are horses for courses, and then there is Rory McIlroy at Quail Hollow. He might as well be Secretariat when he tees it up in Charlotte. He’s gained 2.58 strokes per round in his 54 rounds at this venue. That has translated to four wins and nine top-10 finishes.

It’s also the best statistical venue for McIlroy on the PGA TOUR. There isn’t another course where he has a better strokes gained rate when he has played it at least five times. It makes sense, too, since McIlroy’s skill set is so perfectly suited for Quail Hollow. He’s able to carry much of the trouble off the tee and give himself one of the highest floors possible.

He’s gaining a ridiculous 1.37 strokes off the tee per round in his career at Quail Hollow. Over four rounds, he’s beating the field by nearly six shots with his driver alone. Considering it takes about 15 strokes to win in a field this size, McIlroy is almost guaranteed to be 40% of the way there when he shows up this week. His odds to win are currently listed at +580, via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chris Gotterup has never played Quail Hollow in competition, but I’m sure he’s going to like it when he sees it. Similar to McIlroy, Gotterup has a weapon in the bag – his driver – that will give him a solid starting point.

His approach play in Miami last week was dismal, but that snapped a nine-event streak of gaining strokes on approach. While it’s a consideration, it’s not much of a concern. He’s proven to be a high-upside player, so I want to make sure to tap into that range of outcomes. I’d consider a top-five market on Gotterup, which can currently be found at +690.

Si Woo Kim might be having one of the most underrated seasons on TOUR. He’s already captured five top-five finishes, which is more than anyone else in this field. He’s made every single cut, and he’s inside the top 10 in Strokes Gained for his campaign.

His record at Quail Hollow started slow with a missed cut and withdrawal in his first two trips, but those were in 2016 and 2017. He’s played here each of the last three years and has gotten better in every start. He finished T43 in 2023, T16 in 2024 and T8 at last year’s PGA Championship.

This is, by far, the best season of his career statistically, and he’s routinely been in contention. There’s no reason to think that’ll stop anytime soon. My consideration for Si Woo Kim is a top-10 wager, listed at +185 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Once reliant only on his putter, Sam Burns is starting to make strides in the other facets of his game. He’s gained strokes on approach in four straight starts and has been a positive driver of the ball all season.

He’s long enough off the tee to make an impact at Quail Hollow, and he’s seemingly trending at the right time. This recent run has produced four top-25 finishes, which include three events that were either Signature Events or a major championship. His top-20 number stands out, currently listed at -105.

Let’s zoom out a bit and really look at what Alex Fitzpatrick has been up to this year. His last four starts on the DP World Tour were splendid, with four consecutive top-25 finishes, and he wrapped up his run with a T8 at the Joburg Open and a win at the Hero Indian Open.

That run alone warrants consideration for this week, but there is so much more to digest. He captured the Zurich Classic alongside his brother Matt to immediately earn his PGA TOUR card. (Something, by the way, he was likely to get on his own accord at the end of the DP World Tour season thanks to its pathway.)

If that wasn’t enough, he followed it up with a T9 last week at the Blue Monster, where he gained seven strokes in the two ball-striking categories. That shouldn’t be a surprise, considering he gained strokes in both of those categories in each of his six DP World Tour starts before coming over to this circuit. It’s a long-winded way to say that he is both really good and really long off the tee. He’s my favorite top-20 play of the week, currently priced at +290.

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