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Ago 8, 2023

DFS Dish: Get ready to ride the Jordan Spieth roller coaster at TPC Southwind

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DFS Dish: Get ready to ride the Jordan Spieth roller coaster at TPC Southwind
    Escrito por Tour Junkies

    Tournament Preview (David Barnett)

    That’s a wrap on the Regular Season! What a finish at the Wyndham Championship as Lucas Glover putted his way to victory and a Playoffs berth from outside the top 100 in the FedExCup standings. The drama on Sunday was some of the best golf viewing of the season with names like Justin Thomas, Adam Scott and others going low in an effort to extend their season.

    The FedExCup Playoffs start this week with the FedEx St. Jude Championship from TPC Southwind. It’s a course we’re fairly familiar with as it’s played host to a PGA TOUR event for decades. TPC Southwind is one of those courses that’s produced a variety of winners from Daniel Berger to Will Zalatoris. Precision off the tee is a prerequisite as the Bermuda rough is notoriously penal, not to mention the 11 holes with water in play. “It’s a really good golf course, rewards good ball-striking and you don’t have to be overly long on this golf course,” said Rory McIlroy, “but you have to be accurate and put your ball in the right position.” Once you’ve navigated finding the fairway, hitting a bunch of mid-irons into the smaller-than-average, Bermuda grass greens will separate the field this week.

    In terms of DFS for a week like the FedEx St. Jude Championship, we’ve got to remember that a no-cut, 70-man field compels us to approach lineup building differently than an average week. Unless there’s a WD, every DFS entry will have all six players scoring points in all four rounds. Considering how heavily weighted towards scoring DraftKings point structure is, don’t be afraid to roster a handful of those “high ceiling – low floor” scorers. It would also be a good idea to leave some DraftKings salary on the table when building lineups. Too many players in large tournaments will use all of their $50K. Using all of your salary in a 70-man field likely means you’ve duplicated someone’s lineup, and you’re already losing money when your upside is capped because you’ve got to split winnings with another entry.

    All in all, remember to leave some cash on the table, and don’t be afraid to fade a fairly chalky player for the guy next to him with the same high upside, but possibly lower floor. A guaranteed four rounds can lead to a lot of DraftKings points for the scorers in this field. Sit back and let ‘em cook!

    Lineup Picks (Pat Perry & Ben Little)

    Sometimes in life, you just really want to put Jordan Spieth in your DraftKings lineups. We know it can be a roller coaster ride. But sometimes you’ve got to follow your heart. So, we’re locking him in our lineups with an extra head restraint, just in case we need it.

    This is a great course setup for Spieth’s skillset, and he’s proven that with three top-15 finishes at TPC Southwind in the last five years. Sure, we may see a ball in the water – or three – but that’s not stopping us. Spieth has still been solid with his approach play and ball-striking for the majority of this season. When you ride the Spieth roller coaster, you have to trust your safety measures and hope for the best. His scoring upside potential in a no-cut event makes the risk worth taking. Plus, he’ll likely be one of the lowest-owned players in DFS contests from the $9,000 and above range.

    We talk about “pivot” plays on DraftKings every week of the season. In a small field like we have this week, it’s a little easier to spot where the chalk might be. This presents an even more glaring opportunity to pivot off the chalk to a lower-owned option with a high upside.

    Sam Burns seems to fit this mold perfectly. Burns has been the epitome of boom or bust this year with seven top-15 finishes and a win at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. He’s also had his fair share of lackluster weeks. That’s exactly what we want this week! Why not chance it with the incredible upside Burns has and combine that with potential low ownership at a fair price? It’s been no secret during his young career that “Bermuda Burns” feels quite comfortable on the green surface this week. As long as he can keep the driver in play, we could envision a first page of the leaderboard sighting for Sam Burns.

    Finally, let’s wrap this up with an interesting “pivot” that burned over 30% of DFS lineups to the ground last week at the Wyndham Championship. Denny McCarthy was the definition of chalk last week. He missed the cut by one shot. However, a lesson we can all afford to be reminded of from time to time is that the result on the leaderboard doesn’t always paint the most accurate picture of a player’s week.

    McCarthy had two swings at the Wyndham Championship that cost him 3.6 shots. He found the water during Round 1 with his tee shot on the par-3 seventh, and he hit it out of bounds off the tee in Round Two on No. 17. Two bad swings cost him a made cut and an opportunity to improve his position on the weekend.

    Lucas Glover had a three-putt from 19 feet at the 3M Open to miss the cut on the number before going on to win the Wyndham Championship a week later. He three-putts from 19 feet around 2% of the time. Golf is weird. Bad swings happen.

    McCarthy is a popular player in DFS and won’t be ignored this week. However, the missed cut last week will certainly turn people off the $7,500 putting wizard. He’s played TPC Southwind twice in his career, landing top-20 finishes both times. This golf course doesn’t require distance. It requires precision accuracy…check…and strong Bermuda putting…check check. With plenty of ownership drifting to Byeong-Hun An, Lucas Glover, and J.T. Poston, don’t sleep on Denny McCarthy bouncing back in a big way in Memphis.

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