Sleeper Picks: Who's flying under radar at BMW Championship?

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified. As an added feature for the BMW Championship, all sleepers will need to perform well to advance to the FedExCup Playoffs finale. For this week’s edition, all rank outside the top 30 in points. Scenarios for what all golfers ranked Nos. 31-50 need to do to advance can be viewed here.

Outright

Jake Knapp (+3800) ... Last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship was the 70th tournament in FedExCup Playoffs history. Eliminating the 19 editions of the TOUR Championship that concludes the series, only four of the other 51 winners began the week in which they prevailed outside the bubble to advance. Heath Slocum was the first when he won what was The Barclays in 2009 seeded 124th. All of the other three occurred in the BMW Championship, including twice by Keegan Bradley – in 2018 when he ranked 52nd and in 2024 when he was the last man in the field at 50th. This is to say that while 60% of the field at Bellerive Country Club arrives inside the top 30, the likelihood of the winner emerging from that cohort is much higher, at least based on the entire history of the Playoffs. So, when targeting the other 40%, firepower is our friend.

The 32-year-old from California slots 35th in the FedExCup and presents precisely the kind of punch required despite his low-key vibe. If the course is soft, which it very well could be given the decent chance to rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday, his length will play up more than it usually does. He’s played through an extended recovery for a sprained left thumb but it hasn’t prevented him from sending it off the tee and from hanging up scores like his closing 62 at the 3M Open where he finished T13. Now he’s fresh off a T7 at TPC Southwind, his best result since his return to action in June.

On an aside, if you were considering one of the five PGA TOUR non-winners in the field in this market, the neutral field of Bellerive supports the angle. Furthermore, while there have been only three breakthroughs in 70 Playoffs events, the first was by Camilo Villegas in 2008 ... at Bellerive.

Top 5

Ben Griffin (+770) ... Going for two in a row in this market, so there’s no pressure on the 30-year-old to answer the bell, not that he has enough on his plate arriving at 38th in the FedExCup. Indeed, the only golfer who opened the FedEx St. Jude Championship outside the top 50 and recorded a top-15 finish was Sungjae Im, and he delivered a T5 to pay off pre-tournament tickets with odds at +1200. Since the current Playoffs format of qualifying 70 golfers began in 2023, six golfers outside the top 30 at the BMW Championship recorded a top five in the penultimate leg. That includes five guys in 2024, two of whom didn’t advance, but the latter outcome doesn’t matter for our purposes. Both of Griffin’s top fives this year were in May and he’s scuffling upon arrival, but the calculus here is simple. Ten percent of the field is guaranteed a top five and his value to thread this needle relative to others is fantastic. And besides, he’s riding Im’s coattails!

Top 10

Maverick McNealy (+260) ... His odds across the board are shorter than Griffin’s but McNealy hasn’t connected for a top five since, well, last year’s BMW Championship. Perhaps if Bellerive hosted every year and that’s where he finished third – instead, it was Caves Valley Golf Club that hosted in 2025 – then the duo might be reversed here, but this 30-year-old is a better fit in this market. McNealy has two top 10s among 11 top 25s on the season and rolls in having hung up respective finishes of T25 and T19. At 49th in the FedExCup, he’ll have to do much better than that to crash the field at the TOUR Championship, but that singular focus is ideal for our objective. Although he’s below TOUR average in splitting fairways and hitting greens in regulation, he’s No. 1 in converting par-breakers when going for the green on par 4s and par 5s. That accounts for only so many chances but it speaks to his level of comfort in utilizing his patented short game and putting every chance he gets. With only 50 in the field, no cut and all the reason to swing for the fence with nothing to lose, there’s no better time than to be aggressive as he wants to be.

Top 20

Gary Woodland (+134) ... His position at 31st in the FedExCup divides fans as cynical or hopeful. On one hand, it’d be the wrong ending of his memorable and impactful season if he doesn’t crack the top 30, but on the other, because he’s not in yet, he’s poised to tug on the heartstrings if he can gut out one more positive performance to punch his ticket for the TOUR Championship. Since rising to victory at the Texas Children’s Hospital Open two weeks after opening up about his battle with PTSD, he’s added five top 20s, but none of them in consecutive fashion. So, with twisted logic, it bodes better than he settled for a T42 in the lid-lifter in Memphis. While no one has a higher value in the unofficial measurement of grit, he has the bonus of posting a T6 at Bellerive in the 2018 PGA Championship. But most of all, some bets are purely for the opportunity to go along for the ride, so our bonus is that there’s plus-value in this one.

Top 20

Nico Echavarria (+196) ... All of the odds for the top 5/10/20 bets on this page include ties but markets for which dead heat rules are available. I always prefer to expand the possibilities despite shorter odds as long as there’s plus-money on the board for reasonable targets. This is to say that I’m stunned that the Colombian is fifth-longest. He’s always lurked more than he’s made noise, which helps explain these odds, but he’s on the bounce of consecutive T12s the last two weeks. Momentum is everything in the Playoffs, and he needs it at 42nd in the FedExCup, but he has it!

Odds were sourced at DraftKings.

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