Statistically Speaking: Better go low or you’ll bust in Vegas
3 Min Read
Get hot, stay hot! If you are looking for the numbers to send you somewhere ahead of your fantasy and gaming needs this week you have to know going low is the only option at TPC Summerlin in the Shriners Children’s Open.
This very familiar Par-71 at 7,255 yards is known for notching up birdies and eagles when we get calm desert skies and velvet-like Bentgrass greens and with limited wind in the forecast get ready for the roars from the Vegas faithful.
The recipe here is to keep the ball in the fairway and attack flags on the ample 7,400 square foot targets. Hot putters also will factor as most will paint the large green complexes.
Scoring is not optional this week:
• Of the previous 13 winners, 10 have posted 20-under or better.
• Tournament scoring record is 24-under posted three times, including last year.
• Last three seasons have produced 134 bogey free rounds.
• 43 players 10-under or better last year.
• 56 players 10-under or better 2020.
• 60 players 10-under or better 2019.
Let's look back at what past champions have used to excel at TPC Summerlin
Key Statistics
Only players listed are competing this week; click stat headline for additional players; Stats from 2021-22 completed season.
As we saw above, rounds in the 70s need not apply. You got to push your chips all in here. You must score to win! TPC Summerlin has ranked in the top nine easiest courses the last three seasons. Those of you who are curious for KFT graduates stats please click here and navigate.
| Rank | Player |
| T3 | Tom Hoge |
| 6 | Keith Mitchell |
| T7 | Brian Harman |
| T7 | Adam Svensson |
| 10 | Sungjae Im |
| T13 | Denny McCarthy |
| T13 | Aaron Wise |
| T15 | Adam Hadwin |
| T15 | Maverick McNealy |
| T15 | JT Poston |
| T15 | Andrew Putnam |
Hitting GIR and converting chances has been the hallmark of previous champions. Of the last seven, six have ranked T12 or better. Score, score and score!
| Rank | Player |
| 4 | Patrick Cantlay |
| 6 | Vince Whaley |
| 10 | Lucas Herbert |
| 12 | Maverick McNealy |
| 13 | Cam Davis |
| 14 | Danny Lee |
| 25 | Rory Sabbatini |
| 28 | Peter Malnati |
| T32 | Keith Mitchell |
Of the last six winners four have ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in this category. The outlier was Kevin Na who checked in at No. 55. All he did is roll in 558 feet of putts, a ShotLink era record. Hard to replicate that!
| Rank | Player |
| 9 | Sungjae Im |
| 14 | Patrick Cantlay |
| 16 | Mito Pereira |
| 20 | Chris Kirk |
| 24 | Max Homa |
| 25 | Aaron Wise |
| 29 | Keith Mitchell |
| 30 | Martin Laird |
| 33 | Tom Hoge |
| 34 | Gary Woodland |
Circle birdies. Double circle eagles. Last year there were 74 eagles, the most on one course on TOUR since 2019. Chances to get low everywhere need to be taken! The cut here the last three seasons has been 5-under, 7-under and 5-under! The more, the merrier and a better chance for the weekend!
| Rank | Player |
| 5 | Patrick Cantlay |
| 13 | Maverick McNealy |
| 19 | Vince Whaley |
| 22 | Aaron Wise |
| 24 | Sungjae Im |
| 27 | Cam Davis |
| 28 | Taylor Pendrith |
| 29 | Emiliano Grillo |
| 31 | Keith Mitchell |
The Bottom Line
With the above key stats in mind, it’s not hard to see why Patrick Cantlay tops the betting markets (+700) and costs the most in DFS. He’s a former champion and has finished no lower than T8 in four starts. Of 16 rounds, seven are 65 or better.
Defending champion Sungjae Im (+1200) also features heavily in key stats as does Maverick McNealy.
Don’t sleep on Keith Mitchell. He’s on all four lists above and sits at +4600 to win the tournament.
As always don’t forget to also look at Horses for Courses, and Rob Bolton’s Sleepers for extra value and the Power Rankings for the top of the board considerations.
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