Sleeper Picks: Who's a value play at FedEx St. Jude Championship?

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified. As an added feature for the next two weeks, all Sleepers will need to perform well to advance in the FedExCup Playoffs. For this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, all Sleepers rank outside the top 50 in points. Scenarios for all golfers in the field who can advance can be viewed here.

Outright

Jackson Koivun (+4200) ... He’s 21 years old, 70th in the FedExCup and just five starts into his professional career; oh, and those odds are not a misprint. He’s 17th-shortest in the field of 69. DraftKings knows what it’s doing but no doubt demand in the wunderkind is high. That’s how shiny, new toys work, but his rapid escalation to the big leagues is the only reason he’s a Sleeper relative to the rest.

The recent winner of the 3M Open doesn’t need to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship to advance to the BMW Championship but he might as well set that as his only target because he has nothing to lose. He’s already shored up a PGA TOUR membership exemption through 2028 along with berths in the 2027 editions of THE PLAYERS Championship, the Masters and the PGA Championship. Because there have been only three first-time winners in 69 events in Playoffs history, consider ruling out the 11 non-winners in the field, six of whom are outside the top 50. Meanwhile, Koivun is one of the 12 tournament debutants. The last first-time participant to prevail at TPC Southwind was in 2016 when Daniel Berger won the old FedEx St. Jude Classic. Coincidentally, he’s the only 2026 Playoffs qualifier who didn’t commit, and at 60th in points, he will not advance.

Top 5

Sungjae Im (+1200) ... Given his prior experience with TPC Southwind and mild surge upon arrival, it’d have been easy to slot him as the outright (at +9600), but he’s coming up on five years since his last PGA TOUR victory at the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open. By comparison, it’s been only three months since his last top five at the Truist Championship, which is one of two on the season. And while Koivun presents as a more convincing threat to win, Im brings a punch easily worth the inflated value in this market even though he doesn’t need a top five to advance from 53rd in the FedExCup. Three top 15s in his last four starts is enough evidence that he’s close, as the touring professionals like to say. Smaller greens tend to neutralize a skill set like his that showcases touch around them in conjunction with putting, but he checked up one stroke outside the top five at TPC Southwind in 2023. It’s one of three top 20s since the course started hosting the opening leg of the Playoffs in 2022.

Top 10

Brian Harman (+620) ... If not for a T3 at the 3M Open, the lefty might not have qualified for his 15th consecutive appearance in the Playoffs, but now that he did, he might as well capitalize. Opening at 65th in points, he needs no worse than a two-way T8 to be in position to advance, so let’s take that ride with him on these tasty odds. He’s connected for a top 10 twice before at TPC Southwind, first with a T6 in 2014 and again with a T3 in 2022. In his three appearances since the latter, he’s spoiled three sub-70s in each with one round over par per edition.

Top 20

Corey Conners (+200) ... Compared to the previous two markets, this is all but a slam dunk for the Canadian in his 10th start at TPC Southwind. Granted, he’s risen for only one top 25 but that was a T6 in 2023, so there’s precedent. Most recently, he finished T20 in his last start at the Rocket Classic for what was his third top 20 in five starts after a three-month lull. The results help ease any concern about his fit for the course and form upon arrival, but he’s still the ball-striking machine that generated his eighth straight Playoffs appearance. So, our hope relies on a cooperative putter, but that’s nothing new.

Top 30

Max Homa (+188) ... Unlike the odds that include ties for Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20 endorsements above, dead heat rules apply to this one. It makes sense given that only 69 golfers are in the field and there is no cut. At 52nd in the FedExCup, the 35-year-old is in a leverage position to advance, but that he’s even back in the Playoffs after finishing 111th last year qualifies as a success. It speaks to his grit and ability to adapt as his family grows as it did just over a year ago with the birth of his second child.

After flirting with the bubble all season, he rallied for four top-30 finishes in his last six starts, the highlight being a runner-up at the John Deere Classic in early July. Like Im and Conners above, Homa also placed T6 at TPC Southwind in 2023, so it’s relevant to cite that that’s merely a coincidence as it concerns their inclusion on this page. However, Homa is rolling the rock almost as well this season as he was during that career year in which he won twice and totaled 13 top 10s.

Odds were sourced at DraftKings.

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