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Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy top betting board for U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills

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Rory McIlroy gets up-and-down from 116 yards for birdie on No. 14 at the Memorial

Escrito por Mike Glasscott

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler returns to action as the betting favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook for the 126th United States Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club.

With a victory this week, Scheffler (+550) would join the elite club of players who have won the career Grand Slam. The Texan, who will defend his Open Championship title next month at Royal Birkdale, finished second to Rory McIlroy at the Masters and T14 in defense of his PGA Championship at Aronimink. His four major championships trail only McIlroy and Brooks Koepka for the most of players entered this week. Playing Shinnecock Hills for the first time as a professional, Scheffler enters the week leading the PGA TOUR in numerous statistical categories, including Strokes Gained: Total and SG: Tee-to-Green. His improvement in his short game, now ranked third in SG: Around-the-Green and 19th SG: Putting, will need to shine around and on the massive, undulating putting surfaces, the defense of this course. In his last 10 major championship appearances, he earned three wins and eight top-10 paydays.

The 2011 U.S. Open champion and a six-time major champion, Rory McIlroy (+1200), slots in, per usual, as second choice to Scheffler. The two-time reigning Masters champion added T7 at the PGA Championship and has performed as projected at golf’s biggest events in 2026. Only one of six men to hold the career Grand Slam, he is among a large group of players returning from the 2018 edition, the last time the U.S. Open was held at Shinnecock Hills. McIlroy shot 80-70 to miss the cut but has not missed a weekend at the U.S. Open since. His run of six consecutive top-10 paydays from 2019 to 2024 was broken last year with T19 at Oakmont.

Jon Rahm (+1300) is hot on the heels of his Ryder Cup teammate from 60 miles west down the road at Bethpage Black. The 2021 winner at Torrey Pines also did not qualify for the weekend in the 2018 event. The following year, he began a streak of six consecutive cuts made, including his victory and three other top-10 paydays. His worst result in this current run is T23 at Winged Foot in 2020. His power and precision travel regardless of which coast is hosting the event. He enters this week off a T2 at the PGA Championship, his third top-10 result in his previous five major championships.

New York native Cameron Young (+2000) is the only non-winner of a major championship among the top four choices. Before August of 2025, he was searching for his first PGA TOUR win. His victory at the Wyndham Championship provided the accelerant for his fantastic beginning to 2026. The Scarborough native added THE PLAYERS Championship and Cadillac Championship this spring while also hitting the podium at the Masters (T3) and Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (T3). He has plenty of power, but he also ranks sixth in bogey avoidance and seventh in scrambling, two key stats to follow this week. Grinding out pars at a U.S. Open will never go out of style, especially when the winning score in 2018 was 1-over 281. Young earned T26 at the PGA Championship and T46 at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday in his previous two events.

Cameron Young on sustaining success in golf

One week after they were joint favorites at the RBC Canadian Open, the English duo of Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood share a spot this week at +2200.

Fitzpatrick posted 64 on Sunday, tied for the low round of the day, but fell two shots short of champion Bud Cauley in second place. The 2022 winner at The Country Club outside Boston has made the cut in 10 of 11 U.S. Open starts and owns paydays of T18 or better in four of his last five. The only three-time winner on TOUR in the 2026 season, Fitzpatrick's ability to split fairways and grind out pars around the greens is his superpower. Earning T12 at the 2018 event, he posted two rounds of even-par 70 to post 288, seven shots behind champion Brooks Koepka (+3500). While there is plenty of room off the tee and into the greens, the examination kicks in around and on the greens! Over 150 bunkers and five inches of fescue rough will penalize wayward drives and approach shots.

Fleetwood (+2200) missed his seventh top-10 paycheck of 2026 by cashing T11 at TPC Toronto last week. The reigning FedExCup champion has not produced a top-10 result in his previous nine major championship attempts. He returns to Shinnecock Hills with the course record, 63, all to himself. The runner-up in 2018, he posted 66 in Round 2 and 63 in Round 4, two of the lowest rounds of the week. Shinnecock also pipped him for 75 in Round 1 and 78 in Round 3, a reminder of how quickly fortunes and weather can shift just off the Atlantic Ocean. Searching for his first major championship, he will embrace blustery conditions and a grinder’s mentality but will also need a bit of luck to see it across the finish line.

Tommy Fleetwood hits tee shot to 2 feet, sets up birdie on No. 14 at RBC Canadian

Xander Schauffele (+2200) has never missed the cut in nine attempts at his national championship. The San Diegan has never cashed a check worse than T14. The two-time major champion, with both titles coming during the 2024 season at the PGA Championship and The Open, owns the best career scoring average in the field at the U.S. Open, 70.33. The 2018 edition, only his second after cashing T5 on debut at Erin Hills, saw him close with 68 to earn T6 money, the second top 10 in a streak of five straight, which would be broken with T14 in 2022. The 10-time winner on TOUR is searching for his first trip to the winner’s circle since the 2025 Baycurrent Classic. Another top-10 result at the U.S. Open would increase his streak to four consecutive T10 or better in major championships. In his career, he has cashed in 33 of 36 major championships. Incredible.

Making his 11th start in a major championship, Ludvig Åberg (+2200) owns paydays of T23 or better, including a trio of top-10 finishes, in six appearances. His debut in the U.S. Open was T12 at Pinehurst in 2024. He returned to Oakmont in 2025 but missed the cut. The two-time TOUR winner cashed T21 at the Masters and T4 at the PGA Championship this season but is without a victory since the 2025 Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines. A fantastic ball-striker, he sits second on TOUR in SG: Total.

Bryson DeChambeau (+3000) and the last winner at Shinnecock Hills, Brooks Koepka (+3500), are the only players entered this week with multiple U.S. Open victories. DeChambeau won the 2020 event at Winged Foot and the 2024 event at Pinehurst No. 2. He has not made the cut in the first two majors of 2026. Koepka, the last man to win back-to-back U.S. Opens (2017-18), withdrew Sunday morning at the RBC Canadian Open with a hand issue.

Odds of other past champions playing (not listed above):

2023: Wyndham Clark (+4000)
2019: Gary Woodland (+10000)
2016: Dustin Johnson (+15000)
2015: Jordan Spieth (+6500)
2013: Justin Rose (+4000)
2010: Graeme McDowell (+100000)

Hosting the national championship for the sixth time, the field of 156 players, including 2025 winner and defending champion J.J. Spaun (+5000) and 49 of the top 50 in the OWGR, will tackle the 7,440-yard par-70 layout in the town of Southampton on Long Island in New York beginning Thursday.

Here's a look at the odds for other notable players, with odds via FanDuel: