To play or not to play Scottie Scheffler. That’s always the question because we’re restricted to three starts per golfer per segment in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Scheffler’s roster management over time is a game within the game.

Of course, 36 percent of you didn’t hesitate at The American Express. That was an aggressive send, at least in the context of rationing Scheffler’s starts, but it paid off because he delivered a victory and many of you rapidly became targets for the rest of us. Your game now is to determine where to burn your last two starts, and I’m endorsing for the next one to be at the WM Phoenix Open.

As ranked in future possibilities below, the WM Phoenix Open is the second-smartest site to give him a go in Segment 1, and he was as easy and obvious a No. 1 in any of the hundreds of Power Rankings that I’ve written. Done and done.

Scheffler has been holding steady at 60 percent among rosters saved. While it’s a beefy cut objectively and more than 20 percent clear of the resurgent Sahith Theegala in second, it’s still much lower than I expected it to be when I first planted my eyes on it. Scheffler should be in the 80-90 percent range. Granted, there are many influences from which that measurement is derived but you’re going to see the occasional upper 70s and even the lower 80s for a guy at some point, but no one demands it as much as the reigning, four-time PGA TOUR Player of the Year right now.

Part and parcel with my expectation on Scheffler’s share was that we’d be duking it out with our other five charges, getting lucky with low rounds, bogey-free scores and perhaps an outlier on the podium. Although the robust field flattens ownership percentages – a good thing when we’re looking to make a move – churn overall will be limited to the fortunate few. The really lucky will log a massive week without Scheffler contributing, which, of course, requires him not to play well, but that’s a lottery ticket. It’s an unsustainable philosophy for success.

Gamers on board with Scheffler at PGA WEST have the advantage, so don’t forfeit it with an approach that would be the opposite to what yielded it in the first place.

Captain

• Scottie Scheffler … Argued above, and strategically for the push. And as a reminder, every time you decide to roster him, designate him as your captain. The only time when you should consider getting cute with that decision is if you’re chasing during the FedExCup Playoffs.

Other considerations

• Hideki Matsuyama ... Before Scheffler at TPC Scottsdale, there was Matsuyama, both in every fantasy format and the "One & Done." It’s been nine years now since the tail of the tandem of his consecutive victories here. And he’s logged only one top 10 since, but the fit and the form for the No. 4 in my Power Rankings support a pivot away from Scheffler even though conventional wisdom this early in the season does not.
• Si Woo Kim ... Here’s where things get really tasty. The No. 3 in the Power Rankings is one of many from a buffet of viable options. There’s someone for everyone this week. His sharpest angle is blistering form upon arrival, but his record here is sturdy, not spectacular. It lacks a top 10, but he’s been a machine for months. No matter whom you choose, it’s because you’re omitting Scheffler from your lineup entirely.

Rounding out the roster

Straight chalk, and I still have a chance to nibble away at my deficit because of the depth of the field.

My starters

• Hideki Matsuyama
• Maverick McNealy
• Scottie Scheffler (C)
• Cameron Young

My bench

• Xander Schauffele (1)
• Chris Gotterup (2)

Careful

For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings, which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.

• Brooks Koepka ... Now that he’s logged a start in his return, it’s fair to begin making decisions based on performance. The narrative at the Farmers Insurance Open (T56) was how poorly he putted – last in the field of 74 that cashed. It will improve if only because it’s the only direction it can go – although he did cite that he’s never putted great on the greens at Torrey Pines despite ranking eighth in conversion percentage inside 10 feet en route to a T4 at the 2021 U.S. Open – we need to continue to respect his relearning curve. TPC Scottsdale should help, but it’s been four years since he last pegged it here.

• Viktor Hovland ... He snuck into the Power Rankings at No. 15 for the reasons described, but he’s yet to resonate at TPC Scottsdale and didn’t appear in the last two editions. Checking in at almost 20 percent among rosters saved, he’s over-owned in the context of his absence of course success and field depth. You easily could build at least two rosters and still not need to dig this deep.
• Joel Dahmen ... An uncommon focus in this section, but he’s checking in at over 10 percent among rosters saved. No doubt that’s due primarily to his T7 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Everyone is rooting for him but he’s just 3-for-7 and without a top 40 at TPC Scottsdale. For the record, because he’s in this week’s field via a sponsor exemption, the top-10 exemption that would have spilled into the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches no longer applies.
• Akshay Bhatia ... Life is good for the recently married lefty, but it’s been months since he’s had something to celebrate inside the ropes. Already 0-for-2 this season with a pair of big scores, he could find some form at TPC Scottsdale where he finished T32 a year ago, but the stacked field dissuades us from the urge to reach. With ownership at just 4 percent, you tend to agree, but it’s still relevant to take the pulse of notables every now and then.

Future possibilities

NOTE: This section consists of notables in this week’s field for whom more than three starts may be considered in Segment 1 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple tournaments are listed (e.g., “1” for strongest, “2” for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change throughout Segment 1, no matter how many tournaments remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment.

• Sam Burns ... WM Phoenix Open (1); AT&T Pebble Beach Open (4); The Genesis Invitational (3)
• Corey Conners ... Arnold Palmer presented by Mastercard (1); THE PLAYERS Championship (2)
• Matt Fitzpatrick ... WM Phoenix (3); Arnold Palmer (1); THE PLAYERS (2)
• Ben Griffin ... Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches (2)
• Brian Harman ... THE PLAYERS (2)
• Viktor Hovland ... Pebble Beach (2); The Genesis (1); Arnold Palmer (4); THE PLAYERS (3)
• Si Woo Kim ... WM Phoenix (2); Pebble Beach (1); THE PLAYERS (3)
• Brooks Koepka ... WM Phoenix (1); Cognizant Classic (2)
• Hideki Matsuyama ... WM Phoenix (1); The Genesis (3); Arnold Palmer (5); THE PLAYERS (4)
• Maverick McNealy ... WM Phoenix (1); Pebble Beach (2); The Genesis (3)
• Collin Morikawa ... Pebble Beach (2); The Genesis (1); Arnold Palmer (4); THE PLAYERS (3)
• Xander Schauffele ... WM Phoenix (1); The Genesis (2); THE PLAYERS (4)
• Scottie Scheffler ... WM Phoenix (2); Pebble Beach (5); The Genesis (4); Arnold Palmer (1); THE PLAYERS (3)
• Jordan Spieth ... WM Phoenix (1); Pebble Beach (2)
• Sepp Straka ... Cognizant Classic (1); THE PLAYERS (2)
• Cameron Young ... WM Phoenix (2); The Genesis (1); Cognizant Classic (3); Arnold Palmer (4)

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET today.