Power Rankings: U.S. Open

In New York on Thursday, giants in the sport will drive between countless onlookers flanking them on both sides. There will be much cheering and celebration, as well as many interviews, all of which will generate memories and contribute to the experience of making history. Oh, and the 126th U.S. Open also will begin.

In fact, the third major of the year will lead off in the post-dawn light at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York. But soon thereafter, the New York Knicks will be lauded during a ticker-tape parade through the streets of Manhattan, approximately 85 miles as the Eastern Bluebird flies to the west. That’s what you get when you’re the champions of the NBA. For the first time in 53 years, the Knicks clinched the title on Saturday night in San Antonio.

There could be a study done on which is harder – navigating the NBA Finals for a ring or finishing atop the leaderboard at Shinnecock Hills. Both pursuits guarantee a champion, but there are no shortcuts to either. What the field of 156 has in store at one of the world’s greatest properties to test one’s skill, what it will take to join the Knicks as a winner, and much more is detailed below those projected to contend on Long Island.

In an ironic reversal of athleticisms this week, you’re more likely to witness a slam dunk on the golf course than courtesy of any of the guys paid to do it for a living on the hardwood, with the NBA having begun its offseason. However, even if there is a hole-out on the fly at Shinnecock Hills, it’ll be as unintentional as the alignment of the stars that has suddenly given regional sports fans a summer that they will never forget.

When it comes to host sites of the U.S. Open, Shinnecock Hills is the archetype for the preservation of par that the USGA covets, so it’s not a coincidence that the last U.S. Open that crowned its champion at par or worse was right here in 2018 when Brooks Koepka prevailed by one stroke at 1-over 281. Running it all the way back to its beginning, after hosting the second-ever U.S. Open in 1896, Shinnecock Hills didn’t take another turn for 90 years, and in the four contests since, it’s been a once-a-decade backdrop; the winners are a collective 4-under.

Along with the narrative of the premium on par is the subtext of how this tournament seeks to identify the best golfer. It could be argued, successfully, that no other course requires the most and the best from all who wage battle with it. It gives, and it takes all the while dangling the fact that signing for a 70 after every round could be good enough to win.

Shinnecock Hills is a stock par 70 that can stretch to 7,440 yards. That’s just five yards shorter than eight years ago, but it’s merely for the record. It’s impossible to feel that little of a difference in the aggregate. Instead, winds that will help in spots and punish in others will add or subtract much more than that, potentially on every hole given the strike. And that’s exactly what’s expected in the opening round. Swirling breezes and updrafts unique to Manhattan are one thing to promise the snow effect during the Knicks’ parade, while prevailing gusts from a southwesterly directly threatening 40 mph in the exposed expanse of Shinnecock Hills at the same time are quite another.

The invisible force helped balloon the opening-round scoring average in 2018 to 76.474, which means that a 6-over 76 wouldn’t be a horrible score to target to launch into this week. Winds are forecast to abate, but only relative to the rude greeting. Pushes will be omnipresent for the majority of the competition, but especially after the low 60 and ties are determined after two rounds are complete. That’s the cut at the U.S. Open. It could sprinkle at some point until then, while daytime highs will flirt with, if not exceed, 80 degrees throughout.

To the eye, Shinnecock Hills is considerably welcoming off the tee. The data confirms it. Generous landing areas yielded a field average of almost 10 (of 14) fairways hit per round eight years ago. Furthermore, muscle plays up enough to be a weapon, just not everywhere. Everything after the first stroke is downright dastardly.

In 2018, the course surrendered the second-fewest greens in regulation per round of 51 on the PGA TOUR that season. It also ranked longest in proximity to the hole with an array of splits up to 250 yards that slotted it longest or second-longest. Those who failed to generate an opportunity to break par then played from areas off greens that defined Shinnecock Hills as the hardest on which to save par in those circumstances. With 155 bunkers scattered everywhere, it’s notable to cite that the saving pars specifically from them were eighth-toughest. Put it all together, and precision on approach is paramount. Entrants are advised to take what the course gives off the tee and resist tempting the five-inch fescue rough that helps establish the corridors. One shot at a time.

At an average of over 8,800 square feet, the Poa annua greens are sizable, but landing areas, potential hole locations and straight putts are about as rare as the Knicks winning it all. With false fronts, infinity edges long and collection areas poised to humble even the most confident upon arrival, they are the visual representation of why two-putt pars are gold. In 2018, the putting surfaces ranked first in putts per green in regulation, conversion percentage inside 10 feet and approach putts (colloquially translated to lag putting). It also was second-hardest in both one-putt percentage and three-putt avoidance.

If all you want to know is the field scored overall in 2018, even that is fraught with a menacing warning. The field checked in at 74.650 across four rounds. It’s the highest score in relation to par at any tournament since par-70 Royal Birkdale stood tall at +4.869 for The Open Championship in 2008. Yes, that’s where this year’s Open Championship will be held, but that’s not the warning. This is the warning: The only two holes at Shinnecock Hills that averaged under par in 2018 were the par 5s – Nos. 5 and 16 – yet they combined for the highest scoring average of all par 5s that season at 4.89. The par 4s also ranked hardest as a group. The par 3s showed a modicum of mercy in slotting second.

Thirty-six of the competitors in the 2018 U.S. Open are back this week. Led by champion Brooks Koepka, the cohort includes the top four finishers and another four who recorded a top 10, so there is some valuable experience among the giants in this sport.

No two U.S. Opens are conquered the same, but the benefits for taking this one could feel lesser than maybe all others. Still, the champion, if eligible, will bank 750 FedExCup points and what guarantees to be a beefy paycheck. (The USGA will reveal the purse and breakdown soon.) He also will earn an exemption into the U.S. Open through 2036 and into the next five editions of the other three majors. Also, if eligible, he’ll be exempt both as a PGA TOUR member and into THE PLAYERS Championship through 2031.

ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE

PGATOUR.com’s Rob Bolton previews and recaps every tournament. Refer to the timing of his contributions below. He’s also active as @RobBoltonGolf on X where you can connect with him.

MONDAY: Power Rankings
TUESDAY: Sleepers; Expert Picks; Fantasy Insider
SUNDAY: Points and Payouts; Qualifiers

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