Draws and Fades: It's time to back young bucks in Lone Star State at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

The 2026 CJ CUP Byron Nelson is officially underway, and after the first round, Taylor Moore (+1300) leads the field with a 9-under 62.

Despite Moore holding the first-round lead, it is Brooks Koepka (+700) who holds the storylines. Koepka fired off an 8-under 63 and was the first-round leader after the morning wave finished. Koepka was dialed in all aspects of his game.

It comes as no surprise that Koepka had a fantastic ball-striking round. He ranked third in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds, per BetspertsGolf, and his numbers throughout most of the bag were strong. He was second in SG: Total, third in SG: Tee-to-Green, 23rd in SG: Off the Tee, and second in SG: Approach.

The one part of the bag he has struggled with was the flatstick, where he ranked 107th in the field.

But as great golfers do, Koepka has tried to find a remedy for his putting issues.

After the PGA Championship, he said he spent time at home in his putting studio working through different elements of his setup, alignment and stroke, trying to find those lost strokes and build momentum moving forward.

Koepka even went as far as changing his putter in hopes of finding something to carry him through the rest of the season.

So far, it has worked.

After the conclusion of his round, Koepka was first in the field in SG: Putting. As the day progressed, he slipped closer to 10th than he did first, but for a guy who had consistently been toward the bottom of the field on the greens over the last few events, he has to be thrilled with finishing inside the top 10 in SG: Putting and just one stroke off the lead.

But Moore and Koepka shouldn’t get too comfortable.

There is a bunched leaderboard behind them, with many golfers capable of making serious runs towards the top.

One notable aspect of the first round of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson is the change to the greens. They are more complex and require a bit more thought.

While they do look slightly firm, the damp conditions have made them much more receptive. The goal of bringing in Lanny Wadkins to redesign the golf course was to make it more difficult, firm up the greens and turn it into a second-shot course. Right now, though, with moist conditions and minimal wind, the golf course is still very gettable.

Pair that with a forecast over the next three rounds that looks very wet and rainy, and we could see just about anyone creep up the leaderboard and have a chance to win.

Anyone who is under par after the first round has a realistic shot to put together three strong rounds in a row and contend for the title.

Sam Ryder Top 20 (including ties), +460 FanDuel

By all means, do not go crazy betting Sam Ryder to finish inside the top 20. The price is very nice. Just remember, this should be a small investment.

I like Ryder to finish inside the top 20 this week. Despite finishing 3-under and tied for 45th, I do believe Ryder was hard done by and should have easily been higher on the leaderboard.

He got off to a fast start, firing a 33 on the front nine, but it was a disastrous finish. After getting all the way to 6-under, he triple-bogeyed the par-4 18th after hitting his second shot in the water.

I can forgive him for that. It was a poor drive that turned into a compound error after he tried to get a little too aggressive from the trap.

The reason I’m betting Ryder to finish inside the top 20 is not because of his T17 last week at Myrtle Beach. It’s because after one round, I think there is a correlation that could pay dividends by the end of the week.

I suspected that anytime there are new green complexes, especially those with ridges, movement, and a ton of undulation, they have a chance to favor good putters. Or at least players who putt well that week. Then you mix in the fact that this golf course is playing fairly easy, and it puts an even bigger emphasis on the flatstick. Most birdie fests are won by the guys who make the most putts.

What I noticed on the leaderboard is that most of the players inside the top four are dominating with the putter. Jesper Svensson gained nearly three strokes putting. Koepka and Moore both gained more than 2.5 strokes putting. Emiliano Grillo and Si Woo Kim gained nearly two strokes putting.

The lowest putting number from someone inside the top four was Kensei Hirata, who gained only +0.39 putting, but he also gained +2.46 around the greens.

So why Ryder?

Ryder is not overly long, and he is not going to be a massive gainer off the tee. But he can gain on approach, and he can putt very well. He did not have his best putting performance in the first round, and he did not gain many strokes on approach. But getting to 6-under before the disaster on 18, while not having his best stuff, tells me there is plenty of room for him to climb the leaderboard.

Of course, at +460, this is going to take a very big effort. But I do think the price is slightly in our favor.

Michael Thorbjornsen Top 10 (including ties), +105 FanDuel

If there is a golfer inside this clustered pack at 7-under or better that I think you should take a live bet on, it is probably Michael Thorbjornsen (+1600).

He fired a bogey-free 7-under 64 in a pretty fantastic round. He was a big gainer on approach, a big gainer tee to green, hit 10 of 14 fairways, and found 16 of 18 greens in regulation.

He probably did not face enough adversity, but I think his game fits golf courses where you need to hit fairways, hit greens, and make birdies. He is an absolute birdie maker, and he is a golfer who is going to put himself in position.

Will this be the tournament he wins? I’m not sure. But he is definitely positioned in a really good spot.

Blades Brown Top 20 (including ties), +140 FanDuel

OK, fine. I will bite.

I’m taking Blades Brown (+5000) to finish inside the top 20. I know I missed out on some value, but I wanted to see if the pressure would be too much for the young kid. After a 5-under 66 in the first round, I have no reason not to believe Brown is going to do everything in his power to earn temporary membership on the PGA TOUR.

What he needs is a solo 21st or better, and he will be able to play the rest of the season after unlocking unlimited sponsor exemptions.

But for Blades, it is more than just a need. The kid has a ton of game, and it was on display in the first round. He gained a whopping +2.14 strokes ball striking, via Data Golf, and he has already been a stud on both the PGA TOUR and Korn Ferry Tour.

He finished solo third at the Puerto Rico Open, solo third at the Club Car Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour, solo second at the Tulum Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour, and followed that up with a T9 at the Myrtle Beach Classic.

What I love about Brown’s game, and how it correlates to this golf course, is that the kid is an absolute birdie maker. He is second in the field over the last 36 rounds in birdie-or-better gained percentage. He is also strong on par 5s, long off the tee, and a fairly decent putter.

If he can keep the squares off his scorecard, he should continue to climb the leaderboard, and a top 20 finish is very much in play by the end of the week.

I think the world is rooting for him, and I want to be financially invested in Brown.