It wasn’t quite the fireworks of Thursday in Round 2 at the Valero Texas Open, but Brian Harman put the pedal down Friday at TPC San Antonio. A second-round 66 moved him to 12-under, opening a four-shot lead over the field and flipping the betting board heading into the weekend.

Harman’s ball-striking continued to impress, and the short game held up as he chases his fourth career win and first since The 2023 Open Championship. Keith Mitchell sits in solo second at 8-under, with Sam Ryder, Matt Wallace and Ryo Hisatsune tied for third at 7-under. Patrick Cantlay and Daniel Berger lurk at 6-under. Let’s check out the top betting options from FanDuel.

Updated odds to win Valero Texas Open (via FanDuel)

• +190: Brian Harman
• +750: Keith Mitchell
• +1100: Patrick Cantlay
• +1600: Daniel Berger
• +2000: Sam Ryder
• +2000: Matt Wallace

It’s shaping up to be a volatile weekend in Texas, where the Oaks Course can yield birdies but punishes wayward shots. Harman has the cushion, but there’s value further down the board as big names chase—and a few names at the top may not be built to last.

Here’s a look at players to look towards ahead of Saturday’s action, and those that could fade despite strong starts:

Draw

Daniel Berger +1600

Berger’s quietly trending in the right direction, and it might finally be his time. A second-round 68 moved him into a tie for fourth at 6-under, and his recent results suggest a breakthrough is brewing.

After missing much of 2023 with injury, Berger’s been on a steady climb. He’s made five straight cuts, including a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open, and hasn’t finished outside the top 25 during that stretch.

The putter has improved, ranking eighth this week in Strokes Gained: Putting, and his iron play—the backbone of his success pre-injury—is rounding back into form, sitting at 16th in SG: Approach. On Friday, he gained over a stroke and a half on the greens and looked in full control.

He’s still chasing, but if Harman stumbles at all, Berger is in the tier that could pounce. At +1600, you’re getting a high-ceiling option with the experience to close if he gets within striking distance on Sunday.

Fade

Keith Mitchell +750

Another Friday, another Mitchell sighting near the top of the board. But we’ve seen this movie before.

Mitchell opened white-hot with a 64 but returned to Earth with an even-par 72 on Friday. For the third straight event, he finds himself high on the board after 36 holes—despite not capitalizing in either of the previous two. He led or co-led after Round 1 at both the Valspar Championship and the Texas Houston Children’s Open, finishing T54 and T18, respectively.

The issue isn’t just the weekend fades—it’s the inconsistency tee-to-green. He gained over four strokes on approach Thursday, but that regressed to the mean Friday, where he lost almost two strokes. When the ball-striking dips even slightly, there’s little margin for error.

At +750, the value is gone. Mitchell’s track record over 72 holes this year doesn’t justify a single-digit number, especially chasing a red-hot Harman and with elite players just a couple shots behind.

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