Running with Rick: Shinnecock Hills poised to test golf's best as USGA’s greatest test

SOUTHAMPTON, N.Y. — Shinnecock Hills checks all the boxes as one of the greatest and most influential golf courses in the country, making it the perfect host for this week’s U.S. Open. It dates to 1894 and was one of the five charter clubs that formed the USGA.

Its sprawling links-style terrain, severe elevation changes and crowned greens make it a formidable challenge for even the best players in the world. When the U.S. Open was last played here in 2018, Brooks Koepka was victorious at 1-over par. The average winning score of the last four U.S. Opens at Shinnecock Hills is an astounding 1 under. It’s safe to say that anything in red figures this week is going to be very close to the top of the leaderboard – if not holding the trophy.

Mother Nature will have her say in this championship. The coastal winds off the bay are ever present, causing the 7,440-yard course to often play much longer than that. Its rugged style of patchy rough and fescue will create inconsistent results for those who miss the fairway off the tee. The fairways have been widened over the years, so there is a bit more wiggle room to miss, but more wayward balls will be punished harshly.

The edges of the greens are always deflecting shots. Sometimes they are sent to an awkward collection area on the short side, and other times misses will be sent 30 yards back down the fairway. However big the greens are in theory, they are much smaller in practice. The prudent player will simply aim at the middle of the green on every hole, but that is easier said than done.

Shinnecock Hills is certainly a links-style course, but with much more elevation change than you might see overseas. The back nine, in particular, will have players ascending nearly 400 feet of elevation. This will create a surplus of blind and uncomfortable shots, with players rarely being able to see where their ball lands.

This may be the USGA’s greatest test of golf.

Golf’s greatest test gets conquered by golf’s greatest player: Scottie Scheffler. If there is anyone with enough commitment to hit blind shots, it’s Scheffler. If there is anyone with the discipline to aim at the center of every green, it’s Scheffler. He’s built for tests like this.

There’s a reason why he’s better in major championships than in regular PGA TOUR events. It’s because his elite, well-rounded skill set and temperament are even more valuable in these setups. Scheffler has gained 2.54 strokes per round in his 27 major championship starts. That’s nearly a full stroke better than his 1.68 average in non-majors.

You can simply disregard the fact that Scheffler has “only” won once this year. That’s simply bad luck for a golfer who leads the TOUR in nearly every statistical category. He’s boasting a 2.33 strokes-gained average per round this year, with at least 0.42 coming in all four categories. You can’t stop him; you can only hope to contain him. Winning the U.S. Open would give Scheffler the career Grand Slam and another notch on his historic belt. He’s currently +455 to win, via DraftKings Sportsbook, and he’s my pick for the U.S. Open.

If it’s not Scottie Scheffler completing the career Grand Slam, then maybe it’s Ludvig Åberg getting his first major championship. There’s been very little to complain about with Åberg this year. He’s struggled a bit on Sundays, but he’s earned the right for criticism by being in contention as frequently as he has. He has six top-10 finishes this year but is still looking for that first trophy.

His tee-to-green numbers are spectacular, beating the TOUR by 1.25 strokes per round, and he recently switched to a mallet-style putter to hopefully shore up the rest of his game. The early returns have been positive, with Åberg gaining strokes putting in each of his last two starts. He’s third in total driving this year, which will be most beneficial at Shinnecock Hills. He may struggle around the green more than I would like, but he hits nearly 70% of his greens in regulation, so that flaw doesn’t often get exposed.

He finished T4 at Aronimink for the PGA Championship, another classic Northeast course with extreme putting complexes. It’s just a matter of time before he wins a major, and his price to do so this week is +2600. You could also consider his top-five price of +460.

Chris Gotterup has earned a T24 and a T10 at this year’s majors to go along with his two wins earlier this year. No matter how you slice it, this season has been a roaring success for one of golf’s best breakout stars.

From a statistical standpoint, Gotterup is a unique breed. He has a variety of ways to beat his peers, starting with his elite driving ability. He’s capable of gaining three strokes off the tee in a given tournament, something he’s done six different times this year. He adds to that with approach play that rises above many of his competitors. Just once in his last 13 measured starts has Gotterup failed to gain strokes on approach.

Despite being an elite ball-striker, he’s still very capable on the putting surfaces – something that is becoming much rarer on the circuit. Over his last 28 rounds, Gotterup has gained 17.67 strokes putting. There’s really no weakness in his game, and now he will go to a course that will allow him to cut some corners and put his driving distance to good use. I find Gotterup to be a valuable top-10 wager for this week, where his odds are currently priced at +340.

It’s been a special run for Ben Kohles, who is riding some serious momentum as he heads to Shinnecock Hills. He captured a victory just a few weeks ago on the Korn Ferry Tour, winning the BMW Charity Pro-Am presented by TD SYNNEX. He quickly bolted out of town to make his tee time for U.S. Open final qualifying, where he promptly punched his ticket to his third U.S. Open. With his confidence soaring, Kohles traveled to Toronto for the RBC Canadian Open and put together a T29 finish. 

The one thing Kohles makes clear is that he’s an accomplished ball-striker. He gained a ridiculous 10.22 strokes on approach during his Korn Ferry Tour victory, and he hasn’t lost strokes on approach in a measured event since April 2025. So what’s the catch?

Well, his putter. He’s routinely giving strokes back to the field on the putting surfaces. He even lost 4.57 strokes putting during his win. He did something that is hard to do – outhit a balky putter. Kohles rolled it well last week in Toronto, gaining strokes on the field. He put together a well-rounded finish that has me comfortable backing him in the top-20 market at +870.

It’s been a curious season for Hideki Matsuyama, who lost the WM Phoenix Open in a playoff to Chris Gotterup and posted stellar results out of the gate in 2026. However, his game has slumped, with his driver being the main culprit for his subpar results. To be clear, he still hasn’t missed a cut in 2026, and he has five top-30 finishes in his last eight starts – so “struggling” is relative.

However, he cannot hide from the fact that this is the worst driving year of his career, as he’s losing 0.28 strokes per round off the tee. On an average basis, it looks bad. When viewing each individual result, it’s still bad, but there might be a little silver lining.

I would categorize eight of Matsuyama’s 14 starts as “fine to good.” Those are starts where he’s gained strokes off the tee or lost fewer than one stroke over four rounds. I can live with any of those outcomes at Shinnecock Hills.

The problem is that he’s capable of losing three-plus strokes off the tee, which is something he’s done three different times this year. Three of the four worst driving weeks of his career have all come this season. I’m willing to take the calculated risk since the rest of his game is special and his putter has been a weapon in 2026. With expectations tempered, I’m targeting Matsuyama in both the top Rest of World (+760) and top-20 (+188) markets.

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