Horses for Courses: Patrick Cantlay eyes more success at Muirfield Village

The PGA TOUR train keeps on moving, and the next stop is the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday at Muirfield Village Golf Club.

This is always one of the better tests of golf. The ties to Jack Nicklaus make it special, but the course itself is what makes the tournament challenging and interesting. Located in Dublin, Ohio, the par-70, 7,569-yard, parkland-style layout demands accuracy off the tee, elite iron play and a short game that can save.

The past champions list speaks for itself. Scottie Scheffler (+230) is the defending champion, having successfully defended his title last year, and Patrick Cantlay (+3600), who is also in the field, has won this event multiple times. You don’t fake your way around Muirfield Village. The cream usually rises.

For us this week, modeling is going to be very important. The biggest focus for me will be Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, with a heavy emphasis on Strokes Gained: Approach.

The reason I think tee-to-green is going to be so important this week is because of how difficult the course setup is. The fairways at Muirfield Village are not overly long, and they are not insanely narrow, but they are difficult enough to hit. When you miss, the rough can be brutal. We are talking about some of the thickest rough players will see on TOUR, measuring around 4 inches.

Now mix in harder-to-hit fairways with thick rough and smaller greens that average around 5,000 square feet, and this becomes a complete test for the field. You need to drive it well, you need to be sharp with the irons, and when you inevitably miss greens, the around-the-green play needs to be sharp.

Here are the leaders in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last 36 rounds (Data via Betsperts):

• 1. Scottie Scheffler
• 2. Ludvig Åberg
• 3. Cameron Young
• 4. Matt Fitzpatrick
• 5. Rory McIlroy
• 6. Patrick Cantlay

Patrick Cantlay, Top 20 (+105 FanDuel)

Any time I see a golf course where there is a multiple-time champion in the field, I want to check the current form and see if he is a viable option to win that week. That brings me to Cantlay (+3600).

I don’t think you can talk anyone out of betting Cantlay at +3600 to win this tournament. Even with his win equity dipping since 2023, this golf course still makes a ton of sense for him. He consistently plays from the fairway, his wedges are good enough and when his putter starts rolling he becomes dangerous.

That said, I wanted to take the safer route with Cantlay because I’m not sure the win equity is fully there right now. Still, this is some of the highest pricing we have seen on him in probably five or six years, and all he has done this season is play consistent golf.

Yes, he finished T32 at THE PLAYERS Championship and T35 at the PGA Championship, but between those starts, he finished T7 at the Valspar Championship, T12 at the Masters, T8 at RBC Heritage and T10 at the Truist Championship.

Cantlay has basically had a complete gain everywhere but the putter. If he continues to rack up strokes tee-to-green, it is going to be hard for him not to finish inside the top 20.

As I said earlier, approach play is going to be a constant theme this week. Yes, off-the-tee play matters because you need to find fairways, but the greens at Muirfield Village are so small that you have to be dialed in with your irons.

That theme is consistent with the past champions. Last season, Scheffler was second in the field on approach when he won this tournament. In 2024, he was first on approach when he won here. Viktor Hovland is one of the few recent winners who was outside the top 20 in approach, but he made up for it by being one of the best players in the field with the putter.

And sure, putting is always important if you are going to win a golf tournament. At a place like this, with smaller greens and a course that puts such a premium on iron play, I’m much more interested in the players who are consistently creating good looks.

With that in mind, here are the leaders in SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds.

• 1. Ludvig Åberg
• 2. Adam Scott
• 3. J.J. Spuan
• 4. Matt Fitzpatrick
• 5. Kurt Kitayama
• 6. Scottie Scheffler

Ludvig Åberg to win (+1600)

The price on Åberg is not exactly the sexiest, so I understand if there is some hesitation when it comes to betting him to win this week. But if we were going to design a horse for this course, it would probably look a lot like Åberg.

He is first in SG: Approach, as we can clearly see on the list, and he is also second in SG: Tee-to-Green. All he has done this season is play really good golf.

There are really only two things that have held him back. The first is the Sunday scaries. He has put himself in contention a few times and had some painful Sundays. But that is also exactly what you want. You want a golfer who is consistently giving himself chances to win.

The second is the putter. It has not been great, but even with a less-than-stellar putter, his worst finish over the last few months was T37 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Outside of that, he has not finished worse than T21, which came at the Masters.

Åberg is consistently putting himself in position. He is a really good golfer, and this is a really good fit for his game.

Think about it this way. Torrey Pines set up as a strong course fit for Åberg, and he went out and won there. Muirfield Village feels like another course that should suit him. It is long, demanding off the tee, puts a real premium on finding fairways, and has smaller greens that can help mask some of the putting concerns.

That still feels a little strange to say because Åberg is not a bad putter by any means. He just is not one of the best putters in the world. But with the way he is playing, even an average putting performance gives him a chance to win.