After a decade-long hiatus, the PGA TOUR returns to Trump National Doral this week—the first TOUR event here since the 2016 WGC-Workday Championship. Fewer than 20 players in this field have teed it up in competition at Doral, so course history will be lacking and outdated. However, we should have a decent idea of what the players will face this week in Miami.

The “Blue Monster” nickname is certainly fitting because this venue will stretch out over 7,700 yards as a par 72. Of course, playing at sea level, this will effectively be one of the longest courses on the schedule this season.

Much of the yardage can be found on the four par 5s, which consume a whopping 2,443 yards by themselves. That’s a 610-yard average, which would rank behind only Oakmont CC as the longest average par-5 length dating back to the start of last year.

In true Florida golf fashion, there is water everywhere that comes into play on both tee shots and approach shots. It will demand power off the tee but will punish wayward shots with penalties. While we are certainly doing some guesswork about the setup specifics for this week, there’s a really good chance that the winning score will be in the single digits under par. Four rounds of 70 (2-under) may truly have you in contention by the time we reach week’s end. Of course, that’s up to the tournament crew and Mother Nature, but it’s something to consider. The value of pars and bogey avoidance will definitely increase this week.

My fingers are starting to build the muscle memory of typing “Cameron Young” so frequently, but here we are again. The man is having a “Player of the Year”-type campaign, gaining +1.63 strokes per round to the field. That’s the third-best mark behind Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa in this field.

That massive +1.63 per-round number gets split across all four facets of his game, proving how well-rounded he has become. It’s +0.71 strokes Off the Tee, where he is both highly accurate and incredibly long. That’s a skill set that will be in high demand this week at Doral. He adds another +0.55 strokes on Approach thanks to his well-above-average ball-striking, which ranks him inside the top 20 in approach play.

Despite having elite power, his short game is deft. He refuses to make bogeys, ranking fifth in bogey avoidance. He successfully scrambles over 67% of the time, which is top 15 on TOUR. His worst attribute is his putter, which still gains him +0.17 strokes per round. I could keep gushing, but I’ll stop there—consider Cameron Young to win the Cadillac Championship at +1475 via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Speaking of bogey avoidance, let’s continue with Rickie Fowler, who is also inside the top 10 in that category. He makes a bogey just 11.63% of the time, which will help close the gap between Fowler and his peers, who often make more birdies than he does. Fowler isn’t an elite birdie maker, so he will be rewarded on tougher courses where the value of par increases. He missed two straight cuts prior to the Masters and failed to qualify for the first major of the year.

Despite that setback, he got right back into form at Harbour Town, where he finished T8 among a stacked field. He’s one of the few players who has teed it up at the Blue Monster in his career. While I’m not putting much stock in things that happened over 10 years ago, it’s nice to see that Fowler has three top-12 finishes in six starts at this venue. Fowler’s finishing position markets are intriguing, and I favor the top-10 position, which is currently listed at +270.

The indicators are flagging Viktor Hovland as a player on the verge of breaking through. His trip to Harbour Town was a tale of two Viktors. For the first two rounds, he looked unbeatable. He gained 10 strokes on the field, was throwing darts, making every putt, and played in the final group on Saturday. That quickly fell off a cliff as he gave back all his putting gains and struggled to hit a solid approach shot over the final two rounds. He would fall to a T42 finish.

The last eight rounds for Hovland have been incredibly volatile, but they are moving in the proper direction. His approach play has been excellent overall, beating the field in 13 of his last 16 events. He’s starting to figure out the driver, having gained strokes in each of his last three starts. It’s worth noting those three starts came at the Copperhead Course, Augusta National and Harbour Town—all very different venues.

He doesn’t lack upside; he lacks consistency. When he finds it, he will blitz the field. I would like to participate in the upside that Hovland offers, which can be found at +530 for a top-five finish.

For me, Tommy Fleetwood is the “X factor” of this event, meaning he could win or finish dead last, and I’m not really sure which is more likely—but let’s figure it out. Starting with the bad, Fleetwood has lost strokes from tee to green in two straight starts. That’s something he hasn’t done in over a year. Even worse, both weeks included losses on approach, which are more difficult to ignore. While it was 11 years ago, Fleetwood has played Doral once—in the 2015 WGC event. He finished T71 that week and beat just one golfer in the field.

Now for the good: that two-week stretch is really the only blemish on Fleetwood’s recent resume. He’s still gaining +1.01 strokes per round this year and +1.44 per round going back to the start of 2025. That latter rate is the second-best of anyone in this field, behind only Scottie Scheffler.

His well-rounded game gives him a variety of paths to the top of the leaderboard, and he took last week off from the Zurich Classic, giving him time to address any flaws. Fleetwood is an appealing “game theory” option, where he will be more valuable in formats that reward ownership leverage. I also think he’s worth a top-10 wager at +170.

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